Who will win the battle between fixed term, the dollar or UVA deposits in six months marked by uncertainty?

Who will win the battle between fixed term, the dollar or UVA deposits in six months marked by uncertainty?

For him conservative saver whose strategic plan is to maintain its capital over time without assuming higher costs, it is always a complicated mission to decide between which of the traditional options to channel your money.

If we add to this “structural” uncertainty that throughout the current year we are in the presence of primary elections STEP in August and generals in October, obviously the question is even more difficult.

Given this scenario, the options that are presented from the point of view of decision-making are varied, since they range from appealing to personal intuition based on the information that can be collected through the different information channels, having the advice of an expert in the financial field or, ultimately, resort to a source of information that reflects the opinion of an important group of private analysts, consultancies, banks, etc.

Such is the case of the so-called REM or Survey of Market Expectations, compiled and published monthly by the Central Bank.

What is the best investment for the coming months?

Although said report includes estimates of various key variables of the economyIn this case, the most important thing is what it does to the expected evolution of three fundamental questions: the monthly inflation rate, the interest rate for time deposits and the nominal exchange rate.

Once this information is available, it is possible to draw the estimated route for each of them for the next six months, that is, from april to september. It is therefore a semester in which the PASO will be developed and will conclude on the eve of the October elections.

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What is the best investment for the coming months?

From the compilation of this information, to which some assumptions are later added, the following conclusions can be reached regarding what are the best options, always keeping in mind that it deals with market estimates.

If the period in question is divided into two quarters, for the first, which runs from April to the end of June, the most profitable option would be the fixed term adjusted by UVA, Given the way in which the respective index is calculated, it would absorb the high inflation rates of February and March, which according to estimates would exceed those corresponding to subsequent months. In this specific case, its profitability would be around 21%, exceeding by two percentage points the traditional fixed term (19%) and the instruments adjusted for the official dollar, which include bonds adjusted for “linked dollar”.

What about the blue dollar

As for what might happenwhere the Dolar blueeverything will depend on what happens with the gap that separates it from the retail dollar. In the event that this is 85%, the increase would be 20%, that is, in line with the UVA fixed term, while if at the end of the quarter it increased to 90%, it would gain 21.5%. Finally, if you were to go all the way to 95%, you would end up with a profit of almost 23%. It would then be this last case in which it would become the most convenient option.

Evolución de las variables - En % mensual

Evolution of the variables – In monthly %

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Regarding the quarter from July to September, there would be a tie between the two fixed terms and the blue dollarif that is the gap against the retail dollar, since on average they would be around between 19% and 20 percent.

About two points below are located both ethe official dollar like blue, if the gap remained at 85%, they would advance 18 percent. Finally, if the gap were to climb to 95%, your gain in the quarter would be of the order of 22%.

If the semester is taken in aggregate form, the first two positions would be occupied by blue in its 90% and 95% gap versions, since it would rise between points by 46% and 49%, respectively. Below would be the fixed term UVA, with 44% and the traditional fixed term, with 42 percent. Finally, the official dollar would occupy the last position below 40 percent.

As for what happens with the blue dollar, everything will depend on what happens with the gap that separates it from the retail dollar.

From said to fact…

Beyond the result obtained, it should be noted that in an economy with the current dynamics, what the government decides will be fundamental. Banco Central in terms of interest rates. In this sense, from Eco Go they maintain that “it will be necessary to see what the BCRA does after the INDEC publishes the inflation information for March in the middle of the month.”

But not everything ends with the interest rate, since with a Central Bank practically no reservationsthe way in which the official exchange rate and its derivatives evolve will have their own specific weight in the coming months.

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