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Out of “The keys of the week“We will try to bring together in a few lines the data to consider in the week that begins and in particular the most important variables that concern the investor. What the market is watching and expecting for the next 5 days.”
1 dollar
Distance to the official dollar:
Alternative dollar recovery and slight increase in gaps. The government has decided to reduce the interest rate on fixed terms as well as the interest rate for the various placements on the market. Today, savers have no options for real positive interest rates and must decide whether to suffer large losses in the face of inflation (inflation of 30% per month is estimated on a fixed term that pays 9% per month) or to take refuge in inflation The dollar knows that it is difficult for the dollar to remain calm in the face of these price increases.
However, if what we experienced last week is a reversal of the trend of recent weeks, we will know clearly over time This gap has become cheap under the current conditions.
2. Prices
Traditional fixed term: 9.04% TEM
UVA fixed term: 12.8% for the current month and an estimated 17.1% and 19% for the following months, according to the latest REM (Market Expectations Survey)
In addition to the reduction in the interest rate of the traditional fixed terms, even in the midst of an acceleration in inflation, there is the extension of the minimum term of the fixed terms from 3 to 6 months, which gives the saver the opportunity to lock up their money for half a year or lose out against inflation and watch your money liquefy.
It could be a mistake not to give savers the opportunity to protect their money with $12 billion on fixed terms.
3. Actions
Merval: 929,704.19 -1.98% weekly
Merval in US Dollars: 955.36 -5.12% weekly
S&P 500: 4,769.83 0.32% weekly
Local market: Against a backdrop of high volatility, the week ended with a small decline and the year with real gains of more than 60%. The challenges of the coming year are reflected in new opportunities, but also greater risks. The new government has maintained an economy with inflation of around 200% per year and is targeting a recession to curb prices. It is a difficult scenario for the development of companies and selectivity will become noticeable as the weeks go by.
US market: A year in which the interest rate hike heralded poor results for the economy, leaving American companies up 25% in the S&P 500 and 50% in the NASDAQ.
The market expects interest rates to fall starting in March, improving the outlook for the American stock market. Likewise, some profit-taking is to be expected in the middle. We have to be careful.
The challenges of the coming year are reflected in new opportunities, but also in greater risks for the market
4. Bonuses
Risk country: 1,906 42 p
Dollar bonds: The climb, which was very good, is running out. The market will look to see results to confirm new increases. The economic results will logically take time, but to maintain these values it will be necessary to show political results in order to generate positive expectations about the economic future.
Bonds in pesos: With a negative and strong price, the market turned to inflation-adjusted bonds given the current price increase. Nowadays, all options in pesos are expensive and this can at any time lead to significant losses or portfolio changes towards dollars by taking advantage of the small exchange rate differences.
5. Virtual wallets
Virtual wallets have grown every year, and in 2023 they had the special flavor of being an important haven to prevent accelerating inflation from eroding the purchasing power of the money we use every month. This further increased his commitment. The change in monetary policy that led to a fall in interest rates makes Wallets also start paying less interest.
As the fixed terms in the portfolio expire, the returns also fall.
A month December The performances were as follows:
- Payment market: 92.56% TNA
- Orange X: 98.33% TNA
- Personal payment: 99.53% TNA
- Uala: 95.66% TNA
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