After several weeks of various electoral forecasts that were showing different polls, the results of the Simultaneous and Compulsory Open Primaries (PASO) allow us to analyze whether these polls were closer, to a greater or lesser extent, to the data that were reflected in the polls this 12 of September.
One of the biggest surprises was the poor performance of the Government: Although some polls warned of Alberto Fernández’s image drop and mistrust in the Front of All, the data from Together for Change as a first option in several provinces of the country they generated a shock in the ruling party.
In this context, the margin of error between pollsters with better performance when showing “the photo” of the ballot boxes of the Buenos Aires province ranges between 1.1 and 3 points. They are the ones that came closest to the final results.
Meanwhile, those who were furthest from the percentages obtained are between 3.67 and 7.9 margin of error, according to a survey accessed PROFILE.
The different readings that the world made of the results of the PASO 2021 in Argentina
The numbers of the polls in Province of Buenos Aires
Who was closest to the result of the PASO in the largest district in the country was Jorge Giacobbe and Associates, which in a survey published days before the election estimated that the sum of Diego Santilli and Facundo Manes in the space of Together for Change would reach 37.3% of the votes, while at Front of AllAs a space, it attributed 32.8%. In other words, he anticipated a victory for the opposition front by 4.5%.
The final result shows that this poll was very close to hitting the mark, since the result of the provisional scrutiny shows a difference of 4.3% in favor of the opposing force (37.9% JxC – 33.6% FdT).
While, CB consultant, tI have a margin of error of 1.1 points: predicted 21.1 points for Diego Santilli in the Juntos internal (he obtained 22.9), and 14.7 for his opponent from the same coalition, Facundo Manes, which obtained 15.1. To the candidate of the Frente de Todos, Victoria Tolosa Paz, his polls awarded him 34.7 of the votes, which in the official count were 33.6%. That is, CB anticipated a result with 35.8 vs 34.7
The Observatory of Applied Social Psychology of the UBA was close to the official numbers with a difference of 1.37%, Atlas Intel with a margin of difference of 1.7%, Federico Gonzalez placeholder image with 2.03%, Trends with 2.1% distance, Opinion with 2.47% as Electoral Observatory, Raul Aragón and Associates with 2.53% and the pollster Projection, with 3 points of difference in their numbers.
Among the consulting firms that were furthest away from the data that gave the opposition an advantage over the ruling party are CIGP, with a difference of 3.67%, the Marketing and Statistics pollster with a 4.2% difference, UNLAM with 4.6%, Trespuntozero with a 4.77% margin of error, Ricardo Rouvier with 5.27%, Managment and Fit with 5.3%, and Circuits, with 5.95%
For its part, the one who came least close to the final result was the consulting firm Cleavages, that had a margin of error of 7.9%: the candidate of the ruling party was predicted 42.3 of the votes, Manes 7 points – a little less than half of what he obtained – and Santilli 29.8.
Between smiles, Facundo Manes marks the terrain: “Only with Diego Santilli these STEP were not won”
Survey numbers nationwide
At the national level, the pollster with the least margin of error in relation to the official data was AtlasIntel, with 2.4%. He predicted 38.5% for Juntos por el Cambio – which obtained 41.5% – and 34.7% for the Frente de Todos, which added 31.8% of the votes.
Follow him Accident, which marked a difference of 3.43% with the results of the polls, Opinion with 3.75%, Celag with 3.83%, Synopsis with 4.02% distance from the data, and Ohpanel with 5.13%.
In the last place, the pollster who least approached the data of the PASO was Ricardo Rouvier: with a total margin of error of 8.95%, in his polls he had projected a triumph for the ruling party with 41.8%, exactly ten points more than those obtained by the Frente de Todos, and 33.6% for the opposition, almost eight points less than the official result.
AG / ds
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