The El Niño phenomenon will probably be back in 2023 and if this is confirmed, its effect will be added to that of global warming.
The Met Office, the UK’s national weather and climate service, makes global temperature forecasts for the coming year. In 2023, their climate models estimate it could be between +1.08°C and +1.32°C above pre-industrial levels, making this new year one of the warmest on record. This would be the tenth consecutive year at +1°C.
Temperature rise has been limited by La Niña in 2022
In the last three years, despite the effect of global warming, the rise in temperatures has been limited by the La Niña climatic phenomenon. The latter is a natural phenomenon which occurs in phases of one or two years, very rarely three years as is currently the case, and which is characterized by a cooling of part of the waters of the Pacific. Its hot counterpart The boyThe boy is, for its part, characterized by warmer water than the average in this same area of the Pacific. The two phases occur successively alternately, sometimes interspersed with a neutral phase (with an average water temperature). These two major climatic phenomena influence the weather reportweather report from one part of the world (North and South America, hurricane season in the Atlantic, Australia, Africa, Asia). In Europe, the impact of La Niña and El Niño is not yet known.
El Niño likely to return from May 2023
This anomaliesanomalies temperatures in the Pacific therefore has important consequences: apart from the droughtsdroughts in some countries and heavy rainfall in others, “El Niño years” are generally warmer than those marked by La Niña. However, after this “triple La Niña”, all long-term weather forecasting organizations, such as the Met Office, envisage the return of El Niño in 2023. After a neutral phase between February and April, El Niño should be back from May. If this is confirmed, 2023 will most likely be warmer than 2022. Note that we are talking about the global average temperature here, and that it is not possible to deduce anything for France.
For some countries badly affected by La Niña, the return of its hot counterpart is good news. La Niña, for example, is much more expensive than El Niño for the United States and Australia. Some climatologistsclimatologists think that after a La Niña episode as long as the one we have just experienced, we risk witnessing a “super El Niño” in 2023, or 2024, with a significant increase in global temperatures, to which will be added the worsening global warming.
The year 2016, with +1.23°C compared to pre-industrial levels, remains to this day the hottest ever recorded in the world since records began in 1850. It had been marked by a particularly strong El Niño episode.