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Less than a hundred days after the start of the war between Israel and the Palestinian movement Hamas, Israel is changing the pace of intervention in Gaza to what it claims is a less intense pace. However, there is growing global concern about further developments on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, where military activity and mutual shelling are increasing.
Which you’ll also hear in today’s episode at 5:59
- What is the current situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border?
- How real is the risk that other regional actors such as Iran could join the conflict?
- And who and how can calm the growing tension.
In recent days, concerns have been growing about a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. This time the situation is particularly acute on Israel’s northern border, where the country borders Lebanon. Locals have been forced to leave villages on both sides of the border as airstrikes from both sides have become increasingly frequent in recent days.
In addition, the situation was aggravated by the statement by the Lebanese armed movement Hezbollah, which said on Monday evening that one of its commanders was killed in an attack, probably by Israeli forces. Israel has not officially claimed it. Despite claiming it does not want to start a war, Hezbollah used drones carrying explosives to attack an Israeli military base in the north of the country on Thursday.
“There is a risk that the conflict will spread beyond Gaza (…) I think the actors are completely rational and don’t want that to happen.” But that doesn’t mean it won’t get out of control, because there is many of them and not all of them have nerves of steel. “The probability that a regional-scale conflict will occur is higher than it was a month ago,” says Josef Kraus, political scientist and security analyst from the Institute of Political Science at Masaryk University, in the 5:59 podcast.
“Hezbollah does not mean Lebanon”
The situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border is also delicate because, according to the analyst, Hezbollah is “the strongest non-state armed actor in the region,” which has already successfully opposed the Israeli army in the past – specifically in 2006 .
However, the armed movement does not represent the entire country and, according to Kraus, it is impossible to equate the terms Lebanon and Hezbollah. This is despite the fact that the organization has its members in the Lebanese government. According to the analyst, it only represents less than a third of society there that describes itself as Shiite, but in addition to Shiites, Sunnis and Arab Christians are also represented in the political structures. “None of them are actually fans of Hezbollah, and at the national level Hezbollah represents a direct competitor and a kind of thorn in the side,” describes the political scientist. Creating similar abbreviations such as Hezbollah = Lebanon is considered “very dangerous”.
Photo: Josef Krause archive
Security analyst Josef Kraus.
Yet fears are spreading across the Islamic world that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may see the eventual expansion of fighting into Lebanon as a sure key to his political survival, as he faces criticism at home for failing to to prevent an attack by Hamas terrorists in October.
“I imagine that the purpose of the current Israeli government, and in particular Benjamin Netanyahu’s position, is to delay the counting of political points and violations as much as possible, and armed conflict is the perfect tool for this,” he says Kraus.
However, it is not yet clear how the Israeli government will actually behave. The position of the USA as Israel’s long-standing partner on the international stage can also play a role. For example, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during his last visit to the region that the US was committed to resolving tensions on the Lebanese-Israeli border diplomatically.
In the 5:59 podcast you will also find out how likely it is that Iran will intervene in the conflict in the Middle East or which actor could calm the situation. Listen to the player at the beginning of the article.
Editor and co-editor: Pavel Vondra, Dominika Kubištová
Sound design: David Kaiser
Sources of audio samples: CBS News, ČT24, CRo Radiožurnál
Podcast 5:59
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