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After the Russian invasion, the security situation in Europe is the worst since 1945. If Vladimir Putin succeeds in Ukraine, Latvia and Estonia will undoubtedly be his next targets, claims Niklas Granholm, a Swedish military analyst and expert on the Russian army, in an interview for Aktuálně.cz.
Granholm previously worked in the Swedish Army and was responsible for the strategy of the Swedish Naval Forces. In his opinion, Ukraine cannot imagine the liberation of the occupied territories without massive Western military assistance, including the supply of American F-16 fighter jets.
“But the Russians also have problems, their human losses on the battlefield are enormous,” recalls an expert who now works at the Swedish Army Research Agency (FOI). And it also explains recent words from Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister that his country should start preparing for war with Russia.
Niklas Granholm now works at the Swedish Army Research Agency (FOI). | Photo: Niklas Granholms Twitter
Many analysts and historians compare the current tense situation with the 1930s. That is, by the time that eventually led to World War II. Do you think such comparisons are appropriate?
I find it a bit simple. I would describe the 1930s as a worse time. Germany wanted to be a great power; it wanted to take revenge for the consequences of the First World War. Now the situation is different in that Europe, with the exception of Hungary, is more or less united towards Russia. So it’s better this way.
The problem is that the United States has become highly politically polarized, making it difficult to engage in the world, including helping Ukraine. When we talk about the comparison between the 1930s and the present, I see a significant difference, which is China’s global influence today. We are experiencing a seismic shift in the world system, similar to 1945 or 1989.
Would you describe this as a bad development for Western democracies?
Yes. It is important that democratic states work together, stick together and defend their values.
How do you assess the Russian army in Ukraine? Did anything surprise you?
I have studied Russia and the Russian army for a long time. I knew she was in chaos and corruption, but I was still surprised that she was in such bad shape at the start of the invasion. The assumption that Ukraine’s defenses will collapse if the Russians show up in large numbers and violently has proven fundamentally wrong. I was also surprised by the ineffectiveness of the Russian Air Force – the Russians failed to establish and exploit air superiority.
Do you expect Ukraine to be able to retake some of the occupied territories?
Retaking Crimea and Donbass, as Kiev officially declares, will undoubtedly be very difficult. For Ukrainians to think about this, they must have strong support from abroad and arms supplies must continue. What is crucial and absolutely decisive is the position of the United States. If US deliveries are not stopped, Ukraine has a chance. In my opinion, Kiev will receive F-16 fighter jets in the spring and summer, and if they can be integrated into the overall Ukrainian war strategy, it can make a difference. But the Russians also have problems; their human losses on the battlefield are enormous.
Swedish Civil Protection Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin recently caused a stir when he declared that Sweden must prepare for war. How should his words be understood?
Bohlin is Minister for Civil Defense, and there is also a Ministry of Defense in Sweden. This is important to mention. Bohlin said shelters, bunkers, supplies of food and essential supplies needed to be prepared. During the war, Sweden had a sophisticated civil defense system in which everyone had the opportunity to seek refuge in times of crisis. But in the optimistic 1990s we dismantled a large part of this system. Essentially there was no longer any preparation for war. Now, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the need has increased because it is clear that civilians are also getting caught up in the war.
Bohlin said we need to activate these defenses and be mentally prepared for the possibility of war. However, some Swedish politicians or the Chief of General Staff of the Swedish Army have made similar statements before, except that their statements did not find such a response abroad. The consensus in Sweden is that the security situation is the worst since 1945.
Last year, Sweden decided to join NATO and end its long-standing policy of neutrality. How aware are the Swedes of the threat posed by Russia?
I don’t know if the world has always understood the concept of Swedish neutrality well because it is related to Sweden’s particular history. In the early modern period, Sweden was a naval power with ambitions to dominate the Baltic Sea. Then in 1809, in the war with Russia, it lost Finland, which had been part of the country for over six centuries. That was a big shock because no one could imagine Sweden without Finland. The Kingdom of Sweden wanted to regain the lost territory, but found that it did not have the means to continue the war with Russia alone. So the policy has changed. We recognized Russian influence in the Baltic, but concluded a treaty of alliance with Great Britain.
It was similar during the Cold War in the second half of the last century. Sweden was officially neutral, but had an allied defense agreement with the United States and Great Britain. It was a kind of Swedish insurance in the event of total war. In addition, Swedish industry was heavily focused on defense and weapons production.
It may seem that we have suddenly abandoned strict neutrality and joined NATO, but this is not such a sudden change. Finally, Sweden has been cooperating with the alliance on technical standards for weapons and other matters since the mid-1990s.
Furthermore, there was a consensus in the Swedish army, security services and state leadership that we would only cooperate with NATO if Russian President Vladimir Putin did not do something stupid. Then it will be necessary to become a member country of the alliance. And this is exactly the kind of stupidity Putin committed when he invaded Ukraine.
You mentioned the Baltic Sea. Do you think that the Baltic republics – especially Latvia or Estonia – are under immediate threat from a Russian victory in Ukraine?
The answer is clearly yes. Russia has never really come to terms with the independence of Latvia and Estonia. It has officially recognized these republics, but considers their separation from the Russian sphere of influence something unnatural. This is exactly what we should be worried about. If Putin succeeds in changing the government in Ukraine and bringing Kiev under Russian rule, the Baltic republics would be the next target. The imperial thinking and worldview of the current Russian regime are so strong that the Kremlin simply goes along with it.
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