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A column in the British Economist analyzed that the general election held in Taiwan on the 13th will not only elect a leader for the next four years, but will also pose a looming crisis for mainland China, which may make people realize whether the Politics that can solve the Taiwan question? Or we can only use force to force Taiwan to submit to Chinese Communist Party rule.
In addition, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an American think tank, also released its latest report on the 4th, claiming that the mainland has increased pressure on Taiwan at the military and economic levels, causing a serious crisis in the Taiwan Strait has led to the United States and many countries in the region and is particularly dangerous before and after the presidential election in Taiwan. . The likelihood of this scenario occurring is moderate, but it could seriously harm U.S. interests. The Taiwan Strait crisis has been listed as a first-tier risk for four consecutive years.
The Economist’s “Teahouse” column published the article “For China, Taiwan’s elections are a looming crisis,” pointing out that on December 31 last year, mainland President Xi Jinping mentioned that cross-strait reunification was a “historic necessity.”
Logically, he should rather hope that he can fulfill this promise without a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, which risks war with the United States. The safer option is to use a combination of economic and military coercion to force Taiwan’s political and business elites to force Britain to capitulate. Cross-Strait peace has long been based on the United States deterring aggression on the mainland and the mainland preventing Taiwan from declaring independence. It also depends on whether top Chinese Communist Party leaders can insist that the problem can still be resolved through negotiation.
Analysts pointed out that a victory by Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Ching-te would once again call into question the possibility of peaceful reunification between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait through negotiations. If Lai wins the election, there will be no “wait and see” period, according to China’s warning.
If Lai is elected, it is rumored that the communist army could conduct exercises in new ways to threaten Taiwan to deter it from taking radical action, and that the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) could also be completely suspended.
This column analyzes that the mainland sees the Taiwan election as an opportunity to test the sincerity of the United States because it does not trust Lai Qingde.
However, several mainland scholars believe China has little motivation to trigger a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait before the US presidential election in November, as China needs to know whether current President Biden can be re-elected or whether former President Trump comes to power could come again.
[Siehe Originallink]
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The Economist column analyzes Taiwan’s election and the coming crisis on the mainland
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