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Important facts:
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According to Glassnode, the introduction of ETFs to the market has been “historic and chaotic.”
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The analyst firm believes that ETFs, halvings and hodling could drive the uptrend.
According to crypto asset market analysis firm Glassnode, “ETFs may have already been discounted to the price of Bitcoin (BTC),” it said in a report on January 16, a week after such cash products were approved in the US.
Glassnode claims that “several metrics suggest that a significant portion of Bitcoin investors viewed this as a news selling event.” Highlighted by Hodler taking a profit of 75,000 BTC (long-term holder), as shown in the following image.
The blue line shows the long-term stored Bitcoin supply (over 155 days). Source: Glassnode.
“The amount of spending on these older hodlers is statistically significant,” emphasized the analysis company. In fact, it contributed to that the biggest profit-taking since Bitcoin hit its all-time high price in November 2021. This can be seen in the next graphic.
Bitcoins sold for a profit. Source: Glassnode.
Such events “are relatively rare, but often accompany uptrending markets that face significant resistance,” Glassnode warned. Therefore it suggests this There could be a pause before the price rises Bitcoin continue the climb.
As the CriptoNoticias Cryptopedia explains, this is called resistance into a price zone in which supply is greater than demand, which prevents its rise and favors its fall. This is what happened with BTC as it fell from $49,000, its highest level in more than two years, to around $42,000 following the launch of the ETFs.
“The crucial question before us is whether the influx of demand from ETFs, either in anticipation of the April halving or from modest and reliable traders, will be enough to overcome this resistance,” Glassnode offered insight the factors that could affect the price of Bitcoin.
He believed that the approval of BTC spot ETFs in the United States “marks the end of Bitcoin’s maturity phase and the beginning of its growth phase,” as it gives the currency access to the world’s largest stock market. Therefore, it could drive the currency’s rise, which could be amplified by the next halving (BTC issuance halving) as this event reduces supply.
Finally, the analytics firm classified the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs as “a historic and chaotic event” for the market, with BTC prices hitting new two-year highs and new lows in 2024. This can be seen in the following TradingView chart.
Bitcoin price from the end of 2021 to the end of 2024. Source: TradingView.
Fidelity expects it will take “some time” for Bitcoin to be widely adopted
Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at Fidelity, one of the companies that launched a spot Bitcoin ETF last week, manifested According to Glassnode, the current movement of Bitcoin price suggests that it is difficult to continue the increase in the short term.
“I estimate that it will take some time to consolidate recent gains now that the big moment has arrived,” he said. However, he clarified that In the medium and long term, ETFs could bring new demand to the market This reactivates the ascension.
“Will this be a new chapter on the path to widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a commodity currency? It seems so, although it may take some time to get there,” concluded the Fidelity executive.
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