Experts believe Bitcoin will reach a record high of over $69,000 in 2024 and is also holding prices of over $100,000. Financial expert Sandner says: “The price is likely to develop positively if investing in Bitcoin becomes less complicated and the first large institutional investors begin to show an interest in Bitcoin.” So-called HODL investors who hold their crypto holdings, no matter how The prices are high or low, even speculating that the threshold of one million dollars will be exceeded. On the other hand, there are warning voices, such as the German consumer advice center. Bitcoins are not recommended as an investment due to the risks – from strong price fluctuations to total loss -, consumer advocates said in November.
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What the German economy hopes to achieve from this
– 2024-04-14 18:17:16
The Chancellor is traveling to China and bringing with him several business leaders with a number of wishes. One industry in particular is worried about German-Chinese relations.
Under observation: When Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to China this weekend and meets President Xi Jinping, among others, he will be accompanied by a number of German business bosses and a whole team of ministers.
Ministers Cem Özdemir (Agriculture, Greens), Volker Wissing (Transport, FDP) and Steffi Lemke (Environment, Greens) will be there in Beijing. In addition to pressing geopolitical and foreign policy questions about the war in Ukraine and the tensions between China and Taiwan, discussions about economic policy are also likely to be on the agenda.
For Jürgen Matthes, economist at the employer-oriented Institute of German Economics (IW) in Cologne, there are several strains on German-Chinese economic relations. “China is threatening to flood our market with more and more products. We can buy goods that we don’t produce ourselves so cheaply. But where we have competitive production ourselves, jobs are at stake due to the often unfair competitive pressure from China,” says he t-online.
Chinese economy is weakening
China’s economic recovery after the end of the strict Corona requirements has so far been weak overall. Domestic consumption in China also remains hesitant. This was particularly evident in March, although this was exacerbated by two public holidays. Exports fell by 7.5 percent compared to the same month last year, as customs in Beijing announced on Friday. Imports also fell by 1.9 percent. Experts had forecast a significantly weaker decline in exports and slight growth in imports.
The weakened Chinese economy is also leading to politicians becoming more open to foreign companies again. “There are tendencies that the Chinese government could improve the business conditions for German companies somewhat,” said Matthes. “However, the extent to which Chinese words are followed by action remains to be seen.” Scholz’s visit could therefore take place at a good time. However, companies should not get their hopes up too much. “China will stick to its goal of becoming more independent,” estimates Matthes.
When weighing up the situation, expert Matthes considers the strain on Sino-German economic relations to be particularly significant. “I consider the overcapacity problem to be even more relevant to the economy as a whole than the question of market access,” explains Matthes. Because products from overproduction can then cause unrest on the world market at prices below market prices.
The automotive industry in particular is shaking
This is becoming more noticeable in one industry and relations with China are becoming more important. “China is particularly important for the German auto industry,” says Matthes. “After all, more than a quarter of the foreign investments in this industry go to China. In the overall economy it is only seven percent.”
There are several reasons why automobile companies are investing so heavily in the Chinese market. On the one hand, many people expect a growing customer group in the emerging country of China, and the current customer group is also large in such a populous country.
In addition, Chinese car manufacturers are on the rise. Only the manufacturer BYD, which is still relatively unknown in this country, has already overtaken Volkswagen in terms of sales in China. BYD reacted quickly to the end of e-car funding in Germany with an aggressive pricing policy and is otherwise engaged in a showdown with US competitor Tesla. You can read more about BYD and the Chinese car strategy here.
This is also made possible by high government subsidies in China, which last year were estimated at up to 100 billion US dollars. The EU Commission is therefore currently conducting an investigation into the extent to which prices on the European market are being kept artificially low – much to the annoyance of the Chinese authorities. The results of the investigation are still pending, but punitive tariffs could be imposed as a result.
What the German economy hopes to achieve from this – 2024-04-14 18:17:16
High Oil Prices and Exchange Rates Put Pressure on Prices: Bank of Korea Monitoring Exchange Rate
Pressure to increase prices due to high oil prices and exchange rates
Bank of Korea: “Exchange rate threat is lower than before”
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy inspects crude oil supply and export logistics
Foreign exchange authorities suggest intervention when exchange rates soar
Won painting that doesn’t work hard The won-dollar exchange rate is displayed at a currency exchange office in Myeong-dong, Seoul on the 14th. The exchange rate on the 12th was 1375.4 won, the highest level in 17 months since November 10, 2022 (1377.5 won) based on the closing price. Reporter Kim Chang-gil
Due to the escalating war crisis from the Middle East and uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy, the won-dollar exchange rate has surpassed 1,375 won in 17 months and is on the verge of crossing the 1,400 won level. This is the first time that the won-dollar exchange rate has exceeded the 1,375 won level since the foreign exchange crisis in 1997, the global financial crisis in 2008, and the US Federal Reserve’s high-intensity austerity period in 2022.
In the Seoul foreign exchange market, the won-to-US dollar exchange rate, which was 1,293 won at the beginning of the year, rose by 82.4 won (6.4%) as of the 12th. Based on the closing price, it has been 17 months since November 10, 2022 (1377.5 won) that the exchange rate exceeded 1,375 won.
Looking at the fundamentals, the exchange rate is likely to stabilize. Due to the recovery in semiconductor exports, the current account has been in surplus for 10 consecutive months, and foreign funds flowing into the domestic stock market from November last year to March this year amounted to $17.1 billion (approximately 2.351 trillion won). However, as the U.S. price index continues to soar, the timing of interest rate cuts has become unclear, and the growing conflict in the Middle East is encouraging the strong dollar. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong said after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on the 12th, “We are not in a situation where an economic crisis is caused by exchange rate changes like in the past, and overseas investment and assets have increased significantly, and a developed country-style foreign exchange market structure has been established.” Even if the exchange rate rises, it is not a situation to be concerned about as in the past.
However, if the high exchange rate continues, import prices may rise, which may have a negative impact on overall prices. In particular, as crude oil is paid for in dollars, there is a high possibility that living prices such as transportation and utility bills will rise due to the high international oil price, which is approaching $90 per barrel.
As fears of an escalation of war grow, with Israel declaring retaliation when Iran attacks the mainland, some predict that in the worst case, the exchange rate could exceed 1,400 won per dollar. Oh Jae-young, a researcher at KB Securities, said, “There is no particular resistance zone after 1,360 to 1,370 won per dollar, which was the strongest resistance zone, so we need to keep in mind an increase to the 1,400 won range.”
President Yoon Seok-yeol held an emergency economic and security meeting on the 14th and ordered the intensive operation of analysis and management systems related to international oil prices, energy supply and demand, and supply chains. Deputy Prime Minister for Economy and Finance Choi Sang-mok said, “We will play the necessary role if volatility in the financial and foreign exchange markets increases excessively due to external shocks.” This is interpreted as an indication of government intervention in the event of a sharp rise in the exchange rate.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy held an emergency inspection meeting on this day and intensively inspected the supply and demand of crude oil and the logistics situation of exporting companies. As political instability in the Middle East increases, it is expected that oil prices will rise for the time being. Iran has the third largest crude oil production in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and Middle Eastern crude oil imported into the country passes through the Strait of Hormuz in front of Iran.
2024-04-14 12:20:00
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High Oil Prices and Exchange Rates Put Pressure on Prices: Bank of Korea Monitoring Exchange Rate