Three elements will be decisive in an outbreak of the virus this winter: our immunity, the variants … and the human factor.

The variable of immunity

Whatever the country, the vaccination rate is known: for example as of November 19, 76.4% in France. A given (In information technology, a data is an elementary description, …) is unknown, however: how many people have had COVID? We may have a Name (The notion of number in linguistics is dealt with in the article “Number …) total (Total is the quality of what is complete, without exception. From an accounting point of view, a …) of cases, it partly overlaps with the vaccinated and therefore does not tell us anything about theensemble (In set theory, a set intuitively designates a collection …) of those who now have antibodies in them.

As the journalist (A journalist is a person whose professional activity is journalism. We are talking …) Sarah Zhang in the magazine The Atlantic, “this uncertainty is important because even a small percentage (A percentage is a way of expressing a proportion or a fraction in a whole. A …) may result in a large number of people “susceptible to infection and therefore hospitalization. And because the unvaccinated tend to be people who share similar affinities, or are more numerous in certain neighborhoods or regions, the risk of new outbreaks is therefore greater than if they were evenly distributed in the population.

This is what we are currently observing in several pays (Country comes from the Latin pagus which meant a territorial and tribal subdivision of extent …) d’Europe (Europe is a land region that can be considered a …), like Germany where the rate of vaccination (Vaccination is a process of introducing an external agent (the …) is slightly below 70%. This country announced, last Thursday, restrictions to the unvaccinated in their access to public places.

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In addition, there is the possibility that the immunity induced by infection or by the vaccine may decline with the time (Time is a concept developed by humans to understand …).

The variant variable

In one year, Sarah Zhang recalls, between the Alpha and Delta variants, the virus (A virus is a biological entity that requires a host cell, which it uses …) doubled its rate of contagion (Contagion is the transmission of disease directly or indirectly.). This “evolution” seems to have slowed down the latter. month (The month (from the Latin mensis “month”, and formerly to the plural. “Menstruation”) is a period of time …), without knowing if it can be attributed to vaccination. But it remains a risk nonetheless: a variant which, through the mutations that the virus continues to undergo, would find the “recipe” to escape our immunity, would have an immense playing field at its disposal. It wouldn’t bring us back to square one, because our immune system (The immune system of an organism is a coordinated set of elements of …) would not be entirely helpless in the face of this close cousin of a virus that he already knows; but statistically, it would cause more re-infections or new infections.

The human factor

Some of the above will also depend on our behaviors this winter (Winter is one of the four seasons of temperate zones.). “The coronavirus does not jump on planes, it does traverse (A sleeper is a fundamental element of the railway. It is a part laid across …) no borders or does not go to end-of-year partiesyear (A year is a unit of time expressing the duration between two occurrences of a related event …)Zhang writes. We do. ”And that’s why the human factor has always been, in epidemiology, part of theequation (In mathematics, an equation is an equality that links different quantities, usually …) the most difficult to predict.

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That play (The cheek is the part of the face that covers the oral cavity, closed by the …) in the right sense (SENS (Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence) is a scientific project which aims …) as in the wrong way: if the Back to School (Back to school is the time of the school year when students …) did not cause the news vague (A wave is an oscillatory movement of the surface of an ocean, sea or lake. The …) that we feared, it is probably because we have become more careful, with our masks and our social distancing. There were also areas in the United States that were still very resistant to vaccination this summer, but where the vaccine rate increased at the start of the year.fall (Autumn is one of the four seasons of temperate zones. It is between summer and …). In Quebec, a warmer fall played in favor of the human factor: meetings outside were less risky. The arrival of winter will be the real test.

To read

Sarah Zhang , “The Pandemic’s Next (NeXT Computer, Inc (now NeXT Software, Inc) was a computer company …) Turn Hinges on Three Unknowns”, The Atlantic, November 18.

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