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LIGHT IN THE TUNNEL: In the future, electricity prices appear to be stabilizing at a lower level. Photo: Stella Bugge
In 2024 and 2025, your electric bill will likely be far cheaper than the monster bills of previous years.
The future electricity price for 2025 is at its lowest level in almost two years. It was Europower that first reported this.
Lower gas prices
– The price of gas has fallen by 48 percent since mid-October. This is the main reason why the future price of electricity has fallen so sharply. For once, the price of gas is more important than the weather, explains Olav Botnen, electricity analyst at Volt Power Analytics.
Not only has the price of gas fallen, but also the price of CO₂ quotas, which in turn affects the price of electricity.
– This is because the industry is not doing so well, mainly because it is not taking advantage of the quotas put on the market. Consumption has also fallen in many other sectors due to the high price of electricity, which is affecting many consumers, Botnen tells VG.
He points out that most other European countries have, if at all, worse electricity supplies than Norway.
– But it is perhaps the industry in Europe that is feeling the brunt of this. Since the beginning of 2022, when gas prices skyrocketed, chemical industry capacity has fallen by around 25 percent.
– System price 45 öre kWh
According to Europower, the market believes in one on January 24th systemprissystemprisThe system price is a theoretical price calculated assuming that there are no transmission restrictions (bottlenecks) in the Nordic transmission network. The system price applies to the entire Nordic market and serves as a reference price for the pricing of financial flow trading in the Nordic countries. Source: Energy Facts This corresponds to 45 öre per kWh next year.
In the most expensive phase, they write, the price of the contract was 117 öre/kWh until 2025. That was in August 2022.
– We managed to replace gas from Russia and gained access to more LNG in Germany. “It has contributed to the normalization of the gas market, although we continue to expect volatility in the future,” Thema partner Marius Holm Rennesund tells Europower.
Botnen states that the price of electricity supplied in Oslo in 2025 has fallen from 70 to 58 öre since October 30th.
Two days ago, the expected price in Southeast Norway (NO1) in the second quarter of this year, according to Europower, was 54 öre per kWh and 59 öre for the whole of 2025. In comparison, the average price for the whole of last year, the average price was 76, 1 öre and in 2022 at 194 öre. In 2021, the average price here was 76 öre.
These prices exclude VAT, taxes and online rental.
Prices for other regions can be found in the box below:
The information
The market’s expected prices as well as historical prices
The expected price in Southwest Norway in the second quarter of 2024 and the whole of 2025 is 63 öre and 71 öre per kWh. In 2023 and 2022, the average price was 90.4 and 213 öre per kWh. In 2021 it was 76.2.
Expected price in Central Norway (NO3) in the second quarter of 2024 and the whole of 2025 22 and 31 öre per kWh, respectively. In 2023 and 2022 this was 43.9 and 42.8 öre per kWh. In 2021 it was the 42nd.
The expected price in Western Norway in the second quarter of 2024 and the whole of 2025 is 53 and 56 öre per kWh. In 2023 and 2022, the average price was 76.2 and 193 öre per kWh. In 2021 there were 76.
The expected price in Northern Norway (NO4) in the second quarter of 2024 and the whole of 2025 is 15 and 23 öre per kWh, respectively. In 2023 and 2022, the average price was 34.2 and 25.0. In 2021 it was 35.7.
The prices are exclusive of VAT. Net rent and fees.
Sources: Europower and NordPool
Lake view
– This winter we are saved
– So there will be a decent current for the rest of the year?
– It actually does. The “worst case” scenario has been avoided, Botnen says, adding that the weather in Europe, although not Norway, was mild last month in addition to the wind.
Mild weather is also forecast for the future.
– This means that there could be no crisis if it had become really cold and gas supplies could be almost empty in the worst case. “We are seeing the end of winter and then the risk premium will be pushed out of the market,” he says.
This year and next, many LNG (liquid natural gas) terminals in Europe.
– Then Europe can import more than enough to survive the coldest winters, says Botnen.
– There is still a ghost ravaging the Red Sea, says Botnen, referring to Houthi rebel attacks on ships in the area.
– There are two to five LNG tankers that do not arrive every week from Qatar, but there are more from the USA. All in all, it’s going as it should. “We are saved this winter,” Botnen concludes.
Published:
Published: 01/27/24 at 10:50 p.m
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