“Fight against Covid-19: shadow and light”

The editorial of Figaro, by Cyrille Vanlerberghe.

Cyrille Vanlerberghe.
Cyrille Vanlerberghe. Le Figaro

You don’t have to be a professor of virology to understand that the fight against the Covid-19 epidemic is not well underway. The dreaded second wave is here, without a doubt. France set a sad record on Thursday: that of the highest number of new positive tests in all of Europe, with 41,622 confirmed cases in a single day. With an understandable lag effect, the death curve follows the same trend. The 162 deaths recorded on Thursday are comparable to what the country experienced on March 23, less than a week after the start of containment. A parallel that has certainly not escaped Jean Castex, who posed the threat of a new total blockage of the country by warning that it would be necessary “Consider much harsher measures” that the curfew if the epidemic was not contained in the coming days.

The temptation is strong to want to overwhelm the government, it is true guilty of a difficult to read strategy often giving a sad impression of improvisation

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China does not wait until the end of trials to start vaccinating

DECRYPTION – Beijing takes the lead in the global race for the vaccine against the Covid-19, at a forced march.

The Chinese laboratory Sinovac presented, on September 24, the press campaign for its vaccine against Covid-19.
The Chinese laboratory Sinovac presented, on September 24, the press campaign for its vaccine against Covid-19. WANG ZHAO / AFP

In Beijing

First come, first served. The Covid 19 vaccine is still a sea snake in Europe, but it is already available to early morning residents of Yiwu, a prosperous city in Zhejiang, an hour by train from Shanghai. “We do not accept reservations, you have to queue, those who arrive early can be vaccinated”, affirms an official of the city, questioned by the site sina.com. Only 500 doses are available in this commercial hub on the eve of this so-called vaccination campaign “emergency”, reserved primarily for people deemed vulnerable, workers and students going abroad, beyond the great protective wall, in a world infested by the Covid, as the official press reminds us at the right time. In practice, any person can come to obtain an injection of this vaccine still not approved, against a sum of 400 yuan (50 euros approximately) for two recommended doses, and a signature at the bottom of a form.

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2021 Boston Marathon postponed from April to fall

After this year’s Boston Marathon had to be canceled for the first time in its history due to the corona pandemic, the 125th edition of the traditional race planned for April 19, 2021 will also be postponed.

As the organizers announced, the Boston Marathon should take place next autumn at the earliest due to the current Corona crisis.

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Protection against corona ?: Three vitamins help the immune system

A good supply of vitamins strengthens the immune system, this has long been known. British researchers have now taken another look at the effect specifically for respiratory diseases in order to draw conclusions about the corona virus. Three candidates are convincing – and one fails.

Keep your distance, wash your hands, wear a mask – many people would like to do more to protect themselves from a corona infection or to counter an infection with a strengthened immune system. Vitamins, which are considered to be helpful for other infections, come into focus.

Suzana Almoosawi from Imperial College London and Luigi Palla from the Global Center for Nutrition and Health in Cambridge examined whether vitamins help against respiratory infections and complaints. They focused on vitamins A, C, E and D. These are considered to be particularly important in connection with a possible Covid 19 disease. Vitamin A is said to strengthen the mucous membranes and thus make it difficult for Sars-CoV-2 to penetrate. Vitamin C is an important supporter of white blood cells and could therefore help fight off infections. Vitamin E is said to neutralize radicals and stimulate the production of immune messenger substances. For vitamin D, previous studies had shown that it can reduce the risk of infection in colds.

For their study, the British researchers evaluated data from 6115 participants in a large nutrition study from 2008 to 2016. Everything that the observed people had consumed in terms of food, beverages or dietary supplements was recorded. In addition, it was recorded whether study participants had infections of the throat, lungs or bronchi, shortness of breath or asthma.

Cold vitamin fails

It was found that participants who were well supplied with vitamins D, E and A suffered significantly less often from respiratory problems. Those who met or exceeded the recommended daily requirement with food or supplements were considered to be well supplied with vitamins. “The intake of these vitamins was associated with a lower incidence of respiratory problems,” report Almoosawi and Palla. 33 participants who developed these diseases took in fewer vitamins with their food and no dietary supplements.

The results were held even after other factors such as age, gender, body mass index, income, and smoking were considered. The scientists were unable to find any connection between vitamin C intake and the risk of respiratory diseases. This confirms the results of previous studies in which it has already been shown that the supposed cold vitamin does not work against respiratory infections.

Almoosawi and Palla see themselves confirmed in the assumption that an adequate supply of vitamins A, E and D are important for the respiratory system and immune defense. “Even though the mechanisms by which our nutritional status affects the immune system are complex, it helps maintain the immune system,” they explain.

Studies have shown that vitamin E strengthens T-cell-based immune functions. Vitamin D promotes the activity of the phagocytes and dampens the release of inflammatory messenger substances. According to the Robert Koch Institute, around 15 percent of adults in Germany have a vitamin D deficiency, 40 percent are slightly undersupplied. That is why the scientists recommend a balanced diet and a good supply of vitamins. At the same time, however, they advise against uncontrolled intake of dietary supplements, as overdosing can also have harmful side effects.

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Angela Merkel wants to convince the countries of this plan

Angela Merkel

For the Chancellor, the previous bans and regulations of the federal states should not go far enough.

(Photo: dpa)

Berlin In the corona pandemic, Germany is heading for new restrictions on public life: According to information from the Handelsblatt from coalition circles, Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) wants to convince the prime ministers of tough measures in the switching conference scheduled for Wednesday to prevent a loss of control over the infection process.

The contact rules are to be tightened, pubs and restaurants are to be closed. In addition, the sports and leisure area is to be shut down.

According to information from the Handelsblatt, the Chancellery is convinced that a “short and clear” brake must be applied. This is the only way to prevent a prolonged lockdown like in spring, which would have devastating effects on the economy.

How big the new restrictions in everyday life will be depends on the decisions of the Bund-Länder group. In the Chancellery, however, they have a clear idea of ​​the measures that are required: one has to act tough in restaurants and at events. It is also important that the meeting sends out a unified message to reduce private contacts.

Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) called for a “quick and consistent response” to the rapidly increasing number of infections. The new restrictions would also require additional aid to the economy. As an example, the CSU boss cited an entrepreneurial wage for self-employed people. Sectors particularly affected, such as tourism or the event sector, need further support.

The director of the Institute of German Economy, Michael Hüther, warned in a guest article for the Handelsblatt of serious consequences for retailers, hotels, restaurants, trade fairs and cultural establishments. A change of course in dealing with the pandemic is necessary: ​​”Politicians have got caught up in a one-dimensional security promise that cannot be fulfilled.”

Increasing new infections

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the health authorities reported 11,409 new infections within one day on Tuesday. A week ago the number was 6,868.

Merkel had appealed to citizens several times to limit their social contacts and thus slow down the spread of the virus. In the Chancellor’s view, appeals are no longer sufficient.

There was already a crucial preliminary meeting in the Chancellery on Monday evening. According to information from the Handelsblatt from coalition circles, Merkel sat down with Chancellor Helge Braun (CDU), her economic advisor Lars-Hendrik Röller and the virologist Christian Drosten to discuss further measures in the fight against Corona.

The Chancellor took a very tough line, it said. There could be no question of a “lockdown light”. Merkel, the previous bans and regulations in the federal states did not go far enough.

From the perspective of the Chancellery, the problem is as follows: With the increasing number of new infections, contact tracking is no longer guaranteed, and the test options are reaching their limits. In addition, there is a risk that, given an exponential growth in the number of infections, there will no longer be enough protective equipment available.

Germany is still doing well in terms of intensive capacity in hospitals. However, if the development of the infection process continues unchecked, bottlenecks and rising deaths threaten here too.

Division of work planned

After the meeting in the Chancellery, according to information from the Handelsblatt, the division of work was as follows: Drosten is supposed to convince scientific institutions such as the Leopoldina, the National Academy of Sciences, to adopt a tougher course. Merkel herself wanted to convince the prime ministers.

The heads of government of the federal states held discussions on the phone with each other and individually with the Chancellor on Tuesday. Also in country circles it was said: It amounts to a partial lockdown, i.e. more restrictive restrictions for certain areas such as gastronomy or events.

But much is still in flux. What exactly one can agree on, will only finally be shown on Wednesday in the video link. However, it is already becoming apparent that daycare centers and schools should remain open.

A debate on schools is expected in the Chancellery. Educational institutions should remain open as much as possible, but in high-risk areas one also has to think about regional closings. Studies and data from the RKI showed that there is an infection rate in schools. Children would then become “bridges of infection” that could carry the virus from family to family.

More on the subject:

Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) said on Tuesday, however, that daycare centers and schools are not drivers of infection and should definitely remain open. In view of the increasing number of cases, intervention must be made at larger events and meetings, “often also in a family context”.

But social life should go on if there are functioning hygiene concepts. According to Kretschmer, this is important for public acceptance.

Scholz calls for further measures

The Chancellor commented on the situation on Tuesday at a video conference with nursing experts. Although we know more about the virus today than in the spring and can “proceed in a more targeted manner,” said the CDU politician. “But even with the increasing numbers, if we do not adhere to what we know about the virus, we will end up in situations that are extremely difficult.”

Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) called for additional measures to be taken against the spread of the virus. The increase in new infections in the past few days was “very worrying,” said Scholz of the German press agency.

The German Hotel and Restaurant Association (Dehoga) warned of a wave of bankruptcies in the catering industry. “If our industry is practically banned from working for pandemic-related reasons and thus carries a special burden in the corona pandemic, the politically responsible have to pay for the damage quickly and in full,” explained Dehoga President Guido Zöllick.

It’s about the survival of the industry. “A third of the 245,000 businesses are threatened with closure if they close again,” said Zöllick.

The travel industry also warned of a corporate “catastrophe”. “If restaurants were closed and events were banned, small and medium-sized companies in the tourism industry in particular would once again become victims of the pandemic policy for no reason,” explained Michael Rabe, General Secretary of the Federal Association of the German Tourism Industry (BTW). “Nobody has yet presented reliable figures that our operations are among the pandemic drivers.”

More: In order to contain Corona, something other than further bans is needed, says Handelsblatt reporter Gregor Waschinski

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Ohio: US student dies after corona infection

NAfter a Covid 19 infection, another student died in the United States. As the University of Dayton in the state of Ohio announced on Monday, 18-year-old Michael Lang succumbed to “complications related to the virus” late last week.

The freshman, who had been enrolled at the university since the beginning of August, is said to have been treated in hospital for a long time before his death. Lang lived on campus before moving back to his parents in Illinois in mid-September for online classes.

Since the beginning of the semester in early August, the University of Dayton has reported almost 1,400 corona cases. To protect the students from infection, the university offered a combination of face-to-face teaching and online seminars.

In the past few months, pictures of partying students in the United States had caused outrage. Some colleges, such as Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, have now urged students to leave dormitories only for meals and emergencies. Lang was the third student to die after a Covid-19 infection. In early September, California University in Pennsylvania reported the death of 20-year-old Jamain Stevens. Three weeks later, 19-year-old Chad Dorrill, a student at Appalachian State University in North Carolina, died.

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NY Revises Its Quarantine List As COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Increase in the US; warn about travel during the holidays

What you should know

  • New restrictions go into effect Tuesday in Newark, where its mayor says he’s seeing more new COVID cases than all other Essex County cities combined; is part of a larger recent spike in cases in New Jersey
  • Governor Andrew Cuomo touts his micro-clustering strategy as an effective containment approach in New York, although daily new cases and hospitalization totals have reached month-long highs in recent weeks.
  • The three-state trends are when new infections per day are increasing in 47 US states AND deaths per day are increasing in 34; 40 US jurisdictions are on New York’s quarantine list, due to be updated on Tuesday

NEW YORK – New restrictions go into effect Tuesday in New Jersey’s largest city as officials struggle to contain mounting COVID-19 cases, a situation that mirrors many cities and states across the United States as cases rise. new per day in nearly 50 states.

Deaths per day have skyrocketed 10 percent in just the past two weeks across the country, prompting a growing number of states and cities to implement new restrictions. Calls to avoid vacation travel amid the latest surge continue to rise.

Mayor Bill de Blasio was the last to join the chorus on Tuesday, as he asked the federal government to order all domestic and international travelers to test negative for COVID-19 before boarding the planes.

“Everyone will make their own decisions, and I know there are painful choices,” de Blasio said. “For those who travel, please recognize how important it is to get tested and recognize that there is a very strict quarantine in New York State. The vast majority of US states are now on the quarantine list.”

Newly confirmed infections per day are increasing in 47 states and deaths in 34, according to Johns Hopkins. Death is a lagging indicator, meaning it may not be long before more states lose more people. Right now, the United States is averaging nearly 800 deaths a day, a far cry from the 2,200 it was seeing in late April, but a puzzling trend as cold weather and the holidays approach.

Forty US states and territories are on New York’s quarantine list, which will be updated on Tuesday. The order currently applies to the following US areas: Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi , Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming and Wisconsin.

Three more states, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, meet the threshold of new cases per 100,000 residents to be there as well, but Cuomo has said that border control with neighboring states is impractical.

There will be no travel restrictions in all four states, but Cuomo, along with Murphy and Gov. Ned Lamont, have urged people, both together and independently, to avoid nonessential tri-state travel where possible. With the holidays approaching and the weather turning colder, which means an increased risk of COVID related to indoor activities, the threat of out-of-state tides looms large.

In Newark, non-essential businesses, including indoor food service, must close at 8 p.m. Salons and hair salons can only be operated by appointments and gyms must close for half an hour every hour to disinfect, reducing the service time essentially in half. The new restrictions are expected to be in effect until at least November 10.

The localized rules were mandated by the mayor of Newark, not the governor of New Jersey, and are less severe than the hyper-specific geographic ones that Governor Andrew Cuomo imposed on tight access points within New York. In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy said he supports Ras Baraka’s decision in Newark and will provide additional state assistance on testing, contact tracing and compliance.

Murphy, who has been in voluntary isolation after a staff member tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday despite testing negative himself multiple times, has refused to implement new virus control measures to combat the increases. recent events in virtually all parts of New Jersey as new case totals rise to May highs.

The governor has reported more than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases a day for more than a week. It added another 1,663 on Tuesday, bringing the total since March to more than 231,000, along with another 14 confirmed deaths from COVID-19.

“These numbers are sobering. We are still in the midst of a pandemic and we need everyone to take this seriously,” Murphy tweeted.

According to Murphy, there has been no evidence that something he can regulate, like indoor dinners or gyms, for example, is causing the spread. He can’t control what happens in people’s private homes, and he says those are increasingly becoming the source of new cases. Instead, it urges people to be smart.

New York’s daily case totals, as well as total hospitalizations, have also risen in recent weeks amid its battle of affected groups. In general, the infection rate remains low; the state has the third lowest level in the nation, according to data Monday from Johns Hopkins. New Jersey has the thirteenth lowest rate, a steep drop from where it was during the summer, but still better than most of the country.

New York has the third lowest infection rate in the country, according to Johns Hopkins data shared by Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Cuomo has touted his micro-cluster strategy as an effective containment approach, criticizing White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows for recent comments that the federal government cannot “control” the pandemic. The New York Governor says the numbers in his state – rates for focus areas go down across the board – show that you can control when people participate, evidence is available, and governments execute compliance and enforcement strategies. effective way.

Increasingly, that lesson is learned the hard way. Dozens of American colleges and universities have seen rampant outbreaks of COVID-19 in recent months; most of those schools did not require testing before students returned to campus. Others have been denounced for not enforcing the COVID-19 protocol.

The State University of New York has been hit hard by several outbreaks, including one at SUNY Oneota in September, just two weeks after students returned to campus. SUNY’s Chancellor said Tuesday that students on campus from all 64 SUNY colleges and universities must test negative within 10 days of the Thanksgiving break. Most SUNY campuses will move completely remote afterward.

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How could the coronavirus epidemic end?

Second wave, third wave: the coronavirus epidemic seems never to end. Will we have to “live with” forever? Will the virus eventually go away? Can a vaccine eradicate the disease? Here are the various assumptions and the most likely scenarios.

It has been almost eight months since theepidemic of coronavirus officially turned into global pandemic. More than 43 million cases have been recorded and the Covid-19 has already killed more than 1.2 million people. In August, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that the pandemic was going to be “very long”.

« This pandemic is a health crisis such as we see only one per century and its effects will be felt for decades to come. », Says its managing director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Are we going to have to get used to wear a mask forever, never to kiss our loved ones again and to permanently strike trips and concerts from our vocabulary? Perhaps not fortunately, but a return to the “life before” is probably to be ruled out for a long time.

Hypothesis nThe 1: the virus disappears naturally

The first one SARS epidemic in 2003 has claimed more than 8,000 cases and nearly 800 deaths. But it was able to be contained and the virus hardly spread outside of China. SARS-Cov-2 is significantly more contagious and has already affected all countries. In addition, it brings more asymptopatic cases, which makes it more difficult to trace. Some had also hypothesized that the virus would disappear with the summer : on the contrary, it continued to circulate actively. In short, it seems far too late to consider this hypothesis of containment at the global level. However, China has managed to avoid a second vague but at the cost of its isolation from the rest of the world.

Hypothesis nThe 2: group immunity

When 60 to 70% of the population has been infected, the virus will no longer find enoughhosts to infect and the disease will be stopped. This is the hypothesis considered by the supporters of collective immunity which advocate letting the virus circulate in young people. Except that, after 10 months of the epidemic and 1 million deaths, we are still far from the mark: according to the WHO, we would be at most 10% of people infected at the World level. In addition, several cases of réinfection were recorded, and it is not known how long theimmunity natural. A scenario again unlikely therefore.

Hypothesis nThe 3: a vaccine ends the epidemic

« Global access to coronavirus vaccines, tests and treatments for all who need them, everywhere on the planet, is the only solution [contre le coronavirus, ndlr] ”, Says the WHO. Theoretically, a effective vaccine can indeed provide sufficient immunity to stop the circulation of the virus. Except that, for the moment and despite an unprecedented mobilization, we are still waiting for this famous vaccine miracle. « The vaccine may not work or its protection may only last a few months “, Warns the WHO. We also know that vaccines are less effective in the elderly who are precisely the most at risk. Finally, assuming that a vaccine is widely available, would remain at convince enough of people to get vaccinated. In France, four out of ten people are reluctant to face a potential vaccine. ” In the story, only the smallpox could be eradicated by a vaccine “, remember l’historienne Nükhet Varlik, University of South Carolina.

Hypothesis nThe 4: the virus becomes endemic like the common cold

Four common cold coronaviruses circulate commonly each year. ” After one emergence cataclysmic, SARS-Cov-2 could eventually degenerate into a mild virus like the common cold “, Advance Andrew Noymer, epidemiologist at the University of Ivrine, California. The influenza, which also comes back every year, affects 2 to 6 million people per year in France and causes 8,000 to 10,000 deaths. For the moment, nothing suggests a weakening of the gravity of Covid-19. Nevertheless, effective treatments could be found that would reduce the death rate, as is the case for Page.

Hypothesis nThe 5: the virus vegetates in a latent state

« Once a pathogenic has emerged, it is practically impossible to eradicate it completely », Warns Nükhet Varlik. Many diseases like tuberculosis, the malaria or Ebola reappear regularly in homes isolated. We more or less manage to contain them thanks to prevention or appropriate treatments, but this requires increased vigilance of the slightest restart of the epidemic. ” Infectious diseases are responsible for a third of deaths each year worldwide », Recalls the historian.

In total, « how a pandemic evolves depends 50% on science and 50% on political and social measures », assure epidemiologist Sarah Cobey, from the University of Chicago. And since neither scientists nor politicians know what will happen to this virus, we are forced to navigate a little on sight, which is not reassuring. One thing is certain all the same: a virus has no interest in killing the entire population of its hosts. At some point, he risks weaken or be less contagious, which will give us a bit of a break … until the next virus.

Coronavirus: the different scenarios for the rest of the pandemic

Article by Julie Kern published on 05/14/2020

As the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic is gradually ending in many countries, daily life is returning to its normal rhythm. But are we really done with Covid-19? A scientific report proposes three scenarios to imagine the evolution of the pandemic.

« This virus could become endemic in our communities, it might never go away. These are the words of Michael Ryan, director of health emergencies for the World Health Organization, at a virtual press conference in Geneva. Some virologists also believe that Covid-19 could become a disease that reappears every year. It would not be an exception in the family of Coronaviridae. Human coronavirus strains OC43 and 229E are two causative agents of the common cold that many people catch every winter. Furthermore, uncertain immunity induced by SARS-CoV-2 could not fully protect us from future infections.

The Cidrap (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy) is an organization specializing in public health issues attached to the University of Minnesota in the United States. Several researchers and doctors met to try to predict the future of the global pandemic, based on current scientific data (around twenty publications considered) and on those of the epidemic of influenza Spanish of 1918. Three scenarios emerged, described in a report, but none of them predict the virus will disappear before 2022.

Three scenarios on the future of the coronavirus epidemic

  • The first scenario is that of “mountains and valleys”. According to him, the wave of spring 2020 that we are currently experiencing will be followed by successive and regular peaks, but less intense at least until 2021. One-off containment and physical distancing measures might then be necessary.
  • The second scenario predicts a wave of the epidemic in autumn-winter 2020 and which would be much larger than the first. It would then be followed by several smaller phases of reappearance of the virus in 2021. This would impose strict containment measures so as not to saturate hospitals. In the report, scientists from Cidrap indicate that this scenario corresponds to what happened during the influenza pandemic of 1918 as well as the influenza epidemics of 1957 and 2010.
  • The last scenario is that of “the combustion slow ». Without a precise periodicity, the number of cases and transmission would gradually decrease until 2022. Scientists say containment measures would not be crucial, although infections and deaths would still be possible.

The researchers indicate that these predictive scenarios could be modified by the administration of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. With the population immune, the circulation of the coronavirus would be significantly slowed down. In addition, these scenarios are based on data collected for the countries of thenorthern hemisphere. Factors of comorbidity, such as malaria or malnutrition, which is rampant in some countries of thesouthern hemisphere, are not taken into account. Researchers conclude that SARS-CoV-2 could circulate continuously in the human population and reinfect new individuals every season, but with less virulence.

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New infections increase – stricter rules threaten

Convenience store

The number of nine infections in Germany has recently skyrocketed.

(Foto: Getty Images)

Berlin In front of the top CDU bodies, Angela Merkel warned again on Monday of a loss of control in the corona pandemic. “The situation is threatening,” said the Chancellor. Obviously, the measures taken so far are not sufficient, every day now counts.

The “Bild” newspaper first reported on Merkel’s statements, which were confirmed to the Handelsblatt from party circles. It was the latest warning from the Chancellor, who had sworn the country to difficult months in her podcast.

Merkel is likely to adopt a similar tone in her government statement in the Bundestag on Thursday. In addition, she wants to discuss the next steps in a video conference with the heads of government of the federal states this Wednesday. After this week, is Germany facing a lockdown like in the spring?

The federal and state governments want to avoid this scenario in any case. But the steeper the curve of new infections shoots up, the greater the political pressure. The SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach said that the number of infections could be so high in a few weeks that there would then be no alternative to tough exit restrictions such as in spring. The number of new infections reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) recently regularly exceeded the mark of 10,000 cases within 24 hours.

Criticism of government strategy

When evaluating the threat situation, politicians orientate themselves strongly to the number of infections – there is also criticism of this. A group of renowned German health experts points out that “the number of infections currently dominating the public debate cannot be equated with the severity of the disease in the epidemic”.

graphic

The group that has dealt critically with the government strategy in several thesis papers since the spring includes former members of the Federal Government’s Advisory Council on Health, health insurance representatives and medical professors. Many infections went unnoticed or were only slightly impaired, the authors write in their most recent paper.

“The drama of the epidemic is only justified by the serious disease progression or death.” That means: Instead of the number of those who tested positive, the focus must be much more on the occupancy of the clinics and the disease progression in risk groups.

The map of the Federal Republic in the daily situation report of the RKI is increasingly colored in the red alarm color. More and more districts are considered risk areas, so they recorded more than 50 confirmed new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the past seven days. In 71 districts, the so-called seven-day incidence was even over 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and in relation to the whole of Germany it rose to 75.

The number of reproductions (R value), which indicates how many people an infected person infects on average, is also in the red area. To contain an epidemic, R must be less than 1. According to the RKI, the value has been well above this threshold since the beginning of October, most recently at 1.39.

The new infections reported daily now exceed the number of cases from spring – however, the values ​​are only comparable to a limited extent, as much more is now being tested. But the new dynamics of the pandemic can be seen in the positive rate: if 0.75 percent of the corona tests were positive at the end of August, the rate was recently five times as high. The health authorities are increasingly overwhelmed with the follow-up of the contacts.

In contrast, the capacities in the hospitals are still in the green area. The number of Covid 19 patients in intensive care units rose to almost 1,300 last week, but according to the RKI, around 8,300 intensive care beds are still available in Germany. Five percent of reported corona cases currently have to be hospitalized, compared with more than 20 percent in the spring. The proportion of deceased among the reported Covid 19 cases has been continuously below one percent since the end of July.

Mean age is now 39 years

One explanation for the differences compared to spring is that it is now more likely that young people are infected who, statistically speaking, have a very low risk of a severe course of Covid 19 disease. In the past few weeks, however, more and more elderly people have been infected, the average age of the cases rose from 32 years at the end of August to 39 years. Since the disease is more severe in the elderly, the number of severe cases and deaths is increasing, according to the RKI.

Angela Merkel

The Chancellor will be discussing the situation with the Prime Minister on Wednesday.

(Photo: dpa)

Merkel also warned the CDU leaders, according to meeting participants on Monday, that Germany could soon find itself in a “difficult situation” with intensive care beds. The Saarland Prime Minister Tobias Hans (CDU) told Deutschlandfunk before the federal-state consultations this week that he did not believe “that we need or will have a lockdown situation like in spring”. But this will only succeed “if we, as federal states, work in concert with the federal government to set clear standards that are transparent for everyone”.

Protection of risk groups

The group of experts around the former health practitioners Matthias Schrappe and Gerd Glaeske calls for the protection of risk groups to be given greater focus instead of mental games about hard contact restrictions. The current debate on restrictions and safeguards is centered on the general population with an emphasis on younger or mobile people, they write.

The basic idea is to break the chains of infection. “It is questionable whether this will succeed,” the paper continues with a view to the spread of the virus.

The group proposes a number of preventive measures for risk groups. For example, hospitals and nursing homes should only be allowed to be entered with FFP2 masks, which offer a high level of protection against infections. In addition, elderly and sick people would have to receive free FFP2 masks through their doctor’s offices.

While there were major bottlenecks in professional protective masks in the spring, the federal government has now created large reserves. “It is better to use them now and replace them later than to manage them in warehouses.”

More: Cancellation of the party congress causes Zoff in the CDU – Merz: “Decision against the base”.

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Scientists unveil a fourth major warning sign for Corona

12:00 PM

Tuesday 27 October 2020

Scientists have revealed a new warning sign of the risk of infection “Covid-19” that should be classified as the fourth major symptom of the deadly epidemic infection.
The main symptoms of “Covid-19” mostly include a high temperature, a new cough, and a loss of the sense of smell and taste, but scientists now warn, both adults and children, of a fourth common symptom, which is a skin disease that can be painful and itchy in some The times.
Scientists from King’s College London discovered that 8.8% of those who reported positive test results for “Covid-19” had a rash as part of their symptoms, compared to 5.4% of people who tested negative. According to Russia Today.
For further investigation, the team created a separate online questionnaire, collecting photos and information from nearly 12,000 people suffering from a rash and suspected of having “Covid-19” or confirmed by it.
A study of the symptoms of “Covid-19” also found that this rash can be divided into three categories, including:
A rash of the type of hives (urticaria), which is the sudden appearance of raised bumps on the skin that appear and disappear very quickly over hours, and it is usually very itchy.
It can involve any part of the body, and it often starts with intense itching in the palms or soles of the feet and can cause swelling of the lips and eyelids.
A rash caused by prickly heat or the type of chickenpox that turns into areas with small, itchy red bumps that can occur anywhere on the body, especially the elbows and knees as well as the back of the hands and feet.
Fingers of the hands and feet affected by what has been called “Covid toes” (frostbite), which are reddish and purple bumps on the fingers or toes. They may be painful but do not usually itch.
This type of rash is most specific to “Covid-19”, and it is more common in young people with the disease, and it tends to appear later.
The British Association of Dermatologists said: “This is a common pattern of viral infections with a symmetrical rash consisting of many red spots or bumps on the body.”
It is usually accompanied by symptoms of a viral illness such as fever, cough, and malaise. Covid-19 patients can develop this pattern, but they may not have other symptoms.
Dr. Mario Valchi, senior lecturer at Kings College London, who led the research, said that “Covid-19” patients reported suffering from a rash for weeks, much longer than the more common symptoms of the disease.
Dr. Falchi added in the study, which has not yet been published in a journal or reviewed by other scientists: “The rash of Covid-19 may appear in many forms and at different stages of the disease.”
Valchi noted that the rash “although it is less common than fever, is more specific to Covid-19 and lasts longer.”

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