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Because time is needed during a pandemic to develop a strain-specific vaccine tailored to each circulating virus strain, this computational model underscores the importance of having a universal vaccine available as an emergency solution, the authors conclude.
If a universal coronavirus vaccine had been available in 2020, millions of lives could have been saved while we waited for a strain-specific vaccine. This emerges from a new study in the medical journal The Lancet.
In the end, it took “only” ten months for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to go through the entire process of development, testing and emergency approval. But by then there had already been hundreds of thousands of deaths and medical costs were running into millions of euros.
A universal vaccine against coronavirus could have prevented much of this suffering, new research suggests The lancet. Such a universal vaccine would then target parts of the virus that are common to many or all coronaviruses. It could have provided some protection against different tribes.
New outbreak
“Covid-19 was the third large and severe corona epidemic after SARS in 2002 and MERS in 2012,” says Peter Hotez from Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. “We must therefore expect a fourth coronavirus outbreak in less than ten years. “A universal vaccine is cost-effective and cost-effective and is an absolute priority if we are to move forward.”
To determine whether the investment in developing and stockpiling a universal vaccine was worth it, the team used a mathematical model that simulated the spread of a new coronavirus, similar to Covid-19, across the entire U.S. population. Any public health (e.g. hospitalizations) and economic consequences (e.g. lost productivity and direct medical costs) have also been outlined.
This shows that vaccination with a universal coronavirus vaccine without additional measures such as the use of face masks or distancing measures was cost-saving even in a scenario where the vaccine effectiveness would be only 10%.
Lives saved, costs saved
A universal coronavirus vaccine with 10% effectiveness, administered to a quarter of the US population within two months of the start of the pandemic, could prevent 14.6 million infections and cost more than $27 billion (€24.5 billion) save on direct medical costs.
7 million hospitalizations would be avoided and 2 million people would not die.
7 million hospitalizations could be avoided and 2 million people would not die, all with a low-efficacy vaccine as the only intervention.
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In a scenario where this universal vaccine would be administered to only 10% of the American population, more than $2 billion (1.8 billion euros) could still be saved in social costs (e.g. direct medical costs and lost productivity due to absences). .
Important emergency solution
Because time is needed during a pandemic to develop a strain-specific vaccine tailored to each circulating virus strain, this computational model underscores the importance of having a universal vaccine available as an emergency solution, the authors conclude.
“Our research shows the importance of providing some level of immunity to as many people in a population as quickly as possible,” said Bruce Y. Lee, a professor at the City University of New York. “The development, stockpiling and readiness of a universal vaccine in the event of a pandemic could be a game-changer, even if a more targeted vaccine can be developed three to four months later.”
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