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Academy of Sciences Energy Foresight Committee Report – January 2024 SUMMARY
The public debate about the future of the French energy mix until 2050 has long been limited to considering only its electrical component in contrast to nuclear energy and renewable energies (EnR). However, the non-electric part of our energy consumption today clearly represents one of the biggest challenges of the climate and energy transition. Currently derived from oil, gas and coal, it represents the blind spot of the various energy scenarios available, but will nevertheless remain indispensable, especially in the field of Mobility and heat generation.
The Energy Foresight Committee (CPE) of the Academy of Sciences is investigating here what energy and carbon resources can be obtained from biomass, what specific advantages it brings by enabling the storage of energy in the form of biogas or biofuels, and what sensible prospects resulting from this These should be integrated into the national energy mix by 2050. This report focuses on the scientific and technological aspects, without ignoring certain environmental, economic, social and national sovereignty considerations, which are addressed in the light of the available literature and consultation of experts in the various areas considered.
After defining the term biomass in all its diversity, the report describes the various possible bioenergies and their limitations. The current uses of biomass in France are assessed and compared with the prospects envisaged for 2050 in terms of the actual mobilizable potential, for which there are large differences in the proposed estimates, and the technologies required for the conversion, which still exist for the most part expensive and of low maturity. In particular, this analysis shows that the demand for non-electric energy, as defined in the Electricity Transport Network (RTE) reference scenario, will be difficult – if not impossible – to meet. with biomass produced exclusively in France: the energy cycle in 2050 will inevitably require the maintenance of natural gas imports and new imports of biomass and/or bioenergy, creating new dependencies and exporting the risks associated with their massive use.
The report recalls that bioenergy remains the least favorable energy source in terms of spatial footprint and that biomass has a low energy return along the entire value chain. Its greater mobilization, which should not come at the expense of human and animal food security or at the expense of the eco-services provided by the biosphere, will have certain environmental impacts that should be accurately assessed. Finally, the replacement of industrial petrochemicals with a new “carbon chemistry from biological sources” requires significant efforts to adapt processes and research and development in catalysis, synthetic chemistry and biotechnologies.
These conclusions lead the CPE to formulate recommendations on the following points:
1. The need to improve consultation between the different organizations and agencies in order to achieve an accurate and convergent estimate of potential resources,
2. Carrying out carbon assessments of the various sectors and analysis on the energy return on planned investments to ensure sustainability and carbon gains not currently achieved,
3. Support the deployment of research and development in second generation biofuel sectors to increase their industrial maturity, 4. The further development of bio-based synthetic organic chemistry,
5. Prioritizing the use of biomass for purposes that cannot be decarbonized by electricity, through public policies that allow conflicts of use to be resolved,
6. The need for consultations on energy and agricultural and food policies in our country.
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