# Brits' Plan in 1788 to Stop Smallpox May Have Backfired

> **Newsylist Open Intelligence Dossier** · First detected: 2026-07-09 23:29 UTC · Category: Health · Sources: 8 · Current Velocity: 6.36

## Executive Summary
New modeling suggests a British effort to stop smallpox in 1788 may have actually introduced the deadly disease to Australia.

## Intelligence Brief
Research indicates that a smallpox outbreak in Sydney in 1789 resulted in the deaths of as many as 220,000 Indigenous Australians. New findings suggest the disease may have been introduced via smallpox scabs that British doctors used to inoculate patients.


Coverage from Nature, Smithsonian Magazine, and The Conversation emphasizes the use of stochastic modeling to reveal the rapid spread and mass mortality following colonial exposure. Other reports from Phys.org, EurekAlert!, and Nine.com.au focus on the estimated death toll linked to the First Fleet.


Future attention focuses on the research regarding the role of the First Fleet and the specific mechanisms by which the 1788 inoculation plans may have backfired.

## Verified Facts & Key Claims
### How many Indigenous Australians are estimated to have died in the 1789 outbreak?
Modelling reveals as many as 220,000 Indigenous Australians died during the early outbreak.

### What is the suspected source of the smallpox outbreak?
Research suggests the epidemic came from the First Fleet and may have been introduced through smallpox scabs used by British doctors for inoculation.

### What method was used to determine the scale of the mortality?
Researchers used stochastic models to indicate the rapid spread and mass mortality of Indigenous Australians.

## Key People, Organizations & Locations
Study, Sydney, Australians, Modelling, Modeling, Brits Plan, Stop Smallpox May Have Backfired, First Fleet, Indigenous Australians, Smallpox Scabs That British Doctors Used

## Multi-Source Evidence Table
| Source Outlet | Headline | Published (UTC) | Verification URL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirage News | Sydney 1789 Smallpox: 220,000 Indigenous Lives Lost | 2026-07-09 17:16 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPWDREZEpMb2k4MVhnM2V6Qmt5SU91M0RrR0c3TjROYUlKMHJ0ellfeGl5RHlaUGlhR0NWdlJYc3FQSGZNYWhzd19EWkFUMTNoc01wT0tPS3FfVlRvN0FOSDRhOXNsRkRUMHNBcHA0VTI3TTgycGpqcjhvQTNlVGxrWWpvQUN0R2s?oc=5) |
| Nine.com.au | Study finds at least 220,000 Indigenous Australians died during early outbreak | 2026-07-09 17:16 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AFBVV95cUxOaHprNzE5NHNIcThMRG8xdUR5T1hQNFFsRUh1VEdRT3c5N3Iyb2EtSTVNYjlRX0o1OV8zeFVXVnllZzdCMjl2cEllVTlSdk9LQWt3V0xGQnpBZFV1OG9IeFAzcVQ3MUdkZENpRFZQLVV6MWwyZXlVVnFSVGF5LW1mQVpiNWVrek9SXzl0WFRjVUZaVzNUdElvN3V1RFF2M2tnVEFJVEVEelV5bG9MUkZSSE1mM0c2cnRTV2Fya3RURXJLWExmcUJ5Q19iRVFMbS1qTmZGZEV1blM?oc=5) |
| EurekAlert! | Modelling reveals Sydney’s 1789 smallpox outbreak killed as many as 220,000 Indigenous Australians | 2026-07-09 17:16 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXEFVX3lxTE01RlQwelVoZWtZOWI0WGNUS05wZVRORG5QeHdOZ2QtQ0xzUjl4WHFmajBjWWpoX1BCWUMtWUFBYmhfQlVoNWNYU2ptTUFhd2Zqam55WFVqcHduanJW?oc=5) |
| Nature | Stochastic models indicate rapid smallpox spread and mass mortality of Indigenous Australians after colonial exposure | 2026-07-09 17:16 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiX0FVX3lxTFA4anVFa3dZQmRKYjk1V3g4aUxucVpGRklrMHhJWHBtNUNrQmVyMjBvem0zMFM1OHJJMEoxZFlxSjNETlpfanRQQmhIU1UyNU5GMHlzUmlBcTJ6aE1MbXhZ?oc=5) |
| Phys.org | Modeling reveals Sydney's 1789 smallpox outbreak killed as many as 220,000 indigenous Australians | 2026-07-09 17:16 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxOUzd2akZvSHdOV2JOMkVNd2VNanRTS0VFS09YV21JVGYyWTZuSDl0LXhHNnJzZUl6dzlfVzVydUpqMjExZU81a0JTeVI0VElzYzRHb2dTSjhWM1lTWldKbW9TdzJsQlJuZEplQnlPRUdycFFGT2FRUy0yYUh3M21iSmE5bXA?oc=5) |
| The Conversation | Sydney’s 1789 smallpox epidemic came from the First Fleet and killed up to 220,000 Indigenous Australians: new research | 2026-07-09 17:16 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi5wFBVV95cUxOYzl0dkVVMHFORkZvX0tTTmVCT3F6U0tscEkzU0E1YkNVQXpfUk9uZFhMUTNTWXAxcTFYNFhJbzdSWk9OX21uV3lOcW5EZ19Pb2Z4X013U1B0SzJoaFYxYmdGdWRndVRNVWE3VTlCT21UWkx5MDliUGRRRnF1TWt6MTdTRFhURGZBanoxVEl1NVVFYkJfZVdCbEVVdGlzd1lMSjQ0WkRqb2MzVnQ5SG1MbHBxb0dUTkMxZnd6RWdXUjMtVmctNVZKNERqMEJXY3Y5Wm51ZlFkOTdnMmxwM0NQVWo1WGdLVTQ?oc=5) |
| Smithsonian Magazine | Smallpox Scabs That British Doctors Used to Inoculate Patients May Have Introduced the Deadly Disease to Australia, New Research Suggests | 2026-07-09 17:16 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAJBVV95cUxOVFlOZEdmdlJHZ0Q2bzQ2RWpIYVpwVG12akRDeER4YThyR1czMkpKNlRZcWVDX1pOeGFELVFENXlFTTZTREk2T1hNNXAyRlV1VkNJUmdYdnRUYWMxcGdWWmJ4amJmMW5PbHZhbnNrMmtSdG1FcmFWc1NUaVN0RFZNNE45MU9oUU16cnBxMVZKbFVaZDFEQWV1NHROYlZjQmw0VXdubmRfYjRSYm51UlljTWN2QW9xNm04Y0Z6emlfaVZKaXNPLUZReUFaVHJ6eXNvUEdITTRkdDBqb0NVUExZVmI3LVNmOV9OXzNxUnVVdndMcmotaFl4dFUwU0tnbFg1WlBRV0tKbEdmYVgtSkpnTG9iZGJFSlJh?oc=5) |
| Nature | Smallpox in colonial Australia | 2026-07-09 17:16 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiX0FVX3lxTE56cUoxOWp2T2Jfelc2NUlQV2EyaWtrVVJTa0VZNUVBM3ZWd0V2OGFfRnNTTmNwNFZTaDdsZ0t5MEZwSUd3di1pbVFYREgyWW90U21BRzBWS0pndlpwdTFz?oc=5) |
| Newser | Brits' Plan in 1788 to Stop Smallpox May Have Backfired | 2026-07-09 17:16 | [Source Link](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQRy0xQ0ptRkFCMXpfRVZTdFZjck03WVJJczdFckYxVzN3N1FaNGdjeFVIWEhCd0FWQm41S2k5UEF0SkY1TFJrX1ZUU20yak5ndXBNSU5pbmZ5T2FFd1VKc2J6RFV6TGNHcmJ2RGU0QkxQcHNzN0pjNlhKMnJlaEViZmg2N19IRXQ0bE9vQTV4enRUd054bzk4bGU4aC1lQ2YtOXc?oc=5) |

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