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Based on the failure of last year’s counteroffensive, the Biden administration is charting a new strategy that does not emphasize retaking territory but instead focuses on helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances.
The long-term goal is to strengthen the Ukrainian army and the country’s economy.
The paper said the new plan represents a major change from last year, when the U.S. and its allies rushed to train Ukrainian soldiers and equip them with high-quality weapons that could help push the Russians out of occupied eastern and to drive out southern Ukraine.
This attempt failed due to Russian defenses, minefields and trenches.
“It is quite clear that it will be difficult for them to apply as much pressure on all fronts as they did last year,” an unnamed US official told the newspaper.
He believes a more sustainable path is needed. The main idea now is to strengthen Ukraine so that it remains at the forefront and “is much stronger at the end of 2024.”
According to the newspaper, after the failure of last year’s offensive, among the thirty countries that have pledged help to Ukraine in ensuring long-term security, there is a belief that a similar offensive this year would lead to the same result.
According to Ukraine, Russian saboteurs killed two civilians in the Sumy region
Don’t just sit in the trenches
But that doesn’t mean that Ukrainians will simply be buried. According to the newspaper, the West hopes that Ukrainians will not lose more than the current fifth of the territory controlled by Russia. Artillery battles are intended to replace operations in which Ukraine is more successful.
That is, in attacks from longer distances and on the Russian Black Sea Fleet so that Ukraine can export grain and goods by sea. It will also be important to tie down the Russian armed forces in Crimea through sabotage and missile and drone attacks.
For this reason, it is necessary to create protective bubbles around Kiev, Odessa and other strategic cities.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky made a similar statement – the plans for this year include not only defense. “We want the initiative to remain on our side and not on the enemy’s,” he said.
But in meetings with American officials, he expresses concern about what level of ambition he should have when the amount of American aid is unclear.
No strategy can be planned without knowledge of resources
“They ask us about our plan, but we need to know what resources we will have,” Ukrainian lawmaker Roman Kostenko said.
“At the moment everything indicates that we will have less of it than last year, when we tried a counter-offensive and it didn’t work.” If we have even less, it is clear what the plan will be. It will be a defense.”
“No one ignores offensive measures,” added another lawmaker, Serhiy Rachmanin. “But in general, it is very difficult to imagine a global strategic offensive in 2024. “Especially when we look at the general state of foreign aid, not just from the United States.”
The long-term aid commitment is intended to ensure aid for Ukraine even if Donald Trump wins the presidential election. Trump has said he would resolve the conflict within a day if he wins. Zelensky described his comments as dangerous and invited Trump to come to him and present his plans.
The enemy must be surprised
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen criticizes the planned strategy: “You can’t win a war by going step by step.” You have to surprise and overwhelm the enemy. “It is therefore necessary to provide all the necessary weapons.”
Former CIA analyst Eric Ciaramella said the most urgent need now is artillery shells and vehicles to make up for the losses, especially lots of drones.
He mentioned that although the Ukrainians are waiting for fighter jets and other armored vehicles, he pointed out that these are expensive systems that do not save themselves: “I think the Ukrainians have realized that there is no silver bullet, when they saw what a million dollars cost. ‘The tank was destroyed for ten thousand in a minute.’
Russia’s winter offensive fails for the same reasons as the Ukrainians’ summer offensive
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