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Tesla’s famous coup and the lucrative May method
Published on April 24, 2024
Daniel Eckert and Nando Sommerfeldt
Source: WORLD
In today’s episode of “Everything on Stocks”, financial journalists Daniel Eckert and Nando Sommerfeldt talk about the furious podcast boom on Spotify, a high Munich Re profit and strong late figures from Deutsche Börse AG.
It’s also about SAP, GE Vernova, GE Aerospace, Danaher, MSCI Inc., Visa, Mercedes-Benz Group, BMW, Open End index certificate Daxplus Seasonal Strategy from Unicredit (WKN: HV1DB6) and Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets (WKN: A12GVR) .
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Will there be a silver town on university campuses as well? Attention as a new food source in the aging era[황재성의 황금알]
1: A super-aging society… Silver Town revitalization odds
2: By the end of the year, one in five people in Korea is over 65 years old.
3: Construction companies such as Hyundai, Daewoo, and Lotte compete to supply silver homes
4: The government pilot project was also selected as the preferred bidder last month.
5: Insufficient related systems and burden of high moving-in fees are issues to be improved upon.
황금알: 황재성 기자가 선정한 금주에 알아두면 좋을 부동산정보 >
We live in an era where dozens of pieces of real estate-related information are pouring in every week. Finding valuable information is never easy. Dong-A Ilbo will save readers the trouble. Every week, we will find valuable real estate information and explain its meaning.
‘Fire at the feet’
Aging is as big a threat to Korea as low birth rate. The problem is that Korea is certain to enter a super-aging society after the end of this year. According to Statistics Korea, the elderly population is estimated to increase from 9.93 million at the end of last year to 10.51 million at the end of this year. As a result, the proportion of the elderly population increases from 19.2% to 20.3%. This means that one in five people in the population is elderly.
The speed is also too fast. Korea entered an aging society (over 14% of the elderly population) in 2018. In just 7 years, we will reach a super-aged society. It is ahead of not only Western countries such as the UK (50 years), France (39 years), and the US (15 years), but also Japan (10 years), which has a steep aging trend.
Due to this, there is even a gloomy outlook that “Korea’s economic power will lag behind Indonesia and Nigeria in 2050.” This is the result of analysis in the economic outlook report ‘Road to 2027’ published by the American investment bank Goldman Sachs at the end of 2022.
According to the report, South Korea ranked 10th in the world (based on real GDP) in 2020, along with Canada. However, it falls to 13th place in 2030, then continues to fall to 20th place in 2050 and 24th place in 2075. During the same period, Indonesia jumped from 15th to 12th → 4th → 4th, and Nigeria jumped from 25th to 21st → 16th → 5th.
It is very likely that population decline and aging will lead to a decline in national economic competitiveness and a decrease in housing demand. On the 23rd of last month, Professor Lee Yong-man of Hansung University said in a seminar titled ‘Is the new real estate market brought about by demographic change: a crisis or an opportunity?’, “House prices in Korea will fall for a long period starting in 2040, when the number of domestic households peaks and begins to decline due to population decline. He predicted, “We will enter a phase.”
Related industries, including the construction industry, which was hit hard, rolled up their sleeves to come up with countermeasures. The strategy is to turn a crisis into an opportunity. The government and local governments facing the risk of extinction are also taking steps to relax related regulations or promote pilot projects in order to secure priming resources.
However, there continues to be criticism that there are still many tasks to be improved upon. Are we truly preparing for the impending super-aging society? We will carefully review the preparations of the private industry and government measures.
● Construction industry pays attention to Silver Town as a new food source
The construction industry is the most active in the Silver Town project. In a situation where there is an urgent need to find new revenue sources due to the housing recession, silver towns and silver homes have emerged as a future food source. This also had an impact on the ‘healthy and happy retirement’ plan announced by the government last March.
In this measure, the government decided to reintroduce sales-type senior welfare housing, which was abolished in 2015, to areas with declining populations (89 regions nationwide) and implement it starting next year. It was decided to abolish the requirement of being ‘able to live independently’ in the qualifications for housing for the elderly, and to allow those aged 60 or older to do so.
Various organizations such as REITs, long-term care institutions, hotels and restaurants, and insurance companies have also decided to be included in the list of organizations that can entrust the management of senior housing. If you move into Silver Town, it is recognized as an exception to actual residence, so you can continue to receive housing pension.
As a result, the silver town demand base has expanded, and the supply method has opened the way for greater diversity. Construction companies are focusing on high-end silver homes targeting high-income senior citizens and are moving forward with selling related facilities.
Lotte Engineering & Construction is taking the fastest steps. We launched ‘VL Le West’, a high-end senior residence in the Magok MICE complex in Gangseo-gu, Seoul, and ‘The Classic 500’, a premium silver town in Neungdong, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul.
Daewoo Engineering & Construction has decided to expand its senior business into a new business this year. Recently, we introduced ‘Baekun Lake Prugio Forest Morning Suite’ with MDM Group, a leading real estate development company in Korea. This is a hotel-style Silver Town located in Baekun Valley, Uiwang, Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do.
Hyundai Engineering & Construction is promoting the ‘Eunpyeong Convenience 5 Senior Residence Complex Development Project’ with IGIS Asset Management, a real estate alternative investment management company. This is a project to develop a complex facility including senior housing in the Jingwan-dong area of Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul.
Hanmi Global D&I, a real estate development subsidiary of Hanmi Global, is preparing to sell the senior residence ‘Wirye Symphonia’. Wirye Symphonia, which will be built with 115 units in Jangji-dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul, is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year and be operational by March next year.
In addition, Hyundai Engineering and SK D&D are also known to have entered into business partnerships with universities and related medical companies and are preparing to enter the silver housing business.
Large insurance companies are also actively expanding their businesses to prepare for the super-aging population. A representative example is KB Life Insurance. Through its subsidiary KB Golden Life Care, it introduced ‘KB Pyeongchang County’, a silver town, in Pyeongchang-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul at the end of last year. In addition, we plan to add ‘KB Gold Life Care’, a senior care facility operated in Seocho-gu and Wirye New Town, to Eunpyeong-gu and Gangdong-gu in Seoul and Gwanggyo New Town in Gyeonggi-do.
● Local governments and universities are also preparing to enter the silver town project.
Local governments and universities outside the metropolitan area are also showing great interest in the Silver Town project. In particular, local governments are taking active action in areas that are at risk of population extinction due to low birth rates and aging.
Goesan-gun, North Chungcheong Province, plans to build ‘Seongsan Starlight Village’ on a 34,866㎡ site in Yulwon-ri, Chilseong-myeon, with the goal of completion in 2026. There will be a total of 55 houses here, including 20 townhouses for rent and sale and 15 single-family homes for retirees and people returning to farming or rural areas. There will also be a community center with a shared kitchen and health club, a smart garden plant farm, and a book café.
Geochang-gun, Gyeongsangnam-do is preparing ‘Knowledge-In (IN) Geochang Arori Town’ in Jeongjang-ri, Geochang-eup, with the goal of completion in 2027. 16 townhouses, 32 single-family homes, a senior sports center, and a complex cultural center will be built on a 38,900㎡ site.
These two projects are being promoted as part of the ‘Local Vitality Town’ public offering project that the government has been promoting starting this year with the purpose of supporting the settlement of retirees and young people returning to farming or rural areas. Local Vitality Town aims to create a complex residential base for housing, care, and employment.
Seoul City signed a business agreement with Gangwon-do in November of last year and decided to create ‘Gold City’, a ‘Seoul-provincial coexistence housing policy model’, on an area of 300,000 m2 in Samcheok, Gangwon-do. The plan is to create a silver town-type new city in Samcheok City with 2,000 to 3,000 houses where retired Seoul citizens can live. Construction will be undertaken by SH Seoul Housing and Communities Corporation and Gangwon Development Corporation, and the goal is for occupancy between 2028 and 2030.
Gold City is a project that Seoul City promotes together with local cities to prepare for the era of super-aging. This is a project started by Mayor Oh Se-hoon in July 2022, inspired by Singapore’s ‘generational coexistence silver town’. In addition to Gangwon-do, the city of Seoul is also pursuing a plan to create gold cities in local governments that are on the verge of extinction.
Universities in non-metropolitan areas are also preparing for the Silver Town project. Chosun University, located in Gwangju, and Dongmyeong University, located in Busan, signed a business agreement with Daeryuk Aju Law Firm on the 7th of last month to build a silver town combining the education system and medical system on the school’s idle land.
Dongmyung University plans to build a silver town with about 600 units around the main entrance to allow retirees to freely access the university and utilize campus facilities. Chosun University is considering a plan to build about 700 units near Chosun University Hospital. If both projects are implemented, it will be the first time a domestic university builds a silver town on its campus.
The Silver Town that the two universities are planning to promote is a form of benchmarking of the ‘University Based Retirement Community (UBRC)’ operated by major U.S. universities. UBRC refers to retired middle-aged people receiving lifelong education through local universities or using housing and health facilities in connection with campuses or nearby hospitals.
● Government-led silver town pilot project also begins in earnest
The Silver Town pilot project promoted at the central government level is also gaining speed. A representative example is the ‘Silver Town Pilot Project Using Healthcare REITs (Real Estate Investment Company)’ conducted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport through Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH).
Korea’s first senior housing (2,550 units), a mid-to-large officetel (874 rooms), a senior citizen nursing facility (80 rooms), an oriental medicine hospital (120 beds), and culture on a medical welfare facility site (186,000 m2) in Dongtan District 2, Hwaseong-si, Gyeonggi-do. This is a project to create a residential complex containing facilities and commercial facilities.
LH selected MDM Plus as the preferred negotiating partner for the project on the 20th of last month. We plan to sign a business agreement as early as June. After the operator receives a healthcare REIT establishment and business license, we plan to sign a sales contract for the business site by the end of this year.
Kim Hye-jin, deputy manager of LH’s real estate finance business department, said, “If the discussions with MDM Plus are concluded smoothly, the necessary licensing procedures for construction will begin within next year, construction will begin in the first half of 2026, and completion and occupancy will be possible in 2029.” She also added, “The Health REIT company that will be established to promote the business will pursue a general public offering and listing in 2031.” If all goes as planned, it will be recorded as Korea’s first healthcare REIT.
The project site is evaluated as having excellent scenery as it has a golf course, green areas, and a river nearby. In addition, it is a 10-minute drive from Dongtan Station, where you can use SRT, Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit (GTX) Line A, Seoul Metropolitan Subway Dongtan-Indeokwon Line (2029), and Dongtan Metro Lines 1 and 2 (2027). This means that it is very convenient to travel to Seoul and surrounding areas.
MDM Plus, which was selected as the preferred negotiating party, will build 15 buildings with a height of 6 floors underground and 49 floors above ground, with the goal of creating ‘the happiest senior welfare housing that has ever existed in the world’, a golf driving range, a sports facility with a swimming pool, a performance hall, etc. We plan to create convenience facilities for residents, including a movie theater.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and LH plan to continue to expand the Silver Town project. Kim Jae-kyung, head of LH’s Regional Balance Headquarters, said, “Our country will enter a super-aging society next year, but housing for the elderly only accounts for 2%.” He added, “In line with the government policy to expand housing for seniors, the land owned by LH, including the 2nd and 3rd new cities in the metropolitan area and metropolitan cities, will be expanded.” “We will continue to pursue follow-up projects,” he said.
● There are few mountains to climb to revitalize Silver Town.
As the aging population progresses, the demand for silver town projects is likely to grow rapidly. The problem is that there are many prerequisites to ensure adequate supply. This is why the business community, including the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, is raising its voice for easing related regulations.
In a proposal submitted to the government on the 22nd of last month (‘2024 Killer and People’s Livelihood Regulation Improvement Tasks’), the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry requested ‘expansion of health management services in senior welfare homes’ as one of 100 regulatory improvement tasks. Due to the aging population, the demand for senior welfare housing such as Silver Town is increasing, but the unavailability of basic medical services is becoming an obstacle to the revitalization of senior welfare housing.
In fact, Company A, which is pursuing the Silver Town project, planned to comprehensively provide 24-hour health care services, concierge services, and senior-only cultural activities to senior citizens. However, the legal basis for having a nurse stationed 24 hours a day in the ‘medical and nursing room’ in Silver Town to provide first aid or provide personalized health and medical services is unclear, making it difficult to provide services that meet the purpose of the business. In addition, I was in trouble because I had no choice but to use external affiliated hospitals for all basic health care services.
The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry urged the establishment of standards for the deployment and operation of medical staff in senior welfare homes and the allowance of basic-level medical services. Considering the characteristics of senior welfare homes that require 24-hour management of the health of elderly residents, the key is to request that related laws be revised to enable basic treatment and health guidance at least at the level of school health rooms or workplace infirmaries.
There are many other mountains to overcome. Above all, the problem with Silver Town, which construction companies are currently working on, is that competition for luxury is focused only on the elderly with high net worth. As a result, the burden on Silvertown residents is excessively high.
A representative example is the B silver house currently for sale in Seoul. If there is no monthly rent, the deposit is 738 to 2.264 billion won, and if rent is included, the deposit is 600 to 1.839 billion won. This amount is close to the sale price of most small and medium-sized apartments in Seoul. The burden is further increased by the addition of meal costs and auxiliary facility operating costs.
As of April, C Silver Town in Seoul requires a deposit of 1 billion won plus an additional payment of at least 5 million won per month, including monthly usage fees, communal management fees, and unit management fees. In addition, in the case of Silver Town in Seoul, it is known that the amount that residents have to pay is a deposit (average) of 200 million to 1 billion won, and living expenses are around 1 million to 5 million won.
Measures are also needed to address concerns about poor management, fraudulent sales, exaggerated advertising, and concerns about it becoming a means of speculation, which were raised when the sales-type silver town became active in the 2010s. The government has also begun to prepare complementary measures, including mandating the writing of standard contracts.
● Silver Town VS Nursing Home VS Nursing Home VS Nursing Hospital
In addition to Silver Town, there are many welfare facilities that senior citizens can use. Nursing homes, nursing homes, nursing hospitals, etc. It may seem similar at first glance, but if you look at the details, there are quite a few differences. You can use it effectively only if you know its features and advantages well.
The ‘Elderly Welfare Act’ outlines the standards for these facilities. It was enacted in June 1981. The purpose of this law is to prevent or detect diseases in the elderly in advance and maintain physical and mental health through appropriate treatment and care according to the disease condition. It was also established to contribute to improving the health and welfare of the elderly by providing necessary measures to stabilize life in old age.
In Article 31, this Act defines the types of elderly welfare facilities as ① residential welfare facilities for the elderly, ② medical welfare facilities for the elderly, ③ leisure welfare facilities for the elderly, ④ welfare facilities for the elderly at home, ⑤ institutions specializing in the protection of the elderly, ⑥ job support institutions for the elderly, ⑦ shelters exclusively for elderly victims of abuse, etc. 7 It was presented as a branch.
Elderly residential welfare facilities are further divided into three categories: ① senior citizen facilities (nursing homes), ② senior citizen group living homes, and ③ senior citizen welfare housing. Senior welfare housing is commonly referred to as silver housing. Anyone aged 60 or older is eligible to enter a senior welfare home. In addition, the spouse, children and grandchildren under the age of 24 can also enter the facility together.
There are two types of elderly medical welfare facilities: elderly care facilities and elderly care group living homes. The elderly care facility presented here is a nursing home. Similar facilities include nursing hospitals, which are subject to the Medical Service Act. The two facilities also differ in terms of target audience, roles, and usage procedures.
If nursing homes are public schools, nursing hospitals are compared to private schools or academies. Nursing homes have low costs because the government subsidizes 100% of nursing costs, but the services available are limited. On the other hand, in nursing hospitals, you must pay 100% of the nursing costs yourself. Instead, you can receive close personal care services.
Senior leisure welfare facilities include ① a senior welfare center, ② a senior center, and ③ a senior class. Elderly in-home welfare facilities are a form of service, not a physical facility. There are five types: ① home visit nursing service ② day/night care service ③ short-term care service ④ home visit bathing service ⑤ other services provided to the elderly at home.
Reporter Hwang Jae-seong [email protected]
HR Ratings ratifies Mexico’s rating to BBB+
Mexico City. HR Ratings maintained Mexico’s long-term foreign currency debt rating at BBB+, three steps above investment grade; while maintaining a stable outlook, which means that it does not expect movements in the next 12 to 18 months.
The agency highlighted that the public sector’s net debt as a percentage of GDP was below its previous estimates at the end of 2023. This reflects the exchange rate appreciation and the greater growth in economic activity, despite the increase in the fiscal deficit observed during the year.
Although the rating agency expects an increase in net debt during 2024, in line with the fiscal balances budgeted by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit for that year, it estimates that starting in 2025 a reduction will be observed as a result of a fiscal consolidation that will allow maintaining a stable trajectory of public debt.
Likewise, HR Ratings noted that economic activity grew well above its expectations in 2023, attributed to the boost in domestic demand, especially public and private investment.
For 2024, the agency revised upward its estimate of economic growth, from 2.1 to 2.5 percent in its real annual variation, due to the resilience that economic activity showed during 2023.
In addition, he highlighted that inflationary pressures continue to decline, although the general inflation rate is still above the central objective of the Bank of Mexico.
Finally, he noted that he will continue to monitor in the short term compliance with the fiscal balances budgeted by the SHCP, public policy decisions regarding parastatal companies, inflationary convergence and the behavior of the exchange rate in the current macroeconomic environment.
The Ministry of Finance indicated in a statement that this ratification of the sovereign debt rating reflects the commitment of the Mexican government to the good management of public finances, to continue with favorable access to national and international financial markets.
#Ratings #ratifies #Mexicos #rating #BBB
– 2024-05-06 00:09:58
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