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As fault activity continues in the region following the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, earthquake experts are paying particular attention to Tunceli, Bingöl, Hakkari and Van provinces. While the opinions of experts became the order of the day again after the earthquakes in the region, geophysical engineer Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan assessed the earthquake risk in the Eastern Anatolia region based on Van and Hakkari. Ercan stated that there are three volcanoes in Lake Van and its surroundings that are very close to each other. He said that Büyük Ağrı, Küçük Ağrı and Tendürek mountains are very active volcanoes.
“A new earthquake and explosion are expected in this region.”
Ercan pointed out that there is also a fracture in the ground in Tendürek, which could trigger a magnitude 7.4 earthquake, and said: “A new earthquake and explosion are expected in this region.” I can’t only do something similar say for Tendürek, but also for Süphan and Mount Nemrut. In my opinion, Süphan Mountain seems to be the quietest among them. The ones that worry me most are first Tendürek, then Nemrut and then Mount Ararat. There have been rumblings beneath Mount Ararat since 1900. These rumbling sounds indicate that the magma chamber is being fed by lava coming from below. Therefore, if sufficient temperature and pressure are reached, an explosion will occur here. Of course, an explosion can occur in two ways. “It can be either in liquid form or in the form of sprayed volcanic bombs,” he said.
Emphasizing that there will be an earthquake in the Van region every 30 to 40 years, Ercan said: “Van experienced an earthquake in 2011. Another devastating earthquake will occur in this region in the 2040s and 2055s at the latest. If these fractures; “If it is like the Tendürek, Çaldıran, Süphan or Gevaş rupture, then it can also activate volcanoes,” he said.
“Hakkari will experience a magnitude 7.3 earthquake”
Prof. also discussed the earthquakes in Yüksekova district of Hakkari. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan said: “Due to the pressure coming particularly from Iraq and the north, the Arabian Shield is compressing, shrinking and stretching the Anatolian continent as if it had been hit by a bulldozer. This creates the Yüksekova fracture, which is a continuation of the Zagros fracture. This fault is an active fault and will produce a magnitude 7 earthquake in the future. We saw an earthquake last week that shows the situation is expanding. This is a symptom of that. We will experience earthquakes like this or larger ones. This range can be 6.5, but it can also be 7.3. “There will be a magnitude 7 earthquake,” he said.
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