Aircraft construction: Shortly after the stock market closed, Airbus sent an unpleasant message

economy Aircraft construction

Shortly after the stock market closed, Airbus sent an unpleasant message

| Reading time: 3 minutes

Gerhard Hegmann

Airbus production Airbus production

The fuselage of an Airbus of the A320 family is in the final assembly hall at the Airbus plant in Hamburg-Finkenwerder

Source: dpa / Sven Hoppe

Airbus is dampening hopes for a quick turnaround in the aircraft industry: The production expansion will remain very low for a long time. Lufthansa boss Spohr is still hoping that air traffic will pick up in the summer – despite all the warning signs.

BAirbus has long performed better than Boeing in the worst crisis in the aircraft industry. Europe’s aircraft manufacturer produced by far more aircraft in 2020 and brought in more orders than the US competition. Airbus slowed down the production rate, but CEO Guillaume Faury announced an expansion for the second half of the year. But the ramp-up is weaker “as a reaction to the market environment”. “Production rates will remain low for longer,” admitted the aircraft manufacturer and sent the message after the market closed.

Instead of increasing the monthly production rate of the best-selling A320 Family from the current 40 to 47 in July, there is only a slight increase. On 43 planes per month in the third quarter and 45 in the fourth quarter. In mathematical terms, that’s almost 20 fewer aircraft in the second half of the year compared to the more optimistic variant. In addition, Airbus announced that a possible expansion of production for the A350 wide-body aircraft is also being postponed.

Both messages signal that great optimism is not appropriate. However, Airbus continues to assume that the market for commercial aircraft will again reach the level before the corona pandemic between 2023 and 2025. Obviously now, but more in the year 2025.

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Airbus boss Faury had recently spoken of new uncertainties, for example due to the mutated corona virus and possible restrictions in the important Asian market. In addition, as an Airbus customer, the airline industry is burdening the new travel restrictions for passengers. Just how much air traffic has collapsed is shown by a few figures. On January 20, the number of flights in Europe was a good 9,100, just 36 percent of the previous year. There is great uncertainty as to which flights are possible, how quickly there will be vaccinations and what the quarantine regulations look like, according to a video conference of the European flight safety organization Eurocontrol.

Lufthansa boss does not want to see a disaster scenario

Nevertheless, Lufthansa boss Carsten Spohr did not draw a disaster scenario at the event. He is convinced that the market will recover in 2021. It is true that less than 20 percent of Lufthansa’s capacities are in use in the first quarter. At some point between the second and third quarter, however, the anti-corona vaccinations and experience with tests would have a positive effect.

He therefore assumes a “significant recovery in summer”. In addition, Lufthansa managed to reduce costs significantly. The airline will probably not need the entire state credit line of nine billion euros. So far, only three billion euros in aid have been used. However, Lufthansa has also reduced the number of new aircraft, which in turn is reflected above all at Airbus.

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The now subdued outlook at Airbus is also remarkable with a view to the industry as a whole. The recently heavily reduced production level was already seen as a kind of auxiliary program for the supplier industry. Industry representatives from German medium-sized companies recently expressed their gratitude to Airbus that the aircraft manufacturer did not temporarily stop production completely and that there was no break in logistics. In addition, state aid programs, such as short-time work benefits, have helped. Just two days ago, suppliers said they were satisfied if things would pick up again from July – a hope that is now likely to be a little weaker.


Why restarting aviation is so difficult

Lufthansa Boeing 747 parked in Frankfurt

Many long-haul jets have been on the ground for months. Before they can take off again, they must be examined intensively for possible damage to the stand.

(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt Summer should finally fix it. The global aviation industry, more or less on the ground for about a year due to the coronavirus, is relying on a strong recovery in demand. Close tests and mass vaccinations will finally put the Covid 19 pandemic in its place, so the hope is.

The chances of this are actually good, even if it will be a long time before air transport reaches pre-crisis levels. But people want to travel, want to get out. That was clearly shown by the rush to the German ski areas around the holidays.

For companies in the industry, especially the airlines, the restart means a lot of work without empirical values. The virus and the related forced break have created a situation like never before.


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Ranking in the Corona year 2020: The safest airlines in the world

Dhe disturbing images of the rescue work after the plane crash off the coast of Java give an old question new topicality right at the beginning of the year: Which airline is how safe?

An assessment is difficult – even if portals all over the world are trying to find an answer. In the world of commercial aviation, it will be particularly difficult for the exceptional year 2020. Because thanks to the global corona restrictions, only a few flights were made – and the overall performance of an airline is an important criterion for drawing conclusions about its long-term security situation.

“This year the airlines had fewer opportunities to fly many passenger kilometers – so their“ old ”accidents are weighted more heavily than usual,” says “Aero International” editor-in-chief Thomas Borchert.

Flights are generally riskier in Indonesia

Against this background, the latest hit parade of the 100 safest airlines in the world, created by the Hamburg Aircraft Accident Bureau Jet Airliner Crash Data Evaluation Center (JACDEC), is more of a long-term evaluation than a snapshot. The two top positions are shared again this time the golf airlines Emirates (number one) and Etihad Airways with their enormous flight performance.

The third place Scoot – a subsidiary of Singapore Airlines merged with Tigerair (21st place) – proves once again that low-cost airlines don’t have to be worse than the top dogs when it comes to flight safety. “Scoot Tigerair, which has been on the road for 17 years, has not yet recorded a single total loss in flight operations, and the number of serious incidents was just four,” says JACDEC director Jan-Arwed Richter.

In this respect, hasty conclusions also fall short of the Indonesian low-cost airline Sriwijaya Air, which was founded in 2003 – its Boeing 737-500 aircraft do not have to be inferior to those of other airlines. The airline, named after the former Buddhist kingdom on Sumatra, is not listed in the annual safety ranking of the flight safety office JACDEC, although it is a bigger player in the country’s competitive domestic flight market. According to JACDEC, there were five total losses for the airline, four of them with passengers on board – only the last one was killed.

Flight recorder of the crashed passenger plane located

After the sudden disappearance of an Indonesian passenger plane, there is now a sad certainty about its fate. Helpers tracked down the flight recorder of the crashed aircraft. The search for survivors and wreckage continues.

Source: WELT / Perdita Heise

“Indonesia has always been a riskier area than other parts of the world: the plane is the only form of transport within the vast country where you don’t have to calculate days, but only hours,” explains Richter, who is also sensitive to tropical storms, torrential rains as well refers to a limited infrastructure as risk factors. Risky, hair-raising approaches are therefore often the order of the day.

“Every year we have incidents of passenger planes at provincial airports that regularly roll over the runway,” says the expert. Even if the state invests a lot of money in maintaining and expanding the airports, the situation remains risky: “The combination of weather, difficult topography and short runways, many of which can only be approached when visibility is good, represents a permanent safety risk.”

Lufthansa ends up in the midfield at JACDEC

The accident researchers at the JACDEC office have again placed the Spanish Air Europa in fourth place in their balance of the 100 safest airlines as the safest European airline, ahead of Finnair (5) and the Dutch companies KLM (6) and Transavia (7), Oman Air (8), the Taiwanese Eva Air (9) and the American Jetblue Airways (10). The German Lufthansa subsidiary Eurowings follows in 28th place. Swiss (54th place), Lufthansa (57) and Austrian Airlines (62) landed in the middle.

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But the rating – which can be influenced by individual events on commercial scheduled flights – only partially says something about the continued high level of security in the industry. The percentages of the airlines in the complex risk index are mostly very close together. The JACDEC study records the 100 lines with the highest traffic performance worldwide – and rewards airlines with years of accident-free flight operations.

The top 20 safest airlines in the world

The first 20 places on the list of the world’s safest airlines, which the Hamburg Aircraft Accident Bureau JACDEC compiled for the aviation magazine “Aero International”, are occupied as follows:

1. Emirates (United Arab Emirates / risk index 94.75 percent)

2. Etihad Airways (United Arab Emirates / 94.73 percent)

3. Scoot Tigerair (Singapore / 94.52 percent)

4. Air Europa (Spain / 94.45 percent)

5. Finnair (Finland / 93.14 percent)

6. KLM (Netherlands / 92.97 percent)

7. Transavia (Netherlands / 92.61 percent)

8. Oman Air (Oman / 92.31 percent)

9. Eva Air (Taiwan / 92.15 percent)

10. Jetblue Airways (USA / 91.90 percent)

11. Cathay Pacific Airways (Hong Kong / 91.51 percent)

12. Jetstar Airways (Australia / 91.50 percent)

13. Easyjet (UK / 91.12 percent)

14. (UK / 90.99 percent)

15. Norwegian Air Shuttle (Norway / 90.82 percent)

Aer Lingus (Ireland / 90.71%)

17. Delta Air Lines (USA / 90.63 percent)

18. Westjet Airlines (Canada / 90.59 percent)

19. Vueling Airlines (Spain / 90.56 percent)

20. Capital Airlines (China / 90.55 percent)

The safety rankings of all 100 largest airlines can be read in the February issue of Aero International, which appears on January 14th.

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In 2021, the time for the company hunter strikes

Frankfurt skyline

Most business consultants and investment bankers expect a boom in new transactions involving private equity firms in the new year.

(Photo: AFP)

Frankfurt Private equity investors are sitting on around $ 750 billion worldwide, for which they are urgently looking for investment opportunities. In doing so, they are increasingly looking to Germany. Investment bankers and management consultants are therefore expecting a real boom in megadeals in 2021.

In the first half of the year, “two to three really large transactions in the double-digit billion range are possible in which several financial investors join forces for joint bids,” says Joachim Ringer, Co-Head of Investment Banking in Germany and Austria at Credit Suisse in Frankfurt.

In financial circles, the construction company Bilfinger, the steel trader Klöckner and the Adidas subsidiary Reebok are traded as possible takeover targets, the Handelsblatt learned. Activist hedge funds that were still holding back during the corona crisis apparently see opportunities. According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, more than 100 German companies are at great risk of being targeted by activist investors.

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Booking-Chef Fogel im Podcast Handelsblatt Disrupt

Düsseldorf With Corona, the travel platform and CEO Glenn Fogel got into a serious crisis in 2020: “At the terrible height of this crisis, we had negative sales, we refunded more than we received new orders,” he says at Handelsblatt Disrupt.

At the best times in summer, the company made just 50 percent of the previous year’s sales. In the fall it was said that a quarter of the workforce had to go: “I think it will take years – not just quarters – for the travel industry to return to the level of 2019,” says Fogel.

How does a company get out of such a phase? Compared to many others in the travel industry, is still in a lucky situation, says Fogel. However, the manager is worried about plans from Brussels: The new legislative initiatives of the EU Commission, which are intended to limit the power of large tech companies, could also hit his company seriously.

Some of his business customers certainly think this is justified. Isn’t it a sign of overwhelming power when a platform can forbid hotels from renting out their rooms for less on their own websites? In the podcast, Fogel defends this and explains why any other regulation would destroy his business model.

Multi-supervisory board member Simone Menne on the prospects for the industry

In the second interview, Handelsblatt editor-in-chief Sebastian Matthes and multi-supervisory board member and ex-Lufthansa finance director Simone Menne take a look at the prospects for the entire industry. How can the all-important digital transformation still succeed under these difficult circumstances?

Menne has already gone through many crises with companies, for example after the Germanwings crash in 2015 due to the suicide of a pilot. Above all, she knows: “If the employees are afraid and if the company management is afraid, then they are paralyzed.”

Do you have any questions, criticism or suggestions? Then join our Handelsblatt Disrupt LinkedIn group and write.

More: The previous episode of Handelsblatt Disrupt can be found here.


Why money alone is not enough

Lufthansa jet takes off in Vancouver

The largest European airline group has received billions in government aid because of the consequences of the pandemic.

(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt Politicians themselves formulated the claim. “The state appears here as a self-confident investor,” said Jörg Kukies, State Secretary in the Ministry of Finance and former investment banker at Goldman Sachs, in May 2020 with a view to the billion-dollar rescue of Lufthansa.

Half a year later, billions more have flowed into the ailing aviation industry and the pressure on politicians is growing. Just giving money is not enough, warns Peter Smeets, founder and CEO of the aviation-focused financing specialist 360AF: “The federal government is the owner of the whole. He is now in demand and has to develop a plan for how aviation should look in the future, ”he told Handelsblatt.

Through his work, Smeets knows exactly what is currently happening in the market and also knows the sensitivities in the capital market. He is looking at the situation from the perspective of investors, says the expert. Lufthansa currently has a business model that is “distressed”, ie in need. “To get out of this situation, you have to do strategic homework. As the largest single shareholder, the federal government will not be able to duck back here. He has to accompany the way. ”

Smeets is convinced that it will be difficult to get back the tax money invested without an overall concept for the industry: “Without this plan, without a clear definition of the framework conditions, you will not be able to convince investors to get involved here.” to get aviation going again. “I expressly include the airports here. Here too, private financing models must be considered, ”Smeets continued. After all, Frankfurt, the largest German airport, is still largely publicly owned, and Munich, number two, is even completely state-owned.

A few weeks ago, statements by Heinz Hermann Thiele confirm that investors are demanding more active intervention from the federal government. He holds a good twelve percent stake in Lufthansa and asked the federal government to play a more active role in the difficult discussions between trade unions and management and to mediate here.

Fight for tourists

According to Smeets, the current dispute between Lufthansa and Condor over feeder flights is further proof that the provision of financial aid alone is not enough. A few weeks ago, Lufthansa terminated a long-term cooperation with Condor, which regulated that the small holiday airline could buy Lufthansa seats at fixed prices for feeder flights from Lufthansa. In future, Lufthansa intends to fly to tourist destinations via its Ocean platform itself.

In addition to Lufthansa, Condor has also received help from the state because of the massive consequences of the pandemic. Both are now fighting for the same customers: tourists. In addition, the travel company Tui has received state aid, whose core business is also tourists and which, with Tuifly, also owns a holiday airline in Germany.

At Lufthansa, the federal government is already a shareholder through the aid, and indirectly at Condor through the KfW loans. At Tui, the federal government may join the travel group depending on the further development.

In spite of this tricky situation, it is not evident that politicians are taking on the subject of the aviation concept, criticizes Smeets. At the moment there is only a commitment in politics that aviation is an integral part of the business location: “In addition, the state has so far avoided the topic of aviation.”

In the opinion of Christophe Mostert, Managing Partner of the consulting firm M2P Consulting GmbH, this will not work: “If the state money is to be well invested, you have to have a plan for how the assets you now own can be further developed.”

Paderborn-Lippstadt Airport

The regional airport had to file for bankruptcy due to the pandemic.

(Photo: dpa)

The pressure to act is great, warns Mostert, and points to the enormous financial burdens of the aviation crisis on the state, which went far beyond state aid: “The aviation tax is largely canceled, the air traffic control has financial gaps which the owner, the federal government, has to close. The airports also need help. “

The state has to consider where in the aviation ecosystem it wants to act in the future as a regulator and where as a promoter, said the consultant. And gives examples. As a regulator, the state could help to support a consolidation of the tourist airlines, for example by paving the way for this in Brussels.

As a sponsor, on the other hand, the state can consider whether it does not want to take on more infrastructure costs in the future, suggests Mostert: “Airlines blackmail the airports with the fees and on the other hand the state holds on to the control fees, that doesn’t work. “

Mostert recommends the formation of an advisory committee for implementation: “The state is not the better entrepreneur. You have to pool the expertise that is available in Germany and, for example, found a council of experts to develop a concept for aviation. ”Mobility as a whole has to be rethought, including beyond the plane.

The expert calculates that distances of less than 1000 kilometers cannot be operated economically with an airplane. The airlines offer them for other reasons, for example as a feeder: “If you want to shift more traffic onto the rails, you need attractive rail connections. But I don’t see an attractive high-speed network, not in Germany and not across borders in Europe. “

All of this has to happen quickly because the pressure on the industry is great. “The basic model of all airlines was the ‘economies of scale’. Size was crucial, so you had economies of scale. They are no longer there, ”says Mostert, explaining the time pressure. No provider will have the usual synergies anymore. Fleets and utilization of jets dwindled. Every airline has to react to this with its business model and ask itself what it should look like in the future.

At the same time, the consultant expects new airlines to enter the business despite the difficult state of the industry. “Despite the current problems, the market offers opportunities for new providers. There are also considerations in this direction, of course with a very sharp business model, ”said Mostert. The advantage of a new provider is that they can select and narrow down their customer group very precisely and buy or rent exactly the right aircraft for this. “There are also gaps in Germany for such new airlines.”

More: Aviation threatens to miss its chance to reinvent itself


Airlines are optimistic for 2021


The aviation industry has had a disastrous year – and is hoping for a better year in 2021.

(Photo: Imago)

Frankfurt Confidence is back, at least a little. The heads of some airlines believe that the current crisis has reached its peak. The situation in the aviation industry, which is almost completely paralyzed by the corona pandemic, will look significantly better again in 2021, so the hope is.

“Since there was a concrete prospect of an effective vaccine, our bookings for next summer have tripled,” said Lufthansa boss Carsten Spohr, for example, recently to the magazine “Wirtschaftswoche”. He assumes that the group will fly around 50 percent of the capacity of a normal year again in 2021. Currently it is only around 20 percent. From 2022, the earnings figures should then be black again.

Spohr is not the only one who looks positively ahead. Ralf Teckentrup, the head of the holiday airline Condor, also expects strong growth for 2021. The flight schedule looks almost like it was before the pandemic, the manager said recently.

The demand will increase because corona vaccinations and inexpensive rapid tests would bring back trust. Feedback from the tour operators also showed that the demand for travel, including package tours, is high.

A similar picture emerges beyond Europe – even in Australia, where the government has responded to the virus with particularly tough measures and restrictions. “The booking figures show that there is demand again,” said Alan Joyce, the head of Qantas, a few weeks ago. Demand in Australia is still limited to the domestic market. But in the first half of 2021, Qantas is expected to return to profitability.

Investors love to hear such news – and feel vindicated. The shares of many airlines have risen significantly in the past few months.

Corona will burden balance sheets for years

The papers of Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and IAG (British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus) have gained a good 50 percent since their low point in early summer. The share of Wizz Air is even quoted almost back at the pre-crisis level, that of Ryanair even above.

But despite all the euphoria: The pandemic has left deep marks on the airlines’ balance sheets, which will be visible for years to come. The global airline organization IATA assumes that the airlines around the globe will fly in an added loss of 118 billion dollars (the equivalent of 97 billion euros) in the past year.

This year the loss will still be high at $ 39 billion. “The industry will continue to burn money at a monthly rate of seven billion dollars in the first half of 2021,” says the IATA forecast. The airlines’ debts have grown by a good 51 percent to an added $ 651 billion during the crisis.

The IATA experts write that the governments have so far supported the industry with financial aid amounting to 173 billion dollars. In view of the gloomy prospects for the coming months, that is not enough. More help from governments is needed, especially those that do not allow the mountain of debt to grow any further – for example, opening borders and easing travel restrictions.

There is of course always a good deal of lobbying hidden behind such statements. But in fact, there is no reason to fall into euphoria in the face of increasing booking demand. The IATA assumes that the European providers will fly in a loss of 11.9 billion dollars or the equivalent of around 9.8 billion euros in the year just started.


A Lufthansa, for example, which will fly perhaps 50 percent of normal capacity in 2021, is still working close to the limit of burning money. Only if CEO Spohr and his team manage to implement all the cost-cutting measures as planned, the group should be able to land at least a little above the zero line with this program in terms of cash flow.

Thomas Klühr, the boss of the Lufthansa subsidiary Swiss, put the situation in a nutshell recently in a conversation with the Swiss broadcaster SRF: “There are opportunities, but you have to prepare for it to take longer.” Klühr did not have to do anything gloss over, he left Swiss at the turn of the year.

Price war expected

In addition, the battle for the passengers who return to the jets will primarily be fought over prices. This, in turn, is at the expense of the margin and makes it difficult to repay the debts taken on in the pandemic.

Above all, Ryanair will fuel this price competition as it has so often in the past. Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary leaves no doubt about that. At an industry meeting of the European air traffic control organization Eurocontrol a few days ago, he explained that after the successful introduction of a vaccine, ticket demand could only be brought back to the pre-crisis level through low prices.

O’Leary therefore wants to expand the offer with low prices throughout Europe. He also counts on getting favorable terms from the airports. The chances for this should be good, because the airports are also suffering massively from the pandemic and are happy about every airline that sets up a few jets and offers connections.

The bottom line is that – if all goes well – there could be a recovery in air traffic in 2021. Perhaps this will even be stronger than many are currently predicting. But the price war that will flare up will at least partially offset the positive effects on the earnings side of many airlines.

More: Master plan: how air traffic should become climate neutral


What if you had bought Lufthansa shares 20 years ago?


Due to the pandemic, a large part of the fleet remains on the ground.

(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt “If I had bought this and that share earlier, then I would be filthy rich now” – some people have probably caught themselves with this thought.

But for which stocks is this really true? In our new series 20 to 20, we present you a share of an important company every day and ask you:

What would be your profit or loss if you had bought 20 stocks 20 years ago and sold them now. Have fun!


Lufthansa share: External crises cause fluctuations

It has never been really expensive for investors to acquire a stake in Lufthansa. At the beginning of December 2000, the paper cost around 24 euros. So anyone who bought 20 shares at the time only had to shell out 480 euros for it – and should ideally be patient and indulgent.

Because the share is exposed to external influences for better or for worse – especially severe crises. The current pandemic has massively pushed the course down, after all, for fear of an introduced infection, it is hardly possible to fly. And so the 480 euros have now shrunk to a modest 200 euros.

Such a course comparison is a bit unfair in times of the worst aviation crisis. After all, the investors at the “Hansa” have had good times. At the end of December 2017, for example, the share reached a new high at a good 30 euros (20 shares = 600 euros).

The reason: The rival Air Berlin went bankrupt in late summer of the year, Lufthansa wanted to secure large parts of the company. But the prospect of strong growth was short-lived. The cartel watchdogs in Brussels only allowed a takeover of smaller parts of the rival, the price fell again. Experienced aviation investors are familiar with the tendency of the Lufthansa share to fluctuate significantly, as our graphic shows.

For example, the terrorist attacks in the USA on September 11, 2001 temporarily paralyzed air traffic, in November 2002 the novel lung disease Sars broke out, and after an upward phase the financial crisis that began in October 2007 followed again with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 was accelerated.

If you want to make a profit with Lufthansa’s papers, you should act very quickly. As soon as the investment is somewhat positive, it could make sense to sell. The next crisis is sure to come and with it the opportunity to get back into the business.

The resolution:


Even more stocks in a 20-year comparison:


Returns are at their lowest point

Lufthansa logo

The airline hardly makes any money if travel is prevented.

(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt In the US, corporate bond yields with good credit ratings were 1.8 percent, lower than ever before. Due to the high prices, the papers hardly offer any returns. In real terms, i.e. after deducting inflation, which is 1.5 percent in the USA, the return is currently zero. For the coming years, however, even higher inflation rates of over two percent are expected.

In Europe the rates are currently even lower. Large companies such as Volkswagen can therefore also get into debt for well under one percent in the long term.

However, inflation here is currently at zero, and expectations for the coming years are only slightly above one percent. But the bottom line is that nothing remains. With corporate bonds, returns are currently hard to come by.

Most of all, however, many investors are looking for security when it comes to interest-bearing securities, which they currently lack. A program at European level therefore caused a sensation to secure the papers of companies with state guarantees and thus return security to investors.

The main aim was to support corporations whose creditworthiness collapsed in the wake of the corona crisis. A new study by LBBW on this topic names Lufthansa and Tui as examples. Both of them hardly make any money if travel is prevented. The guarantor is the so-called economic stabilization fund, which is why we also speak of WSF guarantees.

Ten percent damage remains

As the study makes clear, these bonds are not fully protected. In the event of a default, the investor only gets 90 percent of what he lacks in repayment and interest.

LBBW gives an example: in the event of bankruptcy with a repayment of 30 percent of the bond, the WSF takes over 90 percent of the remaining 70 percent, so that the investor is left with damage for ten percent of the failure, i.e. seven percent of his investment.

The program, with a total budget of 400 billion euros, caused quite a stir when it was announced. Guaranteed corporate bonds seemed to create a separate, interesting category of securities.

LBBW itself does not, however, give the area any rosy prospects. Firstly because, contrary to original expectations, only 90 percent is guaranteed instead of 100 percent. It has also been shown that, despite the corona crisis in the current year, the corporations had no problems raising money on the bond market if they had sufficient creditworthiness.

The risk premiums on returns have fallen back to almost pre-crisis levels, thanks in part to support from the European Central Bank.

More: What the state is doing wrong with billions in aid for Tui