Saturday, may 13ththe final of the festival of Eurovision 2023. Like every year, there are favourites, based on bookmaker estimates and Spotify streams. Based on both scales, the winner would be the Swedish of flowerswith its theme Tattoo. But what does science say about it? Can predictions be made taking into account the winning themes in other editions?
The truth is that something can be done, although, logically, they are not infallible calculations. Some statesmen and music experts they have already made their calculations and have established what makes Eurovision songs attractive to the public.
Let’s see some examples, but taking into account that these calculations are based only on the music and the lyrics of the songs. It is undeniable that the geopolitics It has a very important role in the Eurovision results, but we will not take it into account in this article.
Better alone than accompanied
The doctor Liam Brierleyprofessor at the University of Liverpool and ambassador of the Royal Statistical Society From United Kingdom, have done some calculations based on the results of Eurovision, since it began in 1956. He has found several factors that can increase the probability of winning, but above all there are two that seem to influence the most.
On the one hand, the musical style. According to the mathematician, the songs that are made with the most victories are usually pop, ballads or dance musicalthough it also usually works well folklore of the country in question.
On the other hand, soloists are 15% more likely to win than duos and groups. These are all trends; but, logically, they are not always fulfilled. Good example of this are Lordi y Moonshine. The first gave victory to Finland in 2006 with the theme Hard Rock Hallelujah; which, as its name indicates, is a harder rock song. As for the Italians Måneskin, they were the winners of Eurovision in 2021, with the rocker Shut up and good. Both are groups, with styles that are out of the average, but they rose to the top of the classification.
Actually, there is no perfect song. If there were, all countries would carry it. However, beyond the style and the number of performers, the Associate Dean of Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Winchester, Glenn Fosbraeyhas also made its own calculations. In an article for The Conversationhas analyzed the last 20 Eurovision winning songs, and has reached several conclusions.
Of those 20 songs, 17 were in English17 spoke about relationships13 used the word “love”18 had at least one direct allusion from the first person to the secondand they all used repeated choruses. In addition, most employed many cliches and rhymes. The author himself acknowledges that clichés may vary for different ages and cultures, but it could be said on a general level.
Now, again it refers to trends. There is more to see, again, the issues mentioned above. The members of Lordi sang in English, but they did a oda al rock, in which heaven and hell came together to turn their music into something heavenly. There were no relationships, no love. Some rhyme, but very few clichés.
As for Måneskin, they sang in Italian. Your song defended the different. To those people who, in one way or another, have had to make an effort to fit in. There are no relationships or love, and just a small reference from first to second person. In addition, it can precisely be seen as a critique of clichés
Could Blanca Paloma win?
White Dovewith his HeyEurovision is presented with a risky, although interesting bet, which has also been ranked fifth in bookmakers.
But, taking into account the statistics of scientists, are there possibilities?
It all depends on the calculations on which we base ourselves. Brierly’s predictions would be very favorable for the Spanish interpreter. Is a soloistwho has also chosen as musical style the folklore of his country.
On the other hand, the theme of the song is not very in line with the Eurovision trends set by Fosbraey. For starters, the song not in englishbut in Spanish. It doesn’t talk about a relationshipno. At least not a loving relationship, but that of a mother with a child, because she does not stop being a nanny. yes there is me to you references, as the woman sings to the child. But, even though it is a clear gesture of the purest love, she does not use the word as is. That yes, yes she says “little of my loves”, so there we could have the term covered.
As for the rhymes and clichés, he uses an assonant rhyme that is not very marked, but adds a lot of rhythm to the song. There is clichés? It depends on what we understand as clichés. A mother’s love for a child can be seen as such, but she does not use very hackneyed phrases or expressions in that regard. What it does have, like the Lordi and Måneskin themes, is a repetitive chorus. In fact, in this case it is very repetitive: barely two letters that become a ritual that we can hardly get out of our heads. Will the proposal convince the jury and the Eurofans? We will know soon. At least, you have some of the necessary ingredients to win. With statistics in hand, of course.
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