US GDP and Spanish inflation belie all forecasts

Surprisingly, the GDP in the United States and Spanish inflation drop. Analysts predicted the exact opposite. And to think that there are savers who still think they can do it alone.

It’s the data day you don’t expect. Indeed, he did not expect anyone. In Spain inflation was forecast to rise and instead it is given a slight decline. In the United States we imagined a positive GDP of one percentage point and instead we ended up with a negative value of 1.4%.

In short, international analysts have either taken a blunder, considering their forecasts, or they find themselves having to face an economic situation that is very difficult to interpret. But today’s numbers, we will see what happens tomorrow with the European ones, could represent a strong indicator for central banks ready to raise interest rates.

All things considered, there seems to be less need for such a strongly reversing monetary policy. It might be useful to wait a few more days to see if the newly released data represent a flash in the pan or a real macroeconomic change.

Meanwhile, the markets remain at the window, but despite everything, the war tensions and the covid situation in China seem to read the impact better than expected. One thing is certain, those who should rethink the approach to the use of savings and the investments that can derive from it are Italian savers. They are called to a qualitative leap, one that no one helps them to accomplish.

The offer of products could also be simplified, thus allowing a more informed choice and more oriented towards the correct diversification of investments. We should take a cue, as we have already written several times, from those who know more than us. The world’s largest pension funds have been creating wealth for years by doing what we small investors should do:

  1. Focus on the long run;
  2. Diversify to the maximum;
  3. Not interested in market timing;
  4. Concentrate investment efforts by clearly identifying the objectives to be achieved.
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All this translates into one word: planning. Seems trivial right? But I would like to know from some of you, indeed from all of you who read, how many have really followed this simple banal, but extraordinarily important, path.

Macroeconomics proved it to us today: not even the greatest financial experts have the crystal ball to understand what can happen on the markets. They can’t do it, how can we think we can?

Leopoldo Gasbarro, April 28, 2022



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