This work was written at the beginning of the Russian invasion of the Independent Republic of Ukraine in February 2022. Fifteen months after it began, today more than ever the decision to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of human beings appears incomprehensible. The fears of whoever wrote this on that date, very unfortunately today I can reaffirm, what is, for some imminent danger of a confrontation on a larger scale with the participation of other powers, which is not going away, on the contrary, it seems that it is it approaches without regard and with an undisguised tendency on the part of some main actors to live experiences of those, for example, that when the journey begins it is difficult to stop as is the use of nuclear nuclear weapons.
After World War II, the United States of America did not stop at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they continued to develop this power, both offensive and dissuasive. (5500 nuclear warheads)). The USSR, today the Russian Federation (6270) developed large-scale nuclear weapons, also the PRC (450)the United Kingdom (280) and France (300). At the beginning of the 1960s, some of the so-called emerging countries are now part of that limited club. I am referring to the Republic of North Korea, Israel, Pakistan and India, who have in their arsenals figures close to 100 nuclear warheads. Dear readers, I propose that we look at the essential lines of the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction or also la Mutual Assured Destruction, MAD for its acronym in English. A basic concept of logics of reciprocal deterrence between two or more nuclear powers is that, in the event that one of them decides to use these weapons, the destruction of one as of the other is assured. A concept that until yesterday, before the illegal and reprehensible Russian invasion of the Republic of Ukraine, was considered not very valid, since the world, yes, certainly with the normal vicissitudes of all human processes, was marching on an acceptably path. peaceful, in terms of confrontations that could endanger world peace.
This doctrine has its theoretical and practical basis in the capacity of each bloc to annihilate the other by means of a massive nuclear attack in case of aggression: the first one that tries to destroy the other is in a certain way guaranteed to be destroyed in turn, completely nullifying the interest of such an attack. The constituted powers represented forces of destruction capable of “blow up the planet”, according to a popular expression that was very fashionable at the time, of the so-called cold war, in the event of a nuclear war.
As a consequence of the Russian invasion of the Republic of Ukraine, this theory continues to be valid. however the call Mutual Assured Destruction doctrineis a key element having all deterrence as a strategy. Waving nuclear threats as the Russian Federation is repeatedly doing, makes this doctrine also remembered by intermediate nuclear powers, which do not have the power of mass destruction as the one impudently exhibited by the Russian government.
Well the danger of spreading the conflict that concerns us today, during the first fifteen months, has been limited to the Russian-Ukrainian border, so I believe it is necessary to highlight a fact that creates great unrest in this complex geopolitical game, as it is that a couple of days ago, the vice-president of the Council of Russian Security, Dmitry Medvedeva highly trusted person of President Putin, declared that senior British officials can be considered “legitimate military objectives, as the” UK is waging an undeclared war against Russia. Today the United Kingdom acts as an ally of Ukraine, gives it military aid with weapons and specialists, in fact it wages an undeclared war against Russia». curious reasoning
On what we could call the continuation of this escalation of Russian threats, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, argued that Western countries will run “colossal risks” if they supply Ukraine F-16 fighter jets. Both threats made on May 20, 2023. Well, the F-16s will be a reality in the skies of Ukraine in a few weeks.
The United States of America did not stop at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they continued to develop this power, both offensive and deterrent. The five countries with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons are coincidentally the permanent members of the Security Council of the United Nations Organization, which ironically is in charge of maintaining Peace in the world. Let us go back to earlier times and remember that on July 1, 1968, the world, desirous of peace and under the auspices of the UN, saw how a process was opened that concluded with the signing of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). “Since then, it has become the cornerstone of international action to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, with the ultimate goal of eliminating them and promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy.” It is around the year 1995, when this instrument, the only one in history since man created this destructive weapon and where the only victim is its creator, celebrated its first 25 years. of full force. The Treaty was extended on this occasion indefinitely. The NPT remains unique in that there is no other international agreement based on negotiation between states with and without nuclear weapons.
Dear readers, I think we must go back in time again, it is about December 8, 1987, when two presidents with a great sense of their responsibilities, such as Mr. Ronald Reagan, President of the United States of America and Mr. Mihail Gotbachev, President of the Soviet Union, signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, INFwhich expanded the commitment of the two great nuclear superpowers to continue reducing this diabolical weaponry in order to continue walking the path of Peace.
Notwithstanding the importance of this fundamental agreement for the maintenance of Peace in the world, the United States announced the February 2, 2019, in person of President Donald Trump his withdrawal from the historic treaty, due to alleged violations by the Russian Federation. The INF treaty prohibited the use of missiles with a range of between 500 and 5,500 kilometers and put an end to the dangerous development of nuclear warheads between the two powers. The INF was an important contribution to peacekeeping.
Obviously the response from the Russian Federation was immediate. That same night, President Putin declared in a meeting with his foreign and defense ministers and broadcast on Russian television that the Americans withdrew from the treaty in question, for which he announced to the nation that Russia was also doing so. The reality is that when the Americans withdrew from the treaty at the hands of Trump, who inexplicably and repeatedly has expressed his admiration for President Putin. Scholars of international relations interpret this decision as an “involuntary help to Russia” in its already old project of invading Ukraine, with all the consequences that could entail and that in fact today we can verify.
I conclude by quoting Professor Ulrich Kühn, from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, in the Federal Republic of Germany, who on August 1, 2019 told us that the end of the INF treaty it was “very bad news for European security”, adding that this means that “we basically go back to the 1980s and we could again see those missiles targeting Western Europe from the Russian side and maybe within a year or two from the Western side targeting Russia as well.”
Well, distinguished Professor Kühn, your fears came true. Not only did we go backwards, but everything seems to indicate that we are not very far from a real threat of the third world war. B.Until seeing today, June 3, the Russian missiles aiming from the border with Finland towards Northern Europe and from the Republic of Belarus, doing so openly towards Europe that begins in Poland and ends in the Republic of Ireland.