Will Trentino soon turn orange? Bassi’s analysis: “We risk reaching 150 new hospital admissions per week”

TRENTO. I am 150 people hospitalized in Trentino hospitals because of Sars-The-2, of these 28 are in resuscitation. Numbers that worry even in view of a possible passage in the orange zone, even if, as stated by the president of the Province Maurizio Fugatti any color change will certainly not happen this week.

“We are at 122 hospitalizations in normal wards – underlines Fugatti – orange will reach about 155 admissions, unless the situation escalates the classification (which is done on Friday with the data of the previous two days) it should remain yellow, despite the numbers of intensive care put Trentino at the top of the national rankings “. The numbers of intensive care hospitalizations in Trentino (as well as the incidence) they would practically be in the red zone. “It is true that we are at the top of the national rankings – commented Fugatti – but we are a small provincea and even small numbers greatly affect the percentages “. To finish in orange, however, all three parameters must be exceeded.

To analyze the situation, and even partially to respond to Fugatti’s statements, he thought about it the former rector of the University of Trento Davide Bassi which has long been evaluating the data on the evolution of the pandemic. “Trentino, like other regions, has to face the health impact of the Omicron surge. Many are wondering if and when there will be the transition to the orange zone. Someone is satisfied with not ending up already next Friday, others, perhaps a little colorblind (the reference is the councilor of Tourism Failoni ed), they claim to be closer to the white zone rather than the orange one “.

As admitted by Fugatti himself, and confirmed by Bassi, two of the three parameters do not help Trentino to remain in the yellow zone. In fact, the infections are in the order of thousands (over 3,000 only yesterday) so the incidence skyrockets while admissions to intensive care (data Agencies) I’m at 31%. Currently the number of beds occupied in normal hospital wards stops at 24%, therefore 6 percentage points below the threshold that would trigger the orange zone. “In practice – underlines Bassi – an increase in the number of beds occupied in a non-critical area equal to about 30 units would trigger the downgrading of Trentino. The anomaly in the ratio between hospitalizations in intensive care and total hospitalizations in Trentino corresponds to approximately double the national average. Someone defined this anomaly as a pure statistical fluctuation, invoking the reduced numbers of the ‘little Trentino’. However, aeven taking into account the specific dimensions of Trentino, the anomaly exists and is statistically significant “.

Ma what could be the evolution of hospitalizations between now and the next few weeks? Obviously Bassi put forward a hypothesis. “We know that the Omicron variant tends to cause less severe infections. But dealing with a very high number of infections, even assuming that only 1% of the infected have to resort to hospitalization, we risk reaching 150 new hospital admissions per week “

The fact, the former rector always observes, is that, even in the presence of large fluctuations, the number of new hospitalized tends to grow and it’s quadrupled over the past 2 months. The direct consequence is an increase in the total number of beds occupied because fewer patients who are discharged than new hospitalizations. “To observe a reversal of the trend in the number of beds occupied, we will have to wait for the number of new hospitalizations to drop significantly, which can only happen after a significant drop in new infections. Observing the trend in the total number of beds occupied in the Covid wards of Trentino hospitals, continuous growth is confirmed, albeit with large fluctuations “.

In other words, even if not immediate, according to Bassi, the transition to the orange zone of Trentino is “very probable – unless, concludes the former rector – in the meantime a lot of patients are made to disappear from the statistics, transferring the less serious ones to private clinics or moving, in the counts, patients from ‘high intensity’ to intensive care, so much the the occupancy threshold of intensive care has now abundantly jumped “.

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