Mortgages, comparison between Euribor and Eurirs: what you need to know if you want to buy a house
Il real estate market recorded a marked acceleration, in the first quarter alone demand grew by 1.9% compared to the same period of 2023, and even, calculating only the month of March there was a surge of 6.9%, after a 25% drop in contracts in the previous year. Crif data – reports Il Sole 24 Ore – also highlight that subrogations have also started again (+11% in January on an annual basis). If we focus on the quadro macro this positive market inversion has reason to exist. Because the interest rate front is now less uncertain for aspiring borrowers. After that European Central Bankfrom July 2022 to September 2023, raised the cost of money by 450 basis points (bringing the Euribor from -0.5% to 4%) the chances that the cost of money will continue to rise have now almost disappeared. At this point, rates could either remain at these levels for a while or, better yet, they could go down. Consequently the uncertainty of embarking on a mortgage today and having to endure further increases by the ECB in the future it seems to have disappeared.
A less gloomy scenario – continues Il Sole – is therefore pushing many would-be borrowers to come forward again. And this explains the awakening of demand. To this we must add the growing segment of “green mortgages” (see article below). It should be noted that the demand, both for purchases and for subrogations, he has no doubts about the choice of rate. In the 90% or more of the cases we are on landline. From the analysis of the rate curve and the comparison between Euribor ed Eurirs. The 3-month Euribor (the most popular among banks for linking the calculation of the variable instalment) is at 3.82%, just below the ECB deposit rate (4%) and very close to the probable rate cut of 25 basis points scheduled for June. The 12 month Euribor (which by definition is called upon to see a little further) is at 3.6 percent. This is because the market is not pricing in a very aggressive ECB. Because of this the landline is convenient even more so than the variable on a probabilistic level, there is no certainty.
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Mortgages, fixed rate is better. The ECB’s cut doesn’t help the variable
This afternoon, the Azerbaijani side completely cut off the gas supply in Artsakh that was restored yesterday
– 2024-05-06 04:13:06
This afternoon, the Azerbaijani side completely cut off the gas supply that was restored yesterday, after which the “Artsakhgas” company supplied the gas accumulated in the internal network only to gas stations, Artsakh information headquarters informs.
“The gas accumulated during the last hours has almost been used up, and the gas stations will also stop working in the coming hours. However, we urge all customers to exercise extra vigilance in the coming days, as the remaining gas in different parts of the internal network may gradually come out depending on temperature fluctuations.
At the same time, “Artsakhenergo” company informs that instead of the previously announced July 11, the schedule of six-hour fan shutdowns canceled today will start tomorrow (July 10), taking into account the interruption of gas supply.
Let us remind that during the 210 days of Artsakh blockade, electricity supply from Armenia to Artsakh has been interrupted for 181 days, and gas supply has been interrupted for a total of 143 days,” the message says.
World Bank: China’s 2021 growth to rise 7.9%
– 2024-05-06 04:37:39
/ world today news/ The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 7.9% in 2021, which is almost double the global growth rate forecast for the year, the World Bank said in its forecast on Tuesday.
“Growth in China is expected to accelerate to 7.9% this year – 1 percentage point above the June forecast – reflecting the release of pent-up demand and a faster-than-expected resumption of manufacturing and exports,” the World Bank said in a statement. in the publication of the Global Economic Outlook 2021.
In October, the International Monetary Fund forecast that China would reach 8.2% growth this year, after becoming the only major economy to post positive growth in 2020.
Manufacturing in China recovered faster than expected last year. China’s official statistics have so far outlined a steady course of its economic rise.
The country’s GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2020, reversing a decline of 6.8% in the first quarter and a rise of 3.2% in the second quarter.
The World Bank said China was an “exception” and the disruptions imposed by the pandemic on most other emerging markets and developing countries were more severe than previously predicted, leading to deeper recessions and slower recoveries, especially in countries with recent large outbreaks of COVID-19.
Ning Jizhe, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, said China will maintain a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy and stabilize the economy at a “reasonable” level this year, amid uncertainties in the external environment.
U.S. gross domestic product is expected to expand 3.5 percent in 2021, after an estimated 3.6 percent contraction in 2020, according to the World Bank.
He noted that shallower contractions in advanced economies, plus a stronger recovery in China, had led to a global economic downturn that was “slightly less severe” than previously forecast.
Overall, the global economy is expected to rise by 4%, assuming the initial spread of the COVID-19 vaccine becomes widespread and continues actively throughout the year.
Although the global economy is growing again after a 4.3% decline in 2020, the pandemic has caused large numbers of deaths and illnesses, plunged millions into poverty and could reduce economic activity and incomes for a long period, the World Bank said.
But recovery is likely to be delayed unless policymakers take decisive action to tame the pandemic and implement reforms to boost investment, the World Bank warned, as COVID-19 continues to spread with sharp resurgences in many regions.
“Although the global economy appears to have entered a subdued phase of recovery, policymakers face enormous challenges – in public health, debt management, fiscal policies, central banking and structural reforms – as they try to ensure that this a still fragile global recovery is gaining strength and creating a foundation for strong growth,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass.
“To overcome the impacts of the pandemic and counter the unpredictability, a major push must be made to improve the business environment, increase the flexibility of the labor and product markets, and strengthen transparency and governance,” he said.
Translation: ES
#World #Bank #Chinas #growth #rise
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World Bank: China’s 2021 growth to rise 7.9% – 2024-05-06 04:37:39