warning light with the IMF for reserves

The situation of the foreign exchange market was one of the topics that Minister Guzmán discussed with the directors of the International Monetary Fund on his last trip to Washington, on the occasion of the organization’s spring meeting.

in those meetings the need to strengthen the Central Bank through the reserve accumulation policy was discussedsources in Washington told Scope.

The directors of FMI they stated to be in accordance with the policies that the monetary authority has been implementing. It should be remembered that the entity increased the interest rate and accelerated, to 4%, the rate of devaluation of the official exchange rate. Although they considered that “the policy of strengthening reserves should be deepened”, they add. Although, it should be noted that the IMF, in a “flexible” attitude, granted Argentina the possibility of playing future dollar for 9,000 million dollars, regulating the parity accordingly without having to use reserves.

In the IMF they remember that in the program agreed with the administration of Mauricio Macri this limit with the future dollar was about 3,000 million dollars.

According to the view of the Fund’s technicians, there is a relationship between the gap that separates the official dollar from the alternative ones and inflationsince it is considered that this difference feeds inflation.

the growing indexation of the prices of the Argentine economy is another of the concerns of the directors of the IMF, according to those close to the organization. These procedures tend to prolong inflationary inertia.

political noise

Meanwhile, for the Palacio de Hacienda, political tensions are also an ingredient that must be taken into account, as commented in this ministry. Guzmán himself warned that the internal ones hit inflationary expectations, including the price of the dollar.

Perhaps seeking to strengthen his position at the head of the economic portfolio, it was learned that this Friday the minister Martin Guzman will hold a meeting with members of the “red circle” in a conclave that will take place at the Hotel Llao Llao, convened by Eduardo Elsztain of irsa. Among other businessmen would participate Sebastián Bago, Martin Migoya (globant) Veronica Andreani, Carlos Miguens (San Miguel Citrus) and Federico Braun (The Anonymous). It should be noted that the realization of these meetings does not usually transcend.

Dollars

Beyond political issues, economists warn that the Central Bank faces the challenge of accumulating reserves in these months, that is, when the greatest contribution of dollars generated by agriculture occurs.

Charles Melconian He pointed out days ago, in a private meeting, that he considers key for the immediate future of the economy that the BCRA buy reserves in the coming months. “If you don’t buy dollars until July, it’s as if an ice cream parlor didn’t sell ice cream in summer.” graphic. In his opinion, he must add about 3,000 million dollars to get through the last quarter of the year, which is when the supply of agrodollars decreases.

The problem, they point out in the foreign exchange market, is that the BCRA is not managing to rebuild reserves at this time. The gross grew by 3,200 million dollars so far this year, but this increase is due to the income from the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) contributed by the Fund.

Discounting the SDRs, the BCRA has lost 1.8 billion dollars so far this year, according to a recent report by Ecolatinadespite the increase in agricultural settlements. In 2021, until April, the field had generated some 9.8 billion dollars, a figure that rose to 10.9 billion in the same period this year. But a year ago, the Central had bought 3,639 million dollars and now only 218 million, says the consultant.

The reason why the BCRA does not accumulate reserves are the high levels of imports that in March reached 7,100 million dollars, “an absolute record”, as required the vice president second of the monetary entityJorge Carrera.

“The growth of imports for this year has a ceiling of 7.5%, which implies deepening the exchange rate, especially seeing the dynamics during the first quarter (plus 44.3% year-on-year) “, says the consultant Analytica.

In this regard, it considers that, to meet the goal established by the BCRA with the IMF, the average monthly imports should be around 5,800 million dollars. And, concludes the report of the consultancy that directs Ricardo Delgado, “Most likely is a tightening of the exchange rate.” Of course, this implies affecting the level of activity.

Meanwhile, in the market media, it is said that the Cash With Liquidation is under pressure from investors who want to get out of assets in pesos. Regarding the blue dollar, it is pointed out that the inflationary acceleration makes the dollar attractive again as a safe haven.

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