Investors are eagerly awaiting the reporting season

Et was the last full week of the stock market for investors with Donald Trump as American President. Joe Biden will take over the office next week. The stock exchange trades the future, however, and it has long been priced in for the Democrat to move into the White House. The markets are therefore not impressed by the fact that the assumption of office is getting closer.

Antonia Mannweiler

The US $ 1.9 trillion stimulus package announced by Biden on Thursday also caused little cheer on Wall Street. After all, the $ 2 trillion sum had been around for a while. After the record rally last week, the stock exchange has been on hold for the past few days. On a weekly basis, the major American indices are slightly in the red.

By contrast, market participants are more excited about the upcoming reporting season in America. If the results of the corporations are better than expected by analysts, this could provide new momentum in the markets. The big American banks Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are the prelude to this.

In Europe, too, there is a minus in front of many large indices at the end of the week, as the pandemic is worsening in many regions. While the stock exchanges celebrated the successes of the vaccine manufacturers and an abrupt end to the corona crisis early on, the realization is gradually gaining ground that the pandemic will probably rage for longer than hoped – with deeper cuts for the economy. The leading indices in Great Britain, France and Spain fell by up to 1.8 percent during the week.


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In Germany, the Dax could not defend the record high of 14,000 points, which it reached for the first time last week, until the end of this week. In the late afternoon, the leading German index was down 1.2 percent at 13,817 points. And the outlook remains bleak. A meeting between Chancellor Angela Merkel and the country leaders has been brought forward to next Tuesday. Stricter measures to contain the crisis are expected.


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Market participants have mixed feelings about China. Positive export figures from the People’s Republic boosted the share prices of German car manufacturers in particular this week. At times, Volkswagen stocks increased by up to 4 percent. At the same time, one of the largest corona outbreaks in months occurred in the Chinese province of Hebei. A second wave could also further dampen sentiment in the domestic markets.

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Course fireworks until the last minute

Dhe newcomer to the stock exchange Siemens Energy has made a breathtaking final spurt in the last days of December. The listing of the share closed on the last trading day of 2020 at a high. The energy technology company’s share price has risen by 36 percent since the note was taken – that’s more than a conciliatory end to the year for a high-deficit company. New investors can cheer just as much as Siemens shareholders who have kept their energy stocks booked into the depot on September 28th. And the Siemens group, which carried out the largest German IPO in 2020 with the largest spin-off to date, can rejoice as the main shareholder with considerable price gains.

Rudiger Koehn

On the last trading day, it went up until the last minute, even if the closing price of 30 euros (plus 0.33 percent) was below the daily high. This means that the titles have risen by 16 percent since December 21st alone. This gives the first explanation for the bull market: On that day, the newcomer to the M-Dax rose to join his “sister” Siemens Healthineers, the medical technology division of the parent company. Unlike Energy, this went public in March 2018 via a public offer (IPO) and just as quickly conquered the mean value index.

The manufacturer of gas turbines, equipment for the oil industry and wind turbines was appointed M-Dax member at the beginning of December, which market participants already discounted in November and so they began to buy. The soaring price of the past trading days is not only due to the year-end rally. Because index funds that track the M-Dax are likely to have covered up by the end of the month; recently the world’s largest wealth manager, the American Blackrock, with more than 3 percent.

SIEMENS ENERGY AG NA ON


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Gradually, trading in the stocks switches to normal operations. So far, market activity has been shaped by the necessary re-formation in the shareholder structure, which on the day of the spin-off was a reflection of Siemens’ ownership structure. Index-oriented funds that only track Dax stocks had to sell. A third of the almost 727 million Energy shares are likely to have changed hands in this way. According to the company, this process is largely complete. The shareholder structure is on a more stable foundation: Siemens is the largest shareholder with 35.1 percent, 9.9 percent is held by the independent Siemens Pension Trust; 33 percent are with institutional investors, 14 percent with private investors; the rest has not yet been identified.

The way for the expected rise to the Dax in autumn 2021 with 40 members is paved. With a market value of 22 billion euros and the high free float of 55 percent, important hurdles have been overcome. The deficits in the inadequate trading volume will be eliminated by then – especially if Siemens places another tranche, which, according to its own announcement, should happen 12 to 18 months after the initial listing. Should the course plateau hold or be raised, this is possible before the summer break. The main shareholder is happy about the strong increase in the value of his stake anyway. A sale of 10 percent to investors outside the stock exchange would bring in more than 2 billion euros.

That looked different at the stock exchange premiere. The first price of 22.01 euros left deep disappointment. The market value of 16 billion euros was unflattering for a company with 27.5 billion euros in sales, an order backlog of 79 billion euros and 93,000 employees, but a net loss of 1.8 billion euros.

Analysts actually saw a valuation then that has been achieved today. Another driver is the wondrous euphoria for the German-Spanish wind turbine manufacturer Siemens Gamesa, in which Energy holds 67 percent. In one year, its rate has more than doubled. The package held by Energy is worth 15 billion euros and covers 70 percent of its own market capitalization. Gamesa, of all things, is mainly responsible for the horrific losses of the majority shareholder. The hope of a new management alone cannot explain Gamesa’s miracle. Rather, rumors about a compensation offer to the free float were fueled. But that is currently out of the question for Energy boss Christian Bruch. Recently, speculation was spread that the Germans could sell Gamesa, Bruch denied. The markets didn’t care: Siemens Gamesa’s course continues to fly high – and with it Siemens Energy is also gaining altitude.

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Dax ends turbulent year below record high

Dhe Dax fell slightly in shortened trading on Wednesday at the end of a turbulent year on the stock market. The German standard value index closed on Wednesday in a quiet business 0.3 percent lower with 13,718.78 points. On Monday the index had just reached a new high, but then already weakened a little on Tuesday. The small cap indices MDax and S-Dax also closed on Wednesday below the highs they reached on Tuesday.

The highs, however, mislead about the actual development on the stock market. Since the Dax indices, as so-called performance indices, simulate a reinvestment of dividends, they, in contrast to all other common stock indices internationally, include distributions in the prices.

The FAZ index, which with 100 values ​​broadly replicates the German stock market, which does not do this, on the other hand, at 2431.67 points, is not only below its annual high from February of 2515 points, but also below its all-time high from January 2018 of 2567 points . The Dax price index is also below its annual high and the 2018 all-time high at 5,935.22 points.

Measured at the end of 2019 of 13,249.01 points, the Dax (performance index) posted an annual plus of 3.5 percent, the M-Dax of 8.8 and the S-Dax of 18 percent, despite the corona crash in the meantime. The FAZ index, on the other hand, posted a minus of 0.3 percent, the Dax price index a plus of 0.4 percent.

The latest price gains are attributed to improved sentiment due to the Brexit agreement concluded at the last second and the adoption of the American economic stimulus package, as well as expectations of normalization thanks to vaccines against the coronavirus. However, since all these factors have long been priced in, thin trade and the self-fulfilling prophecy of a good year-end business are not to be neglected as causes. Anyone who trades stocks now is acting out of conviction.

In 2020, like everywhere else, the “corona pandemic” also shaped the stock market year. The sharp price losses at the beginning of the year began on Rose Monday, February 24th. The steep descent did not end until a good three weeks later, on March 16, at 8255 points.

Delivery Hero shares had the best performance over the year, with a gain of around 80 percent in the Dax. The delivery service is considered to have benefited from the crisis, and the upcoming inclusion in the Dax gave the share price a boost.

The biggest losers were Bayer with a loss of around a third. The share price even fell below the low of the Corona crisis in October. The pharmaceutical and agrochemical company was unable to fully settle the legal dispute over alleged cancer risks of weed killers containing glyphosate. In addition, CEO Werner Baumann had to lower the outlook for the year because of the corona crisis, which is partly affecting the pharmaceutical business, as hospitals refrained from urgently needed treatments. Baumann also prepared investors for massive headwinds in the agricultural business.

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The best newcomers to Europe’s stock market heaven

Holy Hall: View of the Madrid Stock Exchange building

European young companies are honored annually. Among the winners this time was a value from Deutsche Börse – alongside a management consultancy from Spain, a pharmacist from Northern Ireland and a Finnish food manufacturer. Here are the portraits of five companies.

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Review of the stock market year and outlook

Dhe stock market year 2020 is on the home straight. A handful of trading days left and the pandemic year is history. It was marked by one of the sharpest market downturns in recent years: in March, prices lost more than 30 percent, only to then make up for the losses in an equally rapid rally. By the way, investors in Germany had to deal with the Wirecard bankruptcy and one of the biggest balance sheet scandals in recent financial history. In the end, it can be said: This year has certainly been nerve-racking. But will 2021 really be more relaxed?

Many people in Germany have big plans for the coming year, especially when it comes to finances, as a recent survey by JP Morgan Asset Management found among 1,000 women and men. An astonishing result of this survey is: Around a third of the respondents are initially satisfied with their own current financial situation. Meanwhile, 31 percent also want to spend less money in the new year by reducing consumption or saving with cheaper comparative offers, for example on electricity or mobile communications.

The stock exchange will remain taboo for many in 2021

Many Germans also want to do something about their investments in the coming year. Here you can tell from the survey that we are in Germany: Despite the low interest rates due to the monetary and fiscal policy measures of the central banks, around one in five respondents still want to save money in their savings account, at 20 percent.

On the other hand, an investment in stocks and the like is still not as strong in the running. Only 18 percent said they wanted to conclude a fund or securities savings plan that enables regular investments even with small contributions. Only 15 percent of those surveyed plan to invest money in the stock market in the new year. Those who, on the other hand, were already active on the stock exchange this year expect a stronger rise in 2021, especially from the Dax. The optimists are counting on the corona crisis to subside at an early stage and thus on corporate profits to pick up again.

Experts expect corporate profits to rise

For Union Investment’s portfolio board member, Jens Wilhelm, 2021 will be a year of opportunities in the hope of expiring corona restrictions. Record series on the New York stock exchanges give a foretaste of what people in Germany may hope for from the Dax in 2021. Union Investment expert Wilhelm expects global corporate profits to increase by up to 30 percent year-on-year in 2021, while he gives stocks up to 10 percent room for improvement.

Quite a few experts are betting on American stocks in the 2021 stock market year, even if they are often classified as overvalued on the basis of the price-earnings ratio (P / E). “Taking into account the free cash flow, the picture looks friendlier, so that selection is the key to success here too,” says Knut Gezelius, portfolio manager at the Skagen fund boutique.

American small caps interesting

For the experts at Royce Investment Partners, small American stock corporations (“small caps”) will continue to be an interesting investment option in the coming year. Small company stocks have often been the biggest beneficiaries of recessions in the past. “We see no reason why this should be any different in the current market environment,” says Francis Gannon of Royce Investment. He refers to the positive development of the small-cap Russell 2000 index, which achieved the best development in its history in November with 18.4 percent.

Our author Christoph Scherbaum is a stock exchange specialist and works as a financial journalist from Ludwigsburg.


Our author Christoph Scherbaum is a stock exchange specialist and works as a financial journalist from Ludwigsburg.
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Image: Christoph Scherbaum

“The positive development of small caps in the United States is not solely due to a technical reaction in the market, but also to figures from the companies themselves,” said Gannon, which is underpinned by the robust earnings of smaller companies in the third quarter. Looking ahead to the months ahead, Gannon and his colleagues expect the trend towards smaller company stocks to continue. “A weaker dollar in particular should ensure that the framework conditions for exports by smaller companies from the United States are even better than they already are,” said Gannon.

Breakthrough for sustainability?

The aforementioned JP Morgan Asset Management survey brought up another topic: According to this, 14 percent are interested in sustainable investments and not only want to increase their money, but also do something good with it at the same time. This trend may sound “typically German” at first, but the topic is also playing a growing role in the United States.

Of the around 7.2 trillion dollars that are now invested in ESG financial products that take environmental aspects (Environment), social components (Social) and the quality of corporate management (Governance) into account, 80 percent of these investments have so far been made up of 80 percent Europe. The growth is enormous: the volume in 2020 is more than twice as large as in 2019.

Dirk Steffen, Head of Capital Market Strategy at Deutsche Bank, expects the topic to become increasingly relevant in America too. “With comparable performance, ESG investments have proven to be less volatile during the coronavirus crisis. In addition, the fight against climate change, social inequality and discrimination should be more resolute under President Joe Biden, ”said Steffen.

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That certain tingling in the share portfolio

DThe plan was quite simple at the beginning: A (partial) lockdown or lockdown “light” should be imposed in order to bring the corona infection numbers down so far that at least a reasonably normal Christmas and New Year’s Eve would be possible. As we now know, nothing came of this project. Instead, a Germany-wide, significantly tightened lockdown has been in place since December 16. At Christmas, the regulations on meeting restrictions are relaxed a little, while New Year’s Eve falls into the water, so to speak. Not good news for companies whose main business revolves around the holidays. Schloss Wachenheim AG is one of them.

Wachenheim Castle is one of the most important producers of sparkling wine and semi-sparkling wine in the whole world. Other product ranges of the group of companies are wine, dealcoholized sparklings and wines, vermouth, cider, spirits and other beverages containing wine. The company can only be described as a corona profiteer to a limited extent – if an investor is under the assumption that people are content with more alcohol out of pandemic frustration. That’s not the case.

Solid business figures despite Corona

Schloss Wachenheim AG recorded solid sales growth in the 2019/20 financial year (end of June), even if there were major differences between the individual regions. The home business, for example, compensated for the unsatisfactory business in France. In the end, the group of companies achieved sales totaling EUR 338.2 million and thus at the level of the previous year (EUR 337.2 million). At 13.0 million euros, the consolidated annual surplus was around 19 percent below the level of the previous financial year (16.0 million euros).

Our author Christoph Scherbaum is a stock exchange specialist and works as a financial journalist from Ludwigsburg


Our author Christoph Scherbaum is a stock exchange specialist and works as a financial journalist from Ludwigsburg
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Image: Christoph Scherbaum

The current financial year is unlikely to be any less exciting than the previous one. In the first quarter, which ended at the end of September, a positive development in business in Germany was able to offset the corona-related weaknesses in France and other important markets. While sales of around 51 million bottles were roughly on a par with the previous year, sales even climbed slightly by 2.6 percent to 82.1 million euros. On the earnings side, Schloss Wachenheim benefited from the fact that advertising expenditure fell year-on-year.

In the second quarter (end of December), however, travel restrictions, event bans, contact restrictions, restrictions on offers from retailers and services through to curfews had a negative impact. This was particularly evident among customers in the hotel and catering industry. These are primarily affected by the current closure orders, so that the boardroom of Schloss Wachenheim AG expects noticeable declines in this area in the second quarter of 2020/21. But the corona crisis is also expected to have dampening effects for the rest of the current financial year.

Nevertheless, Schloss Wachenheim, and thus also its shareholders, can hope for a few positive corona effects: On the one hand, it is very easy to order sparkling wine and wine online. In addition, the corona vaccination should also start soon in this country. This ensures the prospect of overcoming COVID-19 and a return to normality, in which festivals such as Easter 2021 can be celebrated again in the future.

Exciting chart technique

The majority of analysts are currently in a positive mood for the sparkling wine share. Price targets of 19 euros and higher are given. The share itself can currently be classified as exciting from the point of view of chart technology: After the share had reached a 20-year high at 22.88 euros in November 2017, it plummeted to prices of 10.70 euros by March of this year. At its peak, the course lost more than 50 percent. This was followed by a catch-up movement to the EUR 16 mark by autumn and then another setback to EUR 14.10 at times by mid-December. The Schloss Wachenheim share is currently trading around the 200-day line and is about to make a decision:

SCHLOSS WACHENHEIM AG ON


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To the detailed view

If the 200-day line is recaptured, prices above EUR 16 are possible again. If, on the other hand, the downward trend of the past few weeks continues, the next correction targets will be around the 12 euro mark and the March low of 10.70 could also come into focus again.

Favorable valuation and continuous dividend

Ultimately, however, the chart technique is only one factor among many that speaks for a position in the portfolio for a long-term investor. The share is currently valued at a price-earnings ratio of just over 13 for 2021. At first glance, this appears to be cheap – also against the background that, in the further course of the financial year, Schloss Wachenheim is likely to increase operationally profitability again, according to various analysis houses.

The traditional company is also a continuous dividend payer. A distribution of 0.40 euros per share is also planned for the weaker past financial year. This corresponds to a decrease of 20 percent compared to the previous year – but at least there should be a distribution. This is anything but natural for a business year influenced by corona. The share of Schloss Wachenheim is therefore something for small cap fans who calmly want to have a long-term share position in their portfolio that has had an average annual price development of 5.5 percent over the past ten years.

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Airbnb will go public, but are you optimistic?

As of September 2020, Airbnb had 150 million registered users, and its services are enjoyed by more than 400 million guests around the world.

In 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the company’s valuation fell to $ 18 billion and it was forced to cut operating costs, laying off many of its more than 6,000 employees, worldwide. However, in its next public outing, the company could reach a valuation of 42,000 million dollars, by maintaining that share price.

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky has said on several occasions that the company was rumored to be going public that: “when the market is ready for Airbnb, Airbnb will go public,” but in a year like 2020, where the tourism market is one of the hardest hit, some analysts.

“2020 was a challenging year for the company, the gross value of the bookings plummeted more than 100% in March and April, compared to the previous year, which means that the gross bookings were negative as the cancellations exceeded the reserves for both months, ”Richter said.

While AirDNA, a company that tracks the short-term rental industry, said occupancy rates for short-term rentals had recovered more quickly than those for hotels, so the company can be welcomed in the bag.

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Water is listed on Wall Street … Is a future like Mad Max looming?

Mexico City /

The water shortage It has been one of the biggest warnings that the scientific community has made worldwide, the problem is that the measures of the different governments are insufficient to reverse such a tragedy, that is why the future in which said liquid begins to be more expensive is accelerated to the point that now has already started trading on the Wall Street Stock Exchange, a situation that Internet users associated with the beginning of an apocalypse that will lead to a panorama similar to the movies of Mad Max.

To the surprise of millions of people, the basis of life on Earth is now listed on the stock market, which means that the price will fluctuate like oil or gold, CME Group reported. One of the first impacts occurred in California where the price doubled in the last year, which could be used as a reference for the rest of the world.

If this trend continues, some products could also increase in price, such as the basic basket; Faced with such a panorama, there are those who foresee that the next wars could occur due to the lack of water and that is why they saw a similar picture with the Mad Max franchise, where it is portrayed what a world would be like without said liquid.

The countries that most use water are the United States and ChinaIn addition, the United Nations calculated that 2,000 million people live in areas with problems of access to water, as if that were not enough, it predicts that in the next decade the shortage could affect three-quarters of the planet.

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Porvenir strengthens its actions for the quality of life and well-being of the elderly

Photo: AFP Porvenir

The Porvenir Pension and Unemployment Fund (AFP), in its mission to accompany Colombians at every stage of their life, especially the elderly, carried out a study in alliance with the Raddar firm, with the aim of knowing their general situation , especially their current living conditions as a result of the situation that brought on the Covid-19 pandemic.

This is key if one takes into account that Colombia, according to the most recent Dane census, has a population of more than 4.03 million adults over 59 years of age, corresponding to 9.14% of the country’s population.

Thus, the older adult population is a significant proportion and therefore deserves special attention from both the public sector and private companies with actions focused on their well-being.

To carry out this study, men and women from the main cities of the country (Bogotá, Medellín, Barranquilla, Cali and Bucaramanga) over 65 years of age were taken into account, divided into two groups: Pensioners and non-pensioners.

“As the leading pension and severance fund in Colombia, we have the responsibility of monitoring the pulse of the elderly in the country. To know their expectations, concerns, priorities in each context. Listening to them allows us to understand them. For this reason, we carried out this study, based on what interests us most: the country’s elderly people, ”said Miguel Largacha, president of Porvenir.

Main findings of the study

While 72% of the men surveyed use their time in leisure activities (such as watching television, being with the family, doing sports or reading), 45% of the women are dedicated to housework or work.

The survey revealed that for the elderly, physical health and family prevail over work, emotional health and entertainment.

The survey also reveals 51% of the older adults surveyed are optimistic about their health conditions.

Entertainment is an important item within your expenses, above the payment of credit cards, education, installments of home loans or rent.

In terms of income, 28% of surveyed older adults who do not have a pension noted that their main source of income comes from their own businesses; 23% receive financial aid from their children; 21% depend on the salary of the current job and 17% receive rental resources.

Older adults have felt accompanied in the situation by covid-19

With the declaration of preventive isolation, decreed by the National Government for those over 70, the survey revealed that, unlike the collective imagination, loneliness has not been a problem for this population. 87% of respondents They affirmed that their relatives have been the main source of company in this pandemic.

Faced with this situation, people who do not have a pension have resorted to financial aid (17%) and mostly to aid such as markets (21%). Only 2% of those surveyed say they have received psychological support.

In the labor field, the survey reveals that 69% of older adults do not feel suitable to resume their working life in the current situation, arguing that they feel vulnerable to the contagion of covid-19.

Behavior in cities

Bogota: only 33% of adults over 65 would be willing to work and 27% feel satisfied with their health conditions.

Medellin: Medellín’s older adults are the most satisfied with their health conditions of the five cities surveyed (44%).

Barranquilla: older adults show less aptitude and real intention to return to their jobs than that observed in other cities (20%).

Cali: older adults are among the least satisfied with their current lifestyle (13%), which may explain their high willingness to return to work (40%). It is in this city where a large part of older adults with a real disposition and intention to return to their jobs is concentrated.

Bucaramanga: Older adults in this city are among the most critical of their current living conditions (13%) and health (25%), and although they show little willingness to work (24%), many would be willing to do so (45%), which may be a reflection of your unmet needs.

Actions designed for the welfare of the elderly

In addition to this study that helps to diagnose their reality and thinking about the well-being of this population, the AFP Porvenir has the community of the pensioner Enjoying your Future, where pensioners have a wide range of services and training, entrepreneurship and leisure activities. To date, nearly 2,000 pensioners from all over the country have participated in talks on awareness, well-being, physical conditioning, management of social networks, courses on healthy baking and urban agriculture.

Another initiative for the benefit of this population was the alliance that the AFP made in 2019 with the Entrepreneurship Center of the Universidad del Rosario to launch the Entrepreneurship program Enjoying your Future, an initiative aimed at pensioners and people with a return of balances, to provide them with academic and practical tools that would allow them to materialize a business idea. Within the framework of this course, 51 pensioners graduated; In total, 11 business ideas were generated, of which Porvenir supported the best three.

Today, AFP Porvenir becomes the first pension fund to connect the country’s elderly population in a 100% digital collective collaboration platform that provides them with emotional well-being through knowledge, on health, entertainment and training issues. . This platform has different channels in which, with the help of influencers and experts, the pensioner community grows.

It also launched Challenge 21, a window of experiences with 21 speakers who give talks to encourage and inspire pensioners in entrepreneurship, in developing soft skills, in leadership, in managing uncertain times.

“Beyond the pension benefits that we provide and the support that we offer to our members who reach their retirement age, we seek to positively affect their quality of life. If we understand their expectations, interests and preferences, we strengthen our communication with our older adults, managing to strengthen strategies for their well-being, at the end of the day we just want them to have the quality of life they deserve, ”added Largacha.

“Our relationship is then one of facilitators of ideas. Today more than 93,000 pensioners who chose us as their pension fund, have the peace of mind of receiving their allowance in a timely manner, we know that by creating strategies that generate value in their daily lives, we exponentially increase their quality of life. It is not enough to have a ‘dignified old age’. We want our affiliates and the elderly in the country to have a full adulthood ”, concluded the president of Porvenir.

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