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Out of sight, out of mind, goes the old saying. In the USA it is fulfilled on the Ukrainian issue. In mid-December, for example, the Washington Post removed the “War in Ukraine” column from its main page.
Before and after
It’s this problem that has been overlapping for a long time. emphasizes the renowned Scottish-American historian Niall Ferguson. Even then he drew attention to three problems of the American “empire”. “When I wrote this in 2003, I was not fundamentally opposed to the Pax Americana (world peace maintained by the United States – editor’s note), which replaced the Pax Britannica of the 19th and early 20th centuries. I held and still hold the now heretical view that the history of the world is largely the history of empires, that no empire is without its injustices and cruelties, but that the English-speaking empires were comparatively better for the world than the possible alternatives. “He describes his point of view to the point.
However, he was skeptical of neoconservative efforts to change the order in and around the Middle East under the banner of a global war on terrorism. In particular, he doubted that the US could turn Iraq and Afghanistan into allies if the British had failed.
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Three Flaws of American Power
And that is precisely because of the three problems that the USA has as an empire. Ferguson explains that the American empire is “strange” because it is unable to even say its own name, that is, to admit to itself that it functions as an empire. The first is the economic deficit. The United States imports capital and is therefore in debt. Unlike the previous Great Britain, which had a number of foreign investments. “If you want to rule the world, it is better to own a large part of it than to owe it something,” he concluded.
Next, there is a lack of people. According to Ferguson, unlike the British in the 19th century, most Americans have no desire to live in distant, hot, poor and dangerous countries. For example, it is based on how short the soldiers’ service time was in Iraq or Afghanistan and how far away they were from local life. Likewise, American embassies are fortified and their employees rely on the amenities of the Western world, and without knowledge of the local language they cannot mingle with the locals because they have no chance.
But the main problem is attention. That is, its lack. According to Ferguson, American voters (and therefore American representatives) tend to lose interest in problems abroad if they take more than a few years to resolve. “The prediction that America’s desire to transform the Middle East would not last beyond George Bush’s first term in office has proven true,” he noted. On the contrary, Barack Obama prevailed by declaring that the United States would no longer be the world’s policeman. Syria then experienced the consequences in practice.
According to Ferguson, events since 2003 confirm that these three deficiencies limit U.S. power abroad. The budget deficit was 59% of GDP in 2003, but today it is more than twice as high. The U.S. military now has the fewest troops since 1940, when the United States had a population of just 132 million, and is struggling to convince its citizens to serve.
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And attention? “Attention Deficit Disorder is now so severe that the public is expressing displeasure at wars that they are only supposed to support with money and materials. “No American has to fight to defend Ukraine from a criminal Russian invasion,” Ferguson says, adding that despite all this, polls show four in 10 Republicans think too much is being done militarily for Ukraine. He also points out that the war between Hamas and Israel has diverted American attention.
Trump – a threat that Europe doesn’t know how to deal with
Ferguson then describes the situation in Ukraine. In his opinion, even if the next aid package does not arrive, there is no risk that the Russians will break through Ukrainian defense lines in the coming months. But the situation could already become dangerous in the second half of 2024.
Even voters in Europe had grown tired of the war, said the historian. “Neither Scholz nor Macron seem to be strong enough to reverse this trend,” he states. As he found out at the French conference at the end of last year, EU leaders know that Donald Trump could win the American elections and that this would have serious consequences for the transatlantic alliance in general and for Ukraine in particular. “But they don’t know what to do with it,” Ferguson says.
Some participants at the conference are said to have expressed the hope that Trump’s shock could contribute to the development of a modern European defense industry. Governments could force defense companies to join forces and give Europe strategic autonomy, a popular idea in Paris. But Ferguson responds that it would take decades to build such an industry, and who will defend Ukraine until then?
According to a historian, one of the French conference participants said that Paris and Berlin would not be able to replace aid if the US stopped supporting it. Therefore, EU leaders should urge Kiev to find a diplomatic solution. According to this participant, they missed this opportunity in 2022 when Ukraine had the upper hand. However, Ferguson wonders why Putin would now lean towards such a solution?
Everything against the USA
The historian believes that these debates will seem strange to historians in the future, when it will already be clear in 2033 that the Pax Americana in the 1920s faced coordinated resistance from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. And that the first step was the invasion of Ukraine, the second an attack on Israel by Iranian proxy forces and the third will probably be the Chinese attempt to break American dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, and if Xi Jinping is brave, then… blockade Taiwan.
Ferguson praises that the Biden administration was right to send a total of $75 billion in aid to Ukraine and two escorted aircraft carriers to help Israel deter Iran. And it started arming Taiwan. However, he warns that it would be extremely dangerous not to pursue such measures if they were taken.
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And what will it cost…
He then calculates the consequences if Ukraine has to withdraw due to a lack of troops. On the one hand, another wave of Ukrainian refugees will flee to Europe, of which there are already 4.5 million in the EU and Great Britain. “Even though many of them have found work, each refugee costs the host country an average of 1,075 euros per month (26,534 CZK – editor’s note). If another 4.5 million are added due to Russia’s progress, it will cost another 58 billion euros (1.4 trillion crowns – editor’s note),” says Ferguson.
Not to mention that private investors do not want to risk their money in Ukraine. The failed counteroffensive is already having an impact on Ukrainian bonds. And if they try to arm themselves to deter Russia, European countries will have to significantly expand their defenses. During the Cold War, Britain spent 5.8% of GDP on defense, France 5.1% and West Germany 3.6%. To break even, 124 billion euros would have to be given to Great Britain, 97 billion to France and 96 billion to Germany. 431 billion euros per year for the entire NATO. This is twice as much as all countries promised Ukraine last year.
“The Pax Americana is apparently coming to an end. The fate of Ukraine, as well as Israel and Taiwan, is at stake. I can’t say I’m surprised. It was likely that the overestimation of forces in the world war against terrorism would be such that isolationism would reign again. Today, fully 57% of Republicans and 51% of Independents say America’s interests are better served by using our resources at home to improve the lives of ordinary Americans. And only a third agree that it is best for American interests to support freedom and democracy where they are threatened. I’m in the minority on this one. “I hope that in the worst case scenario we are not right,” concludes Ferguson.
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The item contains labels
History, Russia, Terrorism, Ukraine, USA, War, West, Great Britain, Ferguson, War in Ukraine, Pax Americana
Ukraine (war in Ukraine)
Reports from the battlefield are difficult to verify in real time, regardless of whether they come from either side of the conflict. Both parties to the conflict may publish completely or partially false (misleading) information for understandable reasons.
PL editorial content discussing this conflict can be found on this page.
War in Ukraine
Reports from the battlefield are difficult to verify in real time, regardless of whether they come from either side of the conflict. Both parties to the conflict may publish completely or partially false (misleading) information for understandable reasons.
You can find updated brief information about this conflict several times an hour on ČTK on this page. PL editorial content discussing this conflict can be found on this page.
Author: Karel Sebesta
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