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A study predicts a dramatic increase in chronic liver disease, particularly metabolic fatty liver disease (MASLD), over the next 25 years due to increasing cases of obesity and diabetes. This is expected to cause liver cancer cases to double and the need for liver transplants to triple by 2050, highlighting the need for greater awareness and early intervention.
Liver specialists are changing their communication approach regarding liver disease due to the increase in cases.
The prevalence of the most common form of chronic liver disease is expected to continue to increase over the next quarter century. This escalation will strain healthcare systems as projections indicate a nearly doubling of liver cancer cases and a nearly tripling of demand for liver transplants by 2050. These results are part of a recent study presented at the Liver Meeting organized by the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease.
Rising rates of obesity and diabetes are attributed to the expected increase in the prevalence of the disease currently known as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, or MASLD – a designation recently updated by researchers from medical organizations around the world to reflect the stigma associated with it to decrease with the disease. Former name, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and to better describe the most common causes of this disease, which affects more than 30% of the world’s population.
Liver transplant trends
“With rising diabetes and obesity rates, MASLD is expected to become the leading reason for liver transplants in the United States,” said Phuc Le, Ph.D., MPH, assistant professor at Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine and principal investigator. on the study, which created a mathematical model that predicted annual population trends and the incidence and progression of MASLD. Hepatitis C is currently the most common cause of liver disease, followed by damage from long-term alcohol consumption.
Le’s model predicts a 23% increase in MASLD among adults in the United States, affecting 27.8%. The most severe form of the disease is also expected to increase, causing nearly twice as many liver cancers each year, from 10,400 new cancers per year in 2020 to an estimated 19,300 in 2020. 2050 and nearly tripling the need for liver transplants, from 1,700 cases in 2020 to an expected 4,200 cases in 2050.
“Liver diseases often progress gradually, with symptoms only appearing in an advanced stage. Increased awareness is essential to maximize opportunities to prevent liver complications,” said AASLD President Norah Terrault, MD, MPH, FAASLD. “Early detection and timely interventions can make a difference – that’s why AASLD is committed to equipping physicians with the knowledge and skills needed to improve health outcomes.” »
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