Will there be a “government affiliated with Hemedti”?..Libya’s “unlikely” scenario in Sudan – Sudanile

Will there be a “government affiliated with Hemedti”?..Libya’s “unlikely” scenario in Sudan – Sudanile

Free/Private – Dubai
The competition for power has become more evident in Sudan, in light of the ongoing armed fighting between the army and the Rapid Support Forces.

On Thursday, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti,” threatened to form a “ruling political authority” in the areas controlled by his forces, “if his opponents in the army form a government.”

But the possibility of applying this idea on the ground, in light of the continuing fighting in the capital, Khartoum, and other cities in the African country, remains in question.

Analysts believe that “it is difficult to establish a civilian authority affiliated with the Rapid Support Forces,” and that “the scenario of having two governments in Sudan, as is the case in Libya, remains unlikely.”

Hemedti threatens to form a civil authority in areas controlled by his forces in Sudan
The commander of the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, said in a recorded speech on Thursday that his forces will begin consultations to form a civil authority in the areas under their control if Sudanese army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan continues “to claim false legitimacy,” according to what Reuters reported.
Sudanese researcher, Muhammad Torshin, said that it is “difficult” to establish political rule for the Rapid Support Forces in the country, “given that they did not actually control large-scale areas.”

Speaking to Al-Hurra website, Torshin added that “military deployment cannot achieve civilian authority, which is represented by state institutions and other governmental interests.”

He continued: “The deployment does not actually mean that it is controlling the lands and government headquarters,” adding that these statements aim to “try to put as much pressure as possible on the army and the Sovereignty Council.”

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“pressure” means
Since the start of the clashes in mid-April, neither side has achieved significant field progress at the expense of the other. The Rapid Support Forces control residential neighborhoods in the capital, while the army resorts to air force and artillery shelling to confront them.

Dagalo said in statements reported by Reuters on Thursday: “If this situation continues or the remnants form a government, we will immediately initiate broad consultations to form a real authority in the areas of our wide and extended control, whose capital will be the national capital, Khartoum, and we will not allow the creation of an alternative capital.”

Dagalo added, “Burhan’s formation of a government based in Port Sudan means that we are heading towards scenarios that occurred in other countries, with two parties controlling different regions in one country.”

In this context, Ibrahim Nasser, head of the Platform for Security Studies and Peace Research, a media network focusing on Sudanese issues based in the Turkish capital, Ankara, said, “Hemedti cannot form a city government.”

He added in his interview with Al-Hurra website: “Hemedti wanted to block Burhan’s path to forming a government.”

Perthes left office
Warning of a “civil war”… resignation of the United Nations envoy to Sudan
The UN Secretary-General’s envoy to Sudan, Volker Perthes, announced his resignation from his position on Wednesday, warning of the risk of the conflict turning into a “civil war,” months after he was classified as an undesirable person by the authorities in Khartoum.
Last month, a senior official in the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, which is headed by the army commander, Al-Burhan, said that “there is a need for a transitional government,” opening the way towards having two governments competing for power, as is the case in Libya.

Libya has witnessed complete chaos since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011. Two governments are competing for power, the first of which controls the west of the country and is headquartered in Tripoli and headed by Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba, and was formed as a result of a political dialogue in early 2021, and the other controls the east of the country and is headed by Osama Hammad, and is in charge. From the House of Representatives and supported by the commander of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar.

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Turchin ruled out this scenario, considering that “the Libyan model is completely different,” justifying this by “the presence of civil and political groups that pledged allegiance to Haftar.”

Nasser agreed with this opinion, saying that “there are political forces that support the army (in Sudan) in its steps to form a civilian government.”

On the other hand, “the political forces will not risk their reputation for the sake of Hemedti, who will not be able to find civil forces to ally with him openly, in light of his dwindling popularity,” Nasser said.

Nasser went on to say that “regional powers such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE cannot bet on Hemedti’s political project by declaring a (ruling) authority in any region in Sudan.”

“The features of the war will differ.”
However, Nasser expressed his belief that Hemedti might do it, saying: “Dagalo is reckless and could do it… considering that tribal advisors who are passionate about winning for the tribe and not for the homeland are the ones running it.”

In this regard, Torshin said: “In the worst case scenario, if we assume that the ruling authority of the Rapid Support Forces actually implemented this on the ground, this will reflect negatively on the Sudanese reality.”

The Sudanese rejected the military coup carried out by the army with the support of the Rapid Support Forces in 2021
“Rapid Support Vision”… Is the idea of ​​a “Federal Sudan” realistic?
Nearly four and a half months after the outbreak of war in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, the latter came out with what he described as his vision for a comprehensive solution, considering that the federal system is optimal for ruling the country.
So far, the ongoing fighting has left Sudan in a tragic situation, with about 7,500 people killed, while the actual numbers are likely to be much higher.

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About 5 million people were forced to leave their homes and migrate within Sudan, or cross to neighboring countries, especially Egypt and Chad.

Turchin considered that if Hemedti carried out his threat, it would be tantamount to “political suicide,” adding: “Sudan will witness real divisions in society, and the features of the war will be completely different, as there will be different groups fighting other groups, and the ethnic and racial dimension may be present in these confrontations.” “.

Free/Private – Dubai

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