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The Bundeswehr has developed a detailed scenario of a possible conflict between NATO countries and Russia, which envisages the deployment of tens of thousands of German soldiers in the Baltics and Poland. The document, accessed by Germany’s best-selling Bild newspaper, begins with the Russian mobilization in February this year and ends with the looming threat of war in the summer of 2025. The German Defense Ministry declined to comment on the scenario, but said it was examining various options. including those that may be extremely unlikely. .
According to the German scenario, Russia could begin a new mobilization in February and draft 200,000 men into the army. Thanks to stagnant Western aid to Ukraine, the country was later able to achieve considerable success in the spring offensive against the Ukrainian armed forces. Moscow would follow the military advance with large-scale cyberattacks, particularly in the Baltics, as well as provocations that would take advantage of the Russian minority in the Baltic republics.
In September, Russia would station 50,000 Russian troops in western Russia and Belarus in joint exercises with its ally Belarus. The German scenario envisages further escalation if Russia were to deploy medium-range missiles to its Kaliningrad enclave between Poland and Lithuania in October. At the same time, massive propaganda began in Kaliningrad claiming that the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance were preparing for an invasion.
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At the same time, under the German scenario, Russia’s attention would be focused on the Suval Pass, a strategic strip of land along the Polish-Lithuanian border that separates Belarus from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. From December onwards, an artificially induced border conflict could break out in the area with many deaths. Furthermore, as Bild pointed out, the dispute would take advantage of a potentially difficult period after the US presidential election, in which the United States could be left without leadership.
The German document then envisages extraordinary meetings of the UN Security Council and the deployment of NATO troops in Poland and the Baltics, to which Russia would respond by further increasing its military presence in the region. In response, the alliance would adopt a deterrence measure, referred to in the document as Day X, in which 300,000 soldiers, including 30,000 Germans, would be deployed to Poland and the Baltics. The scenario ends 30 days after X-Day, with over half a million Russian and Alliance soldiers facing off. The scenario does not indicate whether Russia would ultimately give in or whether the situation would turn into war.
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Several NATO countries are preparing for a possible conflict, including Sweden, which is seeking to join the alliance. According to the Chief of General Staff of the Czech Army Karel Řehka, there has been no serious discussion about defense in the Czech Republic for years. In December, he stated in this context that a war with Russia was currently not likely, but also not unimaginable.
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