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In 2024 and the following years, the war in Ukraine will take place with varying degrees of intensity. Therefore, we cannot expect peace in the near future, believe experts from The Economist’s analysis department, who have suggested three variants of a possible development.
According to experts, peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev are not realistic in the foreseeable future. “Both sides consider the conflict to be existential and believe in a decisive victory,” say the authors of the study on the conflict in Eastern Europe. The experts work for The Economist Group, the analytical division of The Economist.
It is said that three main variants of the possible development of the conflict in Ukraine are on the table: from a humiliating defeat by Russia to forcing Ukraine into peace negotiations in the face of dwindling support from the West.
1. Trump will win the US elections and support for Ukraine will weaken
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election could lead to a weakening of Ukraine’s position. The re-election of the ex-president, who does not support military aid to Kiev, could mean a fundamental restriction on the supply of military equipment and weapons.
According to the study cited, the US would probably push Ukraine to the negotiating table with Russia, which would by no means mean an advantageous position for Kiev. This would likely lead to a strengthening of Moscow’s position, which would strengthen its control over the occupied territories, including Crimea.
This could happen according to the Czech president. “Ukraine will very likely lose part of its territory and we have to accept that Russia will interpret this situation as its victory,” said Petr Pavel during a recent visit to the Hradec Králové region.
2. Russia will take over most of Ukraine
Russia’s current territorial gains in Ukraine’s official territory may not be final. There is a real danger that Putin’s army will advance further west. “Russia could also move towards the Moldovan separatist republic of Transnistria and occupy the Ukrainian regions of Odessa and Mykolaiv, thereby completely closing off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea,” experts at the Economist Group said.
Buoyed by military successes, Russia may want to continue its expansion. According to Putin’s propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, Moscow’s only security guarantee is to reach the Atlantic. By this he probably meant the military occupation of all of Europe up to the Atlantic coast.
3. Humiliating defeat for Russia
There remains the possibility that Russia will emerge from the conflict as a defeated superpower, and further exacerbation of already significant military losses could also weaken the power of current Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin.
Even if Russia manages to replenish its lost military equipment, the above study reminds that Russia’s maneuverability continues to be limited by Western sanctions and a chip shortage.
For example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is convinced that Russia cannot lose and recently vetoed a €50 billion European aid package for Ukraine. The move followed the start of Brussels’ accession talks with Kiev. “Russia cannot be defeated, and therefore the EU must move to a new action plan,” said the Hungarian Prime Minister, among others, quoted by the TASS agency.
Ukraine is losing support in the West. Zelenskyi also has problems at home (May 12, 2023):
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