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January 17, 2024
Gao Tianyou news comments
The Hang Seng Index was initially normal at the beginning of yesterday’s market, but suddenly collapsed after 10:20 a.m., falling 2.16% during the day and falling below 16,000 points. What happened at ten in the morning? One of the most discussed topics in Central was Prime Minister Li Ka-chiu’s emphasis in the media before attending the Executive Council that legislation on Article 23 of the Basic Law should be “flexible” and “cope with ever-changing changes.” , even new methods that may not be imaginable at present. Such arguments raise fears among some investors that Hong Kong will continue to be “run by people” and have a negative impact on attracting foreign investment. The Hang Seng Index will next test the 15,000-point mark and investors do not seem to see the benefits of “regulation and prosperity” for now.
It is said that the Hang Seng Index opened at 16,030 points at 9:30 a.m. yesterday morning, and then gradually rose, reaching nearly 16,200 points at around 10:15 a.m. But at 10:20 a.m., the stock market suddenly turned around and fell off a cliff. The Hang Seng Index closed at 15,865 points, down 2.16%. It was the second time it fell below 16,000 points, 14 months after the low point of the epidemic. For comparison, the A-share Shanghai index and the Shenzhen index rose 0.27% and 0.31%, respectively, yesterday.
Legislation must contain clear provisions to avoid “domination by men”.
Why have Hong Kong stocks crashed so much? What’s up? Although the financial market is changing rapidly, many factors can trigger the butterfly effect. However, what caused the most discussion among the people in the central government yesterday was the Chief Executive’s discussion of 23 legislative issues before attending the Executive Council.
According to a report from the Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK) news website at 10:31 a.m., Li Jiachao reiterated that the sooner the legislative work on Article 23 is completed, the better. He also said the legislation “needs to move forward.” I am flexible and flexible to deal with ever-changing changes that may not even be certain at this time. “I can imagine new methods.” Of course, investors watching the live television broadcast can see the details of Li Jiachao’s speech a few minutes earlier than the text messages.
The government news channel later published a more complete version of the full text of the speech. Li Jiachao emphasized: “Everyone has experienced different risks and injuries when national security is threatened… The international situation is constantly changing and sometimes hostile.” The forces still have their eyes on it.” are in force and are internationally accepted, therefore we should review them.” He stressed that the relevant legislation “should be sufficiently forward-looking and able to withstand some techniques that may not be currently appreciated and be able to deal flexibly with different risks.”
In fact, senior officials in the special administrative region have been saying since last year that 23 pieces of legislation will be finalized this year. All sectors of society and the investment market are mentally prepared for this and have priced in associated factors so that it should not cause a major shock. However, Li Jiachao mentioned yesterday that Article 23 legislation “should be flexible,” which was the first time a new statement appeared, and it immediately attracted great attention.
Some people in the legal profession believe that the so-called “legislation must be flexible” is “quite new”. The most important thing about the law is to follow it “in black and white” so that all levels of society clearly know the limits of illegality, which is also the rule of law. One of the basics. If, as Li Jiachao said yesterday, Article 23 should be flexible to deal with “new methods that may not be conceivable at present,” people will inevitably worry whether this means that the relevant laws in the EU have a lot of leeway for interpretations have a future and leaves law enforcement to make their own decisions. From a constitutional perspective, the other side of “flexibility” can be “any movement at the portal”.
In particular, one of the important purposes of Article 23 is to prevent “espionage” and “foreign forces”, and economic security is also an important part of national security, which will inevitably lead to foreign businessmen investing and doing business in Hong Kong . If Article 23 is very “flexible”, foreign investors fear that it will be difficult to control the safe boundaries of doing business in Hong Kong, such as: Such as conducting market surveys, short selling stocks, publishing bearish reports, etc. Without specific black and white provisions to protect them, they can be accused of violating the law at any time. Under such circumstances, capital outflows could accelerate and the stock market becomes even drier.
The market is still pessimistic at the bottom and fears it will “step on its own two feet.”
Ultimately, Hong Kong’s social and economic confidence in the “Governance to Prosperity” stage is still extremely sensitive, like a frightened bird. Some people in the immigration consulting industry reported that the number of “yellow silks” interested in immigrating has already declined. Originally they thought the “wave of immigration” was over, but unexpectedly more and more “blue silks” arrived. “have recently been advising on immigration issues. One of the triggering points was the “Annual School Inspection Report” released by the Education Bureau last month, which listed a number of offenses in primary and secondary schools in the implementation of national security education, including “teachers who focus too much on the Concentrate on imparting knowledge” and “Students sing the national anthem in a weak voice.”
Of course, these “blue silk” parents are not unpatriotic, but they also hope that their children receive a good education and succeed in school. But now in Hong Kong, when “teachers impart knowledge” and “students sing softly,” they are also sins. , no wonder parents are gradually losing confidence in Hong Kong’s educational prospects and considering immigration.
Of course, the original intention of the Education Bureau to implement national security education is definitely good. Just as Li Jiachao emphasized that Article 23 of the legislation “must be flexible,” I think this is justified. For example, what the CEO might mean is that technology is changing rapidly, so the law needs to keep up with the times, and it is understandable that the original intent of the legislation should be to cover potential risks as much as possible; In other words, however, this does not necessarily mean that the “rule of law” is replaced by the “rule of man”.
However, as mentioned above, Hong Kong’s economy is still waiting to develop, lagging behind, and its position is not stable. It’s easy to “overthink” all sorts of problems. If the authorities really want to revive the economy and attract foreign investment, they must do a good job of educating the outside world, try to protect market confidence and at least avoid “treading on themselves.” On the contrary, when the Hang Seng index falls below 16,000 points and continues to fall, it reflects that the market is “voting with money”; no matter how optimistic investors and business people are by then, they may not be able to see the “benefits that come with governance and prosperity.”
(Editor’s Note: Gao Tianyou’s book “The Middle Class Must Die” is on sale now)
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