you only enter with more than $ 1 million

This wholesale market was in operation before the arrival of the new controls, but it took its own flight this week. It is “the freest legal dollar”

The new measures of the Central Bank and the National Securities Commission (CNV) on the operation for the acquisition of dollars in the Cash With Liquidation market (CCL) at the beginning of this week They revitalized other legal channels to buy dollars and turn them abroad and, thus, a new price of the dollar was added to the reference values ​​for the exchange market: the “SENEBI dollar” (Bilateral Negotiation Segment).

It should be remembered that, until last week, the maximum weekly bonds that clients of the Settlement and Clearing Agents (ALyCs), stock traders that are not their own portfolio, could sell to buy CCL was 100,000 per week. And now, they can only buy 50,000.

Also, until last week, you could trade around US $ 30,000 with the AL30 bond and without limit with the GD30. But now, the cap is around $ 30,000 a week for both. Thus, the BCRA and CNV regulations put a lock more to the transaction of CCL and there are cases of people who were left with their dollars “stranded” in limbo since they have not been able to make their sales because the new measure seized them in the middle of the operation.

“In fact, a client of mine who received a very large compensation, planned to buy MEP and CCL and kept the bonds locked. He will have to wait three weeks to be able to finalize his plans as a result of the reduction of the quota,” says Mauro Cognetta, financial advisor and director of Big River.

However, when the measure was known, some experts explained that this did not imply that the client who wanted could not sell bonds through the wholesale channel, through the SENEBI, which, in fact, was always the place where large volumes were operated. What does this imply? That not everyone can access it, due to the amounts required to enter.

A characteristic of SENEBI is that the price of the CCL that is negotiated there is agreed between two parties.

What is SENEBI and how does it work?

According to official sources to iProfesional, SENEBI is a round of Stock Exchanges and Markets of Argentina (ByMA) and, therefore, in general lines, operating there has the same conditions as in the open market. “This implies, for example, that If a subject is not authorized to operate CCL, he cannot do so in this segment, “they indicate.

Likewise, the operations carried out in that segment are recorded and must be reported to BYMA at the end of the round. It is very important to note that it does not work with a reference price (that is, it is not a question of supply and demand), but the price is agreed in a negotiation between the two parties involved, a bidder and a demander.

This means that it is a market whose prices do not appear on traders’ screens and are often above average. The parties agree on a figure and close the operation, without any limit or information to the market of what the exchange rate is. But, if there are substantial differences with the screen price (the retail CCL price), it is possible that a complaint will be initiated before the Financial Information Unit (FIU).

“To operate in this square, there is a minimum transaction amount of $ 1 million, which is equivalent to around US $ 6,000, the commission to be paid for the operations carried out in that market is not preset and they are not covered by BYMA’s mandatory guarantee fund, “says a market source.

As previously stated, this Cash With Settlement will continue to operate freely and the Stock Exchange companies will not have nominal limits to operate with their own portfolio.

The retail client does not have the possibility of entering SENEBI due to the values ​​it handles

New regulation, new role for this dollar

Although it worked before the new restrictions, this market was not diffused because the average prices registered in it were very similar to those of the CCL dollar. However, these days, the dollar SENEBI“is becoming a new reference price.

It is the price that best reflects the reference price of the North American currency because it arises from the free and private exchange between a foreign company and a local company“, points out Sergio Morales, CEO of Interfinance.com.ar.

The expert explains that “the search to externalize assets by Argentine companies does not generally compensate the interest in entering foreign currency into the country, so its price ends up being very similar to the informal dollar, although with the difference that we refer to an operation electronic and completely legal. ”

A) Yes, while yesterday the CCL was trading around $ 167, the SENEBI was around $ 170. However, Cognetta explains that it is a problem that the SENEBI begins to take off more than the CCL and becomes a reference price for the market because “its price is not transparent to the public and, although the amount that was operated at the end of the day, it is not so easy to know how its value is calculated “.

The truth is that operator volumes were also boosted by the arrival of the new measures, given that, up to that moment, 30% were operated in the PPT market (traditional by screen) and 70% in SENEBI (over the counter- OTC), but after the arrival of regulation, this relationship was altered.

“On the first day, the ratio became 85% SENEBI and 25% PPT, although in the following three days it fell almost to the usual average level (70/30)”, describes the specialist. He points out, however, that “we must give it more time to see how the market is accommodating because it is still a few days”, but does not rule out that it will settle around 15% / 85% in the coming months.

In this context, Morales anticipates that the dollar “SENEBI” will continue to exist as a reference, forever and when these measures are in force.

“It should be remembered that this strategy by the Government is aimed at having greater control over financial dollars, which are public and cause a greater impact on the population on the eve of an electoral process,” he says.

For this reason, it does not rule out that the new measures remain in force at least until the elections are held.

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Cheap cars, auction: models auctioned from $ 275,000

The online auction is carried out by the Fiat finance company. It will include 15 lots that will have offers starting at $ 225,000. The details

Just hours after closing, Fiat’s finance company is auctioning 15 collateral recovery units on Friday, July 16, starting at 11 a.m.

There will be offers that start from $ 275,000, in vehicles that are not more than 4 years old. Some of the models are offered for half or less of their actual value.

It is about 15 units of pledge recovery (article 39) among which are different Fiat models, such as Argo, Cronos, Palio, Punto, Mobi, Fiorino and Toro, among others; some with relatively few kilometers.

The auction will be made through the Narvaezbid platform.

Some of the auction models

One of the offers is that of a 2018 Fiat Cronos Drive with a 1.3-liter engine has CNG equipment, and has 124,728 kilometers traveled. His current bid is $ 550,000.

Your current bid is $ 550,000

There is also a red 2018 Fiat Palio Attractive with 5 doors, for a starting value of $ 50,000. It has approximately 37,387 km and today the offer is already for $ 525,000. The vehicle, in good general condition, presents debts for $ 159,478, for patent and traffic violations.

This model has approximately 37,387 km

There is another Palio Attractive, also from 2018, with 34,509 kilometers, and with a current value of $ 500,000. Presents debts for one $ 350,000, in concept of patent and traffic violations

This Palio Attractive presents debts for one $ 350,000

Within the lots there is a Fiat Argo Drive 1.3, model 2018, with 47,133 kilometers. His current bid is $ 725,000. Presents debts for one $ 180,000, in concept of patent and traffic violations.

The current offer for this Fiat Argo is $ 725,000

In addition, there are four utility vehicles with patent debts and infringements: Fiat Fiorino 2017 (from $ 350,000), Fiat Fiorino 2018 ($ 425,000) Doblo Cargo 2017 ($ 375,000) and Toro Freedom 4×4 2019 pickup ($ 2,075,000).

All the vehicles in this auction are located in a sector of the Carrefour parking lot in the town of San Fernando, Greater Buenos Aires. Those interested in seeing them can send an email to [email protected] or call the phones 11 2150-5850 or 114742-5850.

How to participate in the auctions

In order to participate in the auction, the interested party has to enter the Narvaezbid platform and create a user.

Subsequently, the expenses and conditions will be sent by mail so that you can carry out the online offer. The procedure is free.

Next, you need to make a deposit as a guarantee of the offer. In the case of cars, it is approximately $ 40,000.

Once the auction is over, the house will refund 100% of the surety insurance. This will happen in all cases, whether winning or not.

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Why the Market Expects More Tough Dollar Restrictions

In the midst of the countdown to the elections, the Government knows that it is facing a period of decline in Central Bank reserves

The recent movements of the BCRA and the CNV in order to beef up the stocks exchange rate shows that the Government will use all monetary and exchange rate instruments to avoid a strong outflow of dollars in the months prior to the November legislative elections and a devaluation of the peso.

The country is less than two months from a STEP and four from an election, with the aggravating circumstance of still not having closed an agreement with the IMF, with which some 5,000 million dollars will expire between next September and December.

The authorities have under analysis three “taps” where the dollars could go:

1. The official exchange market, where a more strengthened restraint could be imposed on the demand for dollars of individuals and companies or more restricted on imports.

two . Payments abroad, using the SDRs of the International Monetary Fund and stretching payments like what is left with the Paris Club

3. Alternative financial markets, with more regulations and new reinforcements to the stocks of “counted with liquid” (CCL) operations, such as the recent ones taken by the CNV and the BCRA,

The latter is the new tap that was opened to the BCRA. Specifically, it was opened at the end of last year in the midst of the escalation of alternative dollars and with a gap that exceeded 120%, while now it reaches an average of 85% with an official dollar of 96 pesos and a parallel close to the 178 pesos.

To stop the rise in the CCL last year, the BCRA devised a financial strategy in the bond market by selling and buying securities where the net was transformed into an outflow of dollars that the BCRA did not expect.

In times of tension last year, before October 22, when the BCRA tightened the stocks, it sold around u $ s15 to 20 million daily, an amount similar to the one he has been selling in recent weeks.

The new restrictions of the BCRA and the CNV point to tighten controls to reduce the daily dollar sale amount. The objective is to stop the rise in alternative dollars and the gap, using more and more restrictions than selling dollars.

The Minister of Productive Development, Matías Kulfas, yesterday defended the application of these new restrictive measures in the exchange market.

At the end of the economic cabinet meeting that took place in the Government House, Kulfas affirmed that the decisions of the Central Bank and the CNV to limit the cash market with liquidation “are different measures that have been implemented with a clear objective that is to manage in an efficient way a scarce good that is the dollars “.

In the official exchange market, a more reinforced clamp on the demand for dollars could be imposed

In the end, the Government is preparing for a period of decline in international reserves of the BCRA, as a result of a lower supply of dollars from the export sector, particularly the oil complex. In parallel, he expects an increase in the demand for dollars for imports and higher payments of public debt to international organizations.

There are several factors that converge so that the situation can get complicated in the immediate future. Among these we can highlight the low level of net reserves, a very unbalanced macroeconomy on the fiscal, monetary and inflationary front and a delay exchange rate that is becoming increasingly evident due to the rise in the exchange gap between the official dollar and alternative dollars, which is now reaching 80 percent.

Is gap is the one that causes a demand additional of dollars in the official market, because the dollars to import and to pay debt are cheaper than the alternative dollars.

In addition, the official export dollar is not competitive, therefore there is no incentive to export goods and services. At present the net reserves they reach the 7,000 million dollars.

While last December they totaled about 2,700 million dollars. They could increase in September if the IMF contributes to Argentina the equivalent in SDRs for about 4.3 billion dollars.

The economist Carlos Melconian believes that “the BCRA will try to take care of net reserves and that the gap does not scale more than historical levels. They are goals that can collide with each other: sitting on the reserves versus sitting on the gap. 70/80% is a difference between the official dollar and the alternatives that can contaminate the behavior of the supply and demand of dollars in the official market, very close to influencing the formation of some prices and impacting inflation “.

For his part, the economist Salvador Distéfano, affirms that “it is probable that the gap will reach 120% and this means that we will see a blue at a price between $ 200 and $ 240, because the dollar will be a refuge for many Argentines looking forward to the end of the year. ”

The Government is preparing for a period of decline in the BCRA’s international reserves

The first problem sitting on net reserves and the gap is the September and November elections. There is a second problem, which is the renegotiation of a new agreement with the IMF.

Next year, the foreign exchange market will be Super stressed and public debt payments in dollars will not be zero like this year, but will exceed US $ 4 billion. With respect to the official market, the BCRA will have to be much more alert to the foreign exchange trade surplus. On the export side, seasonally the bulk of the harvest has already been sold, while the pre-financing of exports will surely turn around.

While on the side of the imports, Purchases of goods and services abroad are already around US $ 5 billion per month: low for a serious economic reactivation and high for the current level of exports even with “super soybeans.” With more even supply and demand, the BCRA’s purchases will be reduced and spaced and the BCRA could have to sell dollars.

Another of the canillas open is the use of Bookings to pay foreign public debt that has been leaking for a long time. What is worrying is the debt that must be paid to the IMF until the renegotiation is completed.

On the other hand, the Government awaits the SDRs of the organism with which it will surely cancel the capital maturities of next September and December. And you will have to choose whether or not to sign an agreement to finance the debt that begins to mature in March 2022.

The debt with the IMF is not the only thing, since in the remainder of this year there are about US $ 1.5 billion from other organizations, the quota of the Paris club and about US $ 200 million that must be paid to the bondholders. that entered the exchange.

The conclusion is that the more the BCRA wants to take care of net reserves, the exchange rate gap is likely to rise, but the government will resist devaluing the peso in the official market.

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How sick do you get from the delta variant if you are vaccinated? – Wel.nl

Now that the delta variant is rapidly spreading, you may start to fear that you will still get sick despite your vaccination. But that chance is very small, explains immunologist Marjolein van Egmond at Op1.

“In principle, the vaccines are very good,” says the immunologist. The protection is between 60 and 95 percent. “That is to ensure that you do not get sick at all. All vaccines offer around 85 to 90 percent protection against serious illness or hospitalization.”

Nevertheless, the number of hospital admissions rose in England and that increase is also expected here. “It’s not that nobody comes to the hospital who is vaccinated at all, but in general it’s really the unvaccinated people.”

Ultimately, hundreds of corona patients can end up on the IC. “That is also the reason that nightlife has been reversed at lightning speed. With these types of infection numbers, it will trickle down to older groups.”

Bron (nen): Metro
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more experts warn that it could cross this threshold

With an expected inflation of 25% in the second semester, economists do not rule out that the blue will follow in its footsteps and accelerate its evolution. This foresee

On Tuesday, the price of blue calmed down a bit and fell $ 2, to $ 176, after a Monday in which it had reached its maximum price so far in 2021, when it touched $ 180, as a result of a rise of $ 5 in a single day. A) Yes, the gap between the illegal price and the wholesale price was close to 85%.

The jump, according to specialists, was as a consequence of the new measures for the operation of bonds for the purchase of the dollar Cash With Liqui (CCL), which anticipates a bullish outlook in the exchange market. So, beyond the eventual decline, it appears that the illegal dollar has not yet peaked.

This is what the economist of the Eco GO consultancy Sebastián Menescardi suggests to iProfesional, stating that “the price of blue is likely to trend upward, given the usual dollarization prior to electoral periods and the inflationary context, a situation that, in addition, is exacerbated these days by the greater retail demand that seeks to protect the Christmas bonus and higher disposable income “.

As the blue rises and its difference with the officer widens the gap

It is still missing for the expected maximum

With this price and with the proximity of the electoral process, which generates a tendency towards dollarization on the part of savers, more voices indicate that it is going to be worth $ 200 in the coming months.

“Towards the end of the year, the exchange rate gap will be expressed in a real dollar between $ 190 and $ 200Although the Government seeks to comply with the official budget exchange rate of $ 102, “the economist Carlos Melconian warned a few days ago. And he is not the only one who indicates it.

The economic, financial and business analyst, Salvador Di Stéfano, does not hesitate to affirm that eThe gap is likely to be 120%. “This means that we will see a blue priced between $ 200 and $ 240 because the dollar is going to be a refuge for many Argentines towards the end of the year, “he says.

In the same vein, Christian Buteler, an expert investment economist, assures that, although it is very difficult to put a price on the blue dollar, he does not doubt that it can reach $ 200 or $ 220 by the end of the year.

However, he points out that “we are talking about a 17% rise, while inflation is going to be around 25%, so it goes to higher than that percentage. “He warns that it is impossible to separate these two elements, especially when we talk about the blue, a dollar in which the Government cannot intervene, at least directly, as it does with the financial and official.

Towards the elections, a rise in the dollar is seen.

Towards the elections, a rise in the dollar is seen.

The reasons for the rise

When looking for an explanation for this rise, Di Stéfano begins by describing the sequence of the dollar this year. “It had an extraordinary effect, which was the payment of the wealth tax. When the payment of this extraordinary contribution was determined, the gap began to fall because those who had to pay it sold dollars to do so and the blue remained very stable,” he says. .

This happened in January 2021 and, in March of this year, the gap between blue and official reached 54%. The blue became the cheapest dollar on the market and it ranked below the solidarity, the MEP and the CCL.

But Di Stéfano points out that, once this tax was canceled, people began to buy back those dollars they had sold and a sequence began. “The gap went from 54% to 84% today and, today, the blue is at $ 176,” he describes.

This, according to their analysis, responds to the fact that There is a general feeling in society that spending is going to increase strongly in the face of the lectures since we have a drag on a rise in pandemic spending and a loss of income due to the closure of activities due to the pandemic.

“The effect of the pandemic generates less public income and this adds to the fact that pandemic and electoral spending will increase the deficit. As Argentina does not have international credit and has very little domestic credit,” he says. This means that the Government is having to resort to the monetary issue to finance the public budget and, faced with this situation, people try to cover themselves by buying dollars.

The BCRA has firepower, but the blue escapes its orbit of intervention.

The BCRA has firepower, but the blue escapes its orbit of intervention.

What to do to control it?

The problem is that the government has little influence in the illegal dollar market. So how can you counteract this upward trend? Menescardi, points out that his best tool is to reduce the trajectory of the inflation and your expectations, to improve the real yields of the rates in pesos and to slightly calm the demand for blue.

Along the same lines, Buteler indicates that, “if you want to stop it, you must control the inflation first of all. “Note that another possibility is to continue intervening the other markets of the dollar to keep them quiet but that, to do so, the Government would have to eat part of the buffer of reserves that it made this year as a result of the liquidation of soybeans and the Extraordinary Contribution of the Great Fortunes.

He warns that this strategy will work or not depending on how many pesos he dumps into the market.

As iProfesional reported, from November of last year to June the monetary authority would have used about 1,100 million to contain the gap. In the last two weeks, due to the greater pressures -according to the market- he had to “spend” a total of US $ 200 million.. This led the BCRA and the CNV to impose new restrictions on the operation of the CCL and the MEP.

The truth is that, today, the Government has room to intervene and a drastic jump is not in sight for now, but it ensures that everything will depend on how many pesos there are in the market.

Thus, Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica says that “the high power of fire that the BCRA has today, with the direct intervention selling securities that it has in its portfolio and, in turn, operating on the expectations by means of the futures market, they allow us to infer that it can keep the gap between the CCL and the official dollar controlled for at least the next six months “.

If so, consider that, with a gap like the current one (at 74%), it is logical to expect a financial dollar about $ 190 by the end of the year and, although Caprarulo considers it unwise to make projections for the price of blue given the small size of that market and the high volatility it presents, taking into account that the CCL is usually a parameter for the price of illegal, there is consensus between several analysts in that we will have a blue of between $ 200 and $ 250 for December.

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‘Don’t let people get Parkinson’s unnecessarily’ – Wel.nl

The authoritative neurologist Bas Bloem of Radboudumc looks at the increasing numbers of people with Parkinson’s with anger. The victims often did not need to get sick. Pesticides can cause the brain disease, yet a ban has not been forthcoming. “But it’s damn urgent! How do we explain to next generations that they got Parkinson’s because we were hesitant to take action?”

Bloem is known worldwide as an expert, he has seen for years how this ‘horrible brain disease’ destroys the lives of his patients. He is convinced that chemical (pesticides) agents are an important cause. This is also confirmed all over the world. However, farmers may continue to use the life-threatening substances. It is primarily the farmers themselves who run the risk of Parkinson’s due to their use of pesticides. “So they are victims themselves, I do not consider them as perpetrators,” Bloem tells De Stentor. “It is the government that must intervene.” But the people living in the vicinity of the spraying farmers are also at risk: “We find the pesticides on their kitchen table and in the diapers of their babies.”

And there are studies showing that people are also exposed to pesticides when they eat sprayed fruits and vegetables. The exact effect of the poison on our food is still under investigation.

Bron (nen): The Stentor
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Should you invest in dollars or a fixed term ?: experts’ verdict

With the beginning of the second semester, a period full of questions begins to pass, especially on the political and economic front.

“In a context in which the long term is the end of the month, the medium term next week and the short term tonight, planning what to do with money could be classified as toxic and full of risks,” says a seasoned traded in the financial market.

It is not necessary to do a very deep memory exercise to agree with him, especially if you take into account the shocks that the local financial market suffered from April 2018 onwards.

But while the past can no longer be modified, the future is particularly uncertain due to the sum of factors that are added daily to the decision board.

For example, there are several milestones that cannot stop appearing on any agenda from now until the end of the year, among which we can mention the progress of the Covid-19 vaccination program, the negotiations with the IMF, the pressures that may arise. in the foreign exchange market once the liquidation of agricultural exports (and now with falling prices) and, from a political point of view, everything concerning the results of the PASO in September and the mid-term elections in November.

It clearly appears that there are too many ingredients for a cocktail that can make more than one person dizzy. saver what should you decide what to do with your money in the next six months, even more so if you do not want to venture into more complex instruments than a fixed term or the purchase of dollars.

The elections add an extra factor of uncertainty to investors

What to invest in?

“In the world of finance we all make mistakes, but it is best to do it scientifically,” reasoned an experienced banker with extensive experience in both public and private sector entities. And surely one way to do it is by appealing to the information that the Central Bank usually publishes under the name of REM or “Market Expectations Survey, in which the results of the survey carried out among a large number of consultants, independent analysts, universities, etc. are presented.

According to the monetary authority, “the REM consists of a systematic monitoring of the main short- and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts that specialized local and foreign people usually make on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy.”

From the recently published survey, The monthly estimates referring to the evolution of consumer prices, interest rates and the wholesale exchange rate were taken and three assumptions were made about the way in which the gap between the blue and the official dollar will move.

From the table it appears that in the quarter from july to september the best investment would be dollar, in case the gap between official and blue climbs from the current 82% to 90% at the end of the quarter.

On the other hand, if the current level were maintained, there would be a virtual tie between the fixed term adjustable by UVA and the traditional one, since both would have a profitability of 8.7%. Thus, they would beat blue, which would offer a 6 percent.

Regarding the fourth quarter, which runs from October to December, always according to the REM, the best option would be the dollar in two of the three scenarios. That is: that the gap between the parallel and the official climbs to 90% or even, up to 100 percent.

In these two scenarios, the profitability would be 11.6% and 14.3%, respectively, compared to a gain of 8.7% and 8.8% that the traditional fixed term and the one adjustable by UVA would obtain.

The level of the gap between blue and officer will be key in the “war” with fixed terms

Regarding the result that could be obtained by maintaining the same option over time, there is a virtual tie between the two placements in pesos, since both would provide a yield just above 18%, and the dollar blue, as long as the gap remains at current levels of 82 percent.

However, these results could be different if the difference between the marginal dollar and the wholesale dollar shoots up above 90 percent.

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Central Bank, Argentine ePeso: is the cryptocurrency coming?

Experts say that a cryptocurrency controlled by a central bank is a double-edged sword, but the BCRA has not yet realized

Several countries found that having a legal tender cryptocurrency has some advantages for users, but it also offers States an excellent control mechanism of the economy. Thus, China, Russia and even the United States are on this path.

In ArgentinaAlthough the Central Bank does not offer details, the truth is that the entity analyzes how to regulate this growing market.

Actually, the virtual peso already exists: it is electronic money that we all have at homebanking or in a virtual wallet. However, it is a credit that we have against the banks or Payment Service Providers (PSP) in which we host that money, “he says to iProUP Daniel Levi, partner of Estudio Beccar Varela.

The expert assures that “digital currencies created by a central bank or CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), on the contrary, they are a direct credit against the entity, so that there would no longer be a risk of loss of deposits“, because it responds directly for those coins.

Roberto Sánchez V., of PwC Argentina, indicates to iProUP : “These are conversations that have been taking place in many countries: develop an alternative that represents an evolution of the monetary system and incorporate the news and strengths of crypto assets. ”

“The main projects are the yuan digital from China, the Eurochain of the European Union, the Fedcoin of the United States “, specifies iProUP Julieta Firpo, Transfer Pricing Manager at Andersen.

However, El Salvador was much more aggressive, since it adopted Bitcoin as one of its three legal tender coins. In this sense, Víctor Castillejo, specialist lawyer, specifies iProUP what “all those who want to use it to cancel their obligations will be able to do so and economic actors will have to accept it. ”

What is a cryptoweight?

A cryptocurrency is a digital representation (that has economic value) that seeks to comply with three functions of money:

  • Medium of exchange (payments)
  • Reserve of value (savings)
  • Unit of account (price formation)

It differs from traditional currency in that it does not have legal tender. Instead, comply with the inescapable requirement to be instrumented in a blockchain or other registration technology distributed. Most states reserve for themselves the power to issue and delegate this power to central banks, such as the BCRA, the only one capable of printing and assigning value to banknotes.

as

According to experts, a cryptoweight would improve financial inclusion

Castillejo confirms iProUP that “lately there has been talk about the possibility that the Central Bank instrument the weight in a chain of blocks (blockchain) since it is the only one with the power to issue. “However, he clarifies:” This, by itself, does not mean that we are dealing with a ‘state cryptocurrency’, but that it will simply be electronic money within a blockchain. ”

Then,why the BCRA would decide to launch a “cryptoweight”? The answer will depend on the technical benefits that the body understands it offers. “For example, it is easily traceable, can help financial integration and transparency. But implementing it would not necessarily facilitate economic stabilization or lower inflation, “Castillejo points out.

Advantages and disadvantages

Juan Diehl Moreno, from the Marval, O’Farrell & Mairal study, lists the following benefits of cryptoweight:

  • Reduction of issuance, deposit, transport and transaction costs
  • Transparency in tax matters
  • Control of money laundering and financing of terrorism
  • Financial inclusion for the unbanked

“Also raises concerns, such as the privacy of transactions and the continuity of private financing, which will depend on the characteristics of this currency, “adds Diehl Moreno.

For his part, Castillejo warns that “this technology can be used to have a greater control over how citizens use their money– Unlike cash, which is completely anonymous, a blockchain allows know the origin, history and final destination of every last weight“.

Therefore, the lawyer warns: “It is very important to prioritize the right to privacy and the protection of personal data when we talk about blockchains and distributed ledger technologies. ”

Francisco Molina Portela, from the Tavarone, Rovelli, Salim & Miani estudio, points out to iProUP that “to be able to evaluate advantages or disadvantages, in the first place, we must know its design, functionality, those responsible and the technology”.

The Central Bank could allow people to open accounts directly with the BCRA, something that today is limited to banks, and from there keep deposits and make payments“, complete.

According to the expert, the benefits of CBDC (digital currencies issued by central banks themselves) are still being studied. However, he remarks that “it is understood that they provide greater security and efficiency to the payment system, both domestic and cross-border, would help reduce costs and improve financial inclusion“.

However, Molina Portela warns that “the creation of a CBDC will have an important impact on the current financial system. A state-owned cryptocurrency could alienate customers from banks and jeopardize their balance sheets. It would also imply that the BCRA must set up an infrastructure of accounts and systems that it does not have today, and assume the operational risk of all this. ”

Specialists fear that a central bank digital currency may have excessive control over users

Specialists fear that a central bank digital currency may have excessive control over users

Levi emphasizes that “the main benefit is to speed up and make the payment system cheaper and reduce systemic risks, since transactions and deposits would be recorded directly against BCR balancesA, instead of the information going through the different current intermediaries “.

“In international terms, this would enable residents of one country to make payments to residents of another without having to go through correspondent banks, which today are concentrated in the main financial centers, “adds Levi.

And remarks that “CBDCs could be programmable via smart contracts, so that conditions could be introduced to payments: for example, that it is automatically triggered against the delivery of a product “.

More freedom or more control?

Levi points out that they still exist “key debates about CBDCs that can radically change the implications of its adoption “and that are related” to the type of register in which transactions will be recorded and the degree of anonymity who will offer his tenure. ”

“While the cryptocurrency operations are recorded in decentralized digital books distributed in multiple nodes around the worldCentral banks tend to prefer that they are in limited nodes that they themselves can control, directly or indirectly, “says Levi.

The expert remarks that this “raises great challenges around cybersecurity and interoperability. The other big discussion has to do with Protection of personal data“.

Currently, our transactional and deposit information is protected by bank secrecy and privacy policies. from our banks and PSP. Cryptocurrencies offer such a high degree of anonymity that it worries the authorities regarding money laundering and other types of crimes, “says Levi.

And adds: “CBDC, by recording in a register that the central bank may control, directly or indirectly, it is unclear to what extent money handling privacy will be maintained“.

“This shows that CBDC are the tool that central banks are evaluating for take back control on the monetary and payments system that, little by little, were losing to cryptocurrencies and bigtech“says Levi.

In this sense, the specialist indicates: “In the last annual report of the Basel Committee it was clear that they see them as the great opportunity to regain lost ground, using the last crypto and digital payments advances to streamline transactions. But, at the same time, retain sovereignty over exchange and monetary policy, and perhaps over information. ”

Should it replace or coexist with the paper ticket?

Diehl Moreno believes that a crypto peso would not exclude physical currencybut can be used as a alternative method of payment and reserve of value. “The digital weight would not be more than a digital representation of fiat currencyTherefore, it would not have any intrinsic element that modifies the little confidence in the weight that Argentines and local and international economic agents have today, “he shoots.

For his part, Firpo affirms that “digital currencies they must live with the paper and its use will be as an investment asset that can also fulfill the role as a means of payment “.

“A CBDC is very different from generating one of the more than 10,000 crypto assets that exist in the world. Thinking of creating one as a simple banknote replacement is simplistic and it would not necessarily attract people to reduce the country’s main means of payment, “Sánchez warned.

In his vision, “the reasons why there are so many cash transactions in Argentina are more associated with tax and cultural issues than technical or educational limitations “.

Castillejo remarks: “Paper money should not cease to exist; otherwise we could expose to a fully controlled and monitored economy by being 100% digitized. This does not mean that digitization should not be deepened, since it is always convenient to make life easier for citizens to enjoy the different services of the financial system. ”

However, the expert maintains, “this cannot be an excuse to limit the virtues that fiduciary money on paper can provide.” For his part, Levi expresses: “The trend indicates that we will most likely go to a hybrid or gradual system first, in which CBDC coexist with cash, electronics and cryptocurrencies“.

In this model, it states “that commercial banks and PSPs will end up playing a less systemic role and more administrative for the client, to deal with aspects that central banks do not have the capacity to attend, such as the onboarding, the initiation of payments and the user interface “.

The big question is how far central banks will manage to compete against the crypto world. and the bigtech without dying in the attempt. It will be a very entertaining movie to watch, “concludes Levi.

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Is it convenient to put silver in common FIXED TERM or GRAPE in July?

Savers who bet on fixed terms should be attentive to new forecasts of lower inflation, which may change their preferences

The lower inflation forecasts begin to balance the returns offered by the UVA fixed terms compared to the traditional ones, and there savers begin to consider which of these two alternatives is the most appropriate to safeguard the purchasing power of their pesos.

Both options have both their advantages and disadvantages, but the only clue that the situation looms is that the gain of the UVA fixed terms, which were the “stars” of the first semester for granting around 4% per month, according to the high inflation at that time, would decrease in the coming months.

In other words, this placement that adjusts based on the Reference Stabilization Coefficient (CER) index, which reflects inflationary evolution, would see its performance affected by economists’ projections that there will be a lower price increase in the short term. term.

Therefore, its yield would be equal to the fixed rate that today offers a traditional fixed term, which is 3.08% monthly (37% annually).

The alarms for UVA savers have already been turned on. According to Claudio Caprarulo, chief economist at Analytica consultants, the inflation recorded last June was 2.9%. And for the period from July to September, he told iProfesional, he expects a monthly average of 2.6%.

If these estimates are specified, after several months, this saving tool, which follows the prices of the economy, it would be just below the rate paid for a traditional fixed term.

Something that would make these investments that are governed by a fixed rate more attractive, especially since they are 30-day placements, so they allow the money to be moved quickly to another type of instrument, in the event of an alteration. in the political and economic “climate” of the country.

On the other hand, the UVA fixed terms require a minimum reserve requirement of the funds of 90 days, a period that in Argentina can be “eternal” in an electoral year.

The justifications for these downward inflation forecasts, according to Caprarulo, are mainly based on the fact that the “Government strongly reduced the depreciation of the peso, to just over 1% during the last two months, and in turn slowed down both the rate increase and many contracts, which during 2020 were frozen. ”

This trend of lower inflation is being perceived in the demand for UVA fixed terms.

In fact, days ago, Javier Dicristo, Banco Meridian Investment Manager, told iProfesional: “I am a little surprised, queries dropped a lot to do this type of placement. ”

With downward forecasts of inflation, the doubt of the savers is in what fixed term it is convenient to put the weights

Fixed term UVA vs. traditional

It should be remembered that in the first half of the year, UVA fixed terms were the instruments that grew the most among savers, due to the fact that they doubled their participation among placements.

Is that at the end of last year they represented barely 2.5% of the volume of all traditional deposits, while today the proportion doubled to 5% of the total.

“The prominence of the fixed term UVA has two key ingredients: the intervention of the Government in the prices of the stock exchange dollars, which slow down their evolution; and the acceleration of inflation, which allowed the yields to be also higher”, summarizes Iván Cachanosky, Chief Economist of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso.

And he adds: “For these reasons, the outlook for the fixed term UVA It was clearer in the first quarter, and it was already a bit more risky from April to June. Nonetheless, it yielded 24% in the first 6 months, thus beating both the traditional variant (18%) as well as the MEP dollars (17%) and counted with liquidation (18%)“.

Beyond that the performance that this instrument will have in the months to come, most of the analysts consulted by iProfesional estimate that it is still “a good option”.

“In particular, he thought that it is still a good option to follow inflation, but the overheating of the US banknote in recent days could tip the balance towards that choice,” Dicristo warns iProfesional.

Beyond this preference for dollarization in times of uncertainty, Juan Pablo Albornoz, an economist at the consulting firm Ecolatina, notes that, in the medium term, for those seeking inflationary coverage, UVA fixed terms are a good option “.

At the same time, it completes that “everything seems to indicate that in the coming months inflation would tend to decline gradually, mainly due to the handbrake on the official dollar. Although the reopening of parities could put pressure in this way, we would not immediately see this effect. , mainly, because the increases are given in installments “.

Now, for the very short term, Albornoz considers that the fixed term UVA, “perhaps, has a lower yield than the one they have been showing and it is more convenient to stop at, for example, the mutual funds (FCI) fixed rate, which would beat inflation in these two or three months. ”

It also adds no less data for this instrument, with respect to the aforementioned fact that “it requires having the silver stopped for at least 90 days, and at most it pays CER plus 0.25%.

In addition, in the previous election, for the saver, the path that the exchange rate takes can weigh heavily.

“Not everything is rosy, we must not forget that the parallel dollar yield they find each other strongly repressed by the interventions of the Central Bank and the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) “, Cachanosky warns iProfesional.

Regarding inflation, as mentioned above, the average of the latest projections of the Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the BCRA, forecasts a rise in prices that “would be close to 3% per month for the next few months.”

In this way, the attractiveness observed during the first semester with the UVA fixed terms, according to Cachanosky, could “gradually lose relevance”, since inflation would return to levels close to 3%, matching the traditional fixed term.

According to the last REM published on July 8, for the month of June 2021 the median of the economists’ estimates was at 3,2%, and “for following months the total number of participants projects a slightly downward trajectory in monthly average inflation “.

In fact, 2.9% is expected for July and a lower median for the following months, which reaches a floor that reaches 2.7% per month in September and October.

With an interest rate of 3% per month, traditional fixed terms could begin to exceed what UVAs offer, which follow inflation, which could be 2.7% per month.

With an interest rate of 3% per month, traditional fixed terms could begin to exceed those offered by UVAs, which follow inflation.

More attractive traditional fixed term?

A not minor fact is that, since september last year, deposits to traditional fixed term they have consistently lost to inflation.

On July 2020 had their last positive performance, when, at that time, the monthly compensation exceeded inflation by half a percentage point, providing a rate of 2.4% while the price increase was 1.9% that month.

“After last august entered a Shadow icon´, a period in which its performance practically equaled the monthly increase in the National CPI “, and little by little it was falling below inflation, the analyst Andrés Méndez of AMF Economía summarizes to iProfesional.

Thus, since the middle of last year, the Central Bank’s strategy was to “freeze” the minimum yield on retail time deposits at 3% per month.

Therefore, everything indicates that, to the extent that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not below that percentage, the performance of these loans will be negative.

In this sense, Natalia Motyl, economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, explains: “Inflation is one of the major influences that govern the level of interest rates. If the rate at which saving is remunerated is lower than the rise of expected prices, we will be losing in real terms. Therefore, the minimum rate must always be equal to or greater than expected inflation “.

In other words, in the face of a Central Bank that “´looks the other way”, the future development of internal prices may rekindle (or not) the validity of savings in pesos of small savers in traditional placements. if the expected turning point could have occurred in June “, emphasizes Méndez.

To complete that “it is probable” that it is due wait until the end of July or next August so that, “from a greater slowdown in the rate of growth of domestic prices, signs of real returns positive for small savers in pesos at a fixed rate “, summarizes this analyst to iProfesional.

That is to say, wait for the monthly inflation sea less than 3.08%, which is the rate granted by a traditional placement.

In this sense, Cachanosky states: “The savers could be interested in go back to traditional placements, since they are for 30 days, and not 90 days as in the case of UVA. This last point is important because it gives savers more room for maneuver in case they want to switch to another instrument, such as going to the MEP dollar or cash with settlement “.

This last point is also one of the aspects that can influence placements in pesos, because if instability increases, it is expected that savers can take refuge in the US currency.

“In recent weeks, the foreign exchange market has shown the mood to wake up a bit. This is normal in the context of elections. The problem is that reserves are scarce and the lack of an economic plan combined with inflationary uncertainty makes the hard currency weaken. make it attractive, “adds Cachanosky.

And he concludes: “With these contexts, it would not be surprising that savers who switched to the fixed term UVA return to the traditional, at least for a month, to feel the evolution of inflation and the exchange rate, instead of being tied back for 90 days to these placements “.

Know the value of the dollar in Dollar Today and followed the price and behavior minute by minute. CLICK HERE

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MERCADO LIBRE launched three own brands

The company created by Marcos Galperín also began to compete in the manufacture of electronics, home, tools and fitness products.

The unicorn has no limit. First it was the e-commerce platform, then everything related to digital finance, including loans. In the middle appeared the need to take a greater role in logistics, and now, in the middle of the crisis of traditional retailers (with Garbarino, Ribeiro and Musimundo and the withdrawal of Fallabella from the country), Mercado Libre began, on the one hand, to buy from large brands to sell directly and also manufactures for three own brands: Tedge, dedicated to technology; Begonia, with decorative items; Klatter, in this case with bicycles and tools; and Basics.

From the company they officially indicated that they are always “in constant innovation, with the development of new services, functionalities and products” and that in line with that idea, very recently they began to develop a project that allows them to complement “the current offer with high quality products and competitive prices”.

From the company they clarified that their products compete with the same conditions as those of any seller

On the one hand, Mercado Libre buys products from well-known brands from both local and foreign brands and, in this sense, they have agreements with the main cell phone, TV, audio, computer and gaming brands.

And, on the other hand, like other large retail chains and marketplaces, they buy products directly from suppliers to sell on their platform as Mercado Libre’s own brands.

What is it about

“We are venturing into items such as electronics, home products, tools and fitness under the Tedge, Begonia, Klatter and Basics brands,” they pointed out from the company founded by Marcos Galperín.

Regarding the reasons for this new advance, they point out that in Argentina, a large part of the marketed products promote national production: during 2021, 64% of sales were made locally.

On the platform, “the products compete with the same rules and conditions as any other seller,” they said from the company.

In turn, they point out, “this is a small project that is designed as a complement to the offer of our marketplace and represents only 0.2% of the total value of the products sold”, so they are not sought -at least for now- overshadowing the big brands that operate in the local market.

And they emphasize that, within their platform, “the products compete with the same rules and conditions as any other seller.”

“We are convinced that the better the offer, the more buyers the platform attracts, generating benefits for the entire ecosystem of sellers,” they state.

“This is a small project that is designed as a complement to the offer of our marketplace”

This is an extra way of, they say, “accompanying companies, SMEs and entrepreneurs as protagonists of economic development and financial inclusion in the region.”

Technological products

Brand devices Tedge that appear on the platform are:

-Inverter air conditioning cold / heat from 3,000 frigories to $ 79,999

-Portable 6W bluetooth speaker at $ 2,599

-Wireless headphones at $ 2,299

-Powerbank portable charger / battery with two USB and 10,000 mAh charge at $ 1,639

-32-inch LED Smart TV at $ 29,999

-Netbook with Intel i5 processor with 4 gigs of RAM and 256 gigs of memory at $ 85,999.

They also offer toasters, smart watches, gaming keyboard and mouse combos, monitors, hair straighteners, and alarm clocks.

The fight for the commission of the cards

The central bank (BCRA) and Payment Market -the Mercado Libre virtual wallet and payments service- became involved this Tuesday in a controversy over increases in commissions for the use of credit cards. In the middle, some 1.5 million users of Marcos Gaperin’s platform, including small merchants and self-employed, will have higher costs in their daily operations.

The spark of the controversy was ignited by Mercado Pago, which through a statement sent to its users warned about the rise in costs and directly blamed measures launched by the BCRA. Specifically, Communication A7305, which modified the terms in which businesses receive their payments from credit cards.

According to the text, BCRA regulations “extended the release time for credit card charges that you make through Mercado Pago and other similar platforms.”

Therefore, those who accept payments within the marketplace or through the means of collection QR and Point del Unicorn will see the collection periods “stretched”.

“This will make it the prices of Mercado Libre products increase because, due to inflation, sellers will have to pass on the financial cost of this delay, “said a source from the local fintech world.

In addition, he remarked that “it will also impact the amount of fees. It is already common practice for sellers to put two publications, one with the price in cash and the other with financing. The products that accept fees will be less.”

The text that Mercado Pago sent to its users.

The text that Mercado Pago sent to its users.

In response, the BCRA released on Tuesday a clarification regarding the shortening of the terms in the settlement of card payments. The measure was launched, in principle, to benefit merchants, and – according to the BCRA – the commission increases proposed by Mercado Pago are unjustified.

Specifically, in a statement released this Tuesday, BCRA focused on companies that function as payment groupers – Mercado Pago is the main one – whose intermediation became more expensive in recent weeks. And he clarified that this increase has no relation whatsoever to the measure that ordered the shortening of the settlement deadlines, so it is the sole responsibility of the groupers.

Shorter terms for payments

The Central Bank clarified that it reduced for the benefit of MSMEs the term for the settlement of payments made by banks to businesses for sales under the Credit Card Law. The measure has a universe of beneficiaries of 1.5 million micro and small businesses and will come into effect on 1st of July.

Communication A7305 established that micro and small businesses, as defined by the Secretariat of Small and Medium Enterprises and Entrepreneurs, will receive the collection of sales made with a credit card within 8 business days of completion, instead of the current 10 business days.

In the case of medium-sized companies, the term will be maintained at 10 business days and for large companies the term will be 18 business days, which is the average time that elapses between the expenditure in the shops and the payment by the cardholders of the card summary.

The commission for credit card sales was set by law at 1.8% and for debit card sales at 0.8%. That is the limit that payment terminal service providers can retain for merchants.

The Central Bank says that some commission increases are unrelated to its measures.

The Central Bank says that some commission increases are unrelated to its measures.

Payment groupers: the BCRA explanation

During the previous management at the head of the BCRA a figure not contemplated in the law was established, that of “payment groupers“that mediate between merchants and issuers of credit and debit cards. These groupers charge merchants percentages that triple the commission established by law, while they recognize 1.8% from card issuers and acquirers, responsible for connecting businesses and processing payments.

The Central Bank indicates that compared to a commission of 1.8% that was agreed within the framework of the law, the main payment grouper -the body does not mention it, but it is Payment Market– received a commission of 3.39% from businesses, which now decided to increase, attributing this increase to the standard issued.

Cards: the BCRA shortened the deadlines for businesses to receive payments.

Cards: the BCRA shortened the deadlines for businesses to receive payments.

“The commission of 1.8% is distributed 1.3% for the card issuers and 0.5% for the acquirers. It means that for the same processing that the acquirers receive 0.5%, the payment groupers charge more than 1.5%, “said the BCRA.

Communication A7305 does not justify the commission increase and, if they consider that the financial cost of the operation has increased, they have room to absorb it without transferring it to the stores.

The measure taken by the BCRA also established that for health, gastronomic and hotel companies the reduction to eight days will apply if they are micro or small businesses and it is maintained in ten business days for the rest.

This scheme of settlement terms facilitates the fluidity of the payment system and is complemented by the limit of the interest rate that banks can apply to users who choose to finance the payment of their consumption.

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