Economic policy

How prices could develop in the future

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The ECB in Frankfurt

The money supply controlled by the central banks has a decisive influence on inflation. How exactly the connection is is controversial.

(Photo: Marc-Steffen Unger)

Berlin The old bugbear of the Germans had been driven away. Globalization, it looked like for a long time, has made inflation go away. But this year prices could rise again as much as they have not in many years. The economist Volker Wieland told the Handelsblatt: “Three percent inflation in Germany is possible at the end of the year.”

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann also thinks this is realistic. After the end of the corona crisis, demand could boom and thus drive prices up. In addition, there would be special factors such as the expiry of the VAT reduction.

However, Wieland believes that even after the crisis has been overcome, prices could remain at a higher level than many think today. “The medium-term inflation risks have also increased. The inflation rate could rise to three to four percent in the next five years. “

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Texas: The cold crisis exposes the disastrous infrastructure of the USA – Handelsblatt

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  1. Texas: The cold crisis exposes the disastrous infrastructure of the USAHandelsblatt
  2. Emergency in the USA: Drinking water is running out in Texas, Anthony Fauci with corona alarmfr.de
  3. Millions of Americans without electricity or water: Texas governor blames renewable energyDaily mirror
  4. USA: Millions of Texans continue without electricity and drinking water after the onset of winterTHE MIRROR
  5. Blackout in the USA: Hundreds of thousands still without electricitytagesschau.de
  6. See “More on Topic” in Google News

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Skype founder Zennström calls for a new look at unicorns

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Niklas Zennström

The Atomico founder sees excellent opportunities for German start-ups.

(Foto: action press)

Hamburg Niklas Zennström is a veteran of the European unicorn scene. As early as 2005, the Swede sold the Skype video conferencing service to Ebay for around three billion dollars. He is now an investor himself with the London start-up financier Atomico – and calls for the bar to be raised for the unicorn label. Because the valuation of one billion euros, which the public looks at, is no longer rare in Germany either.

The German ecosystem, which is settling in, helps, says Zennström. However, he calls for more cooperation between companies, start-ups and investors in the German tech hubs. He also describes in an interview how the German investor Frank Thelen helped him to make a promising investment.

Read the entire interview here:

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Amazon offers employees $ 40 for vaccination +++ EMA wants to test vaccines against new virus variants particularly quickly

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The CDC recommends that teachers give priority to vaccinations and has issued guidelines on how schools can reopen. The CDC does not speak out clearly in favor of school openings, but states that the available data no connection between classroom teaching and high infection rates was shown would have.

The guidelines include the correct wearing of masks, distances of two meters if there are high numbers of infections, strict classroom cleanliness, regular tests and quick contact follow-up.

Many students in the United States hadn’t been to school in almost a year.

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Opel is planning a “dramatic” cut in old-age provision

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Opel plant in Rüsselsheim

A reform of the company pension system is fueling the car manufacturer.

(Photo: dpa)

Munich The more explosive the content, the more nebulous Opel HR Director Ralph Wangemann usually expresses himself – as in the summer of 2020. At that time, the carmaker’s labor director addressed his 15,000 employees in Germany directly by email.

In order to make Opel future-proof, a “fundamental modernization” of the company pension scheme is “absolutely necessary”, wrote Wangemann to his team. The current Opel pension is unfortunately a “weighty cost factor” and, in view of the corona crisis and structural change, must be trimmed to a market-oriented level.

For months, the manager left it open exactly how Wangemann wants to “modernize” the company pension at Opel. Recently, however, the employee representatives received their first insight into a concept that the Opel management team had drawn up by external consultants. Now the excitement is great.

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Deutsche Bahn stops long-distance traffic to the Czech Republic and Tyrol – Bavaria introduces commuter quarantine for cross-border commuters

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Representative of Czech commuterswho work in the Federal Republic are concerned about the planned ones stricter entry rules to Germany. The federal government in Berlin has declared the neighboring country to be a virus variant area. Jan Triska from the Czech Pendlervereinigung APCR on Friday called for financial help for those workers who are no longer allowed to drive across the border into Germany or who are overwhelmed by the situation. He pointed out that commuters in Germany would pay taxes and social security contributions.

“It shouldn’t be that you end up on the street from one day to the next,” Triska told the German Press Agency. He expects that only medical personnel and employees of the critical infrastructure will be allowed across the border. The deliberations on the details are still ongoing in Berlin.

According to Triska, even a daily test requirement would be a great additional burden. “Eight hours at work, one hour on the way there and back and then the waiting time in the test center,” he listed. That overstrains the strength of the people who then no longer have time for their families. It is estimated that driving 35,000 to 60,000 Czechs to work in Germany. Because many of them work in the hospitality industry, which is closed due to Corona, it could currently be significantly less.

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Court overturns ban on non-urgent operations – Czech Republic lifts state of emergency despite spread of mutations

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Representative of Czech commuterswho work in the Federal Republic are concerned about the planned ones tightened entry rules to Germany. The federal government in Berlin has declared the neighboring country to be a virus variant area. Jan Triska from the Czech Pendlervereinigung APCR on Friday called for financial help for those workers who are no longer allowed to drive across the border into Germany or who are overwhelmed by the situation. He pointed out that commuters in Germany would pay taxes and social security contributions.

“It shouldn’t be that you end up on the street from one day to the next,” Triska told the German press agency. He expects that only medical personnel and employees of the critical infrastructure will be allowed across the border. The deliberations on the details are still ongoing in Berlin.

According to Triska, even a daily test requirement would be a great additional burden. “Eight hours at work, one hour each on the way there and back and then the waiting time in the test center,” he listed. That overstrains the strength of the people who then no longer have time for their families. It is estimated that driving 35,000 to 60,000 Czechs to work in Germany. Because many of them work in the hospitality industry, which has been closed due to Corona, it could currently be significantly less.

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There is no curfew in Bavaria if the incidence is below 100

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The Federal Association of Forwarding and Logistics warns urgently to close the borders with the Czech Republic without exception. “Border closings for the movement of goods and goods must not be discussed with a view to the security of supply for the population and companies, otherwise supply chains will come under even more pressure – with an exacerbation of the already serious consequences for industry and trade due to the lockdown,” said Managing Director Frank Huster to the Handelsblatt.

The Federal Association of Freight Transport, Logistics and Disposal (BGL) called for truck drivers to be exempted from the obligation to test or else quickly a “test strategy for freight transport” to submit. “Either test centers must be set up at the borders immediately or quick tests by truck drivers without a medical certificate must be accepted,” said President Dirk Engelhardt to the Handelsblatt. “Otherwise stay not just a lot of supermarket shelves emptybecause we miss the truck drivers, but rather the assembly lines, especially in the automotive industry, are at a standstillbecause they can no longer be supplied. “

Engelhardt suggested an uncomplicated solution to address concerns about importing virus mutations. “The most unbureaucratic would be to exempt the truck drivers who are well insulated in their cabs from the obligation to test and finally to implement the European Green Lanes for freight traffic in Germany as well.”

(Daniel Delhaes)

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Sewing warns of new corona aid programs

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Frankfurt For years, Chancellor Angela Merkel avoided Deutsche Bank. She had to take a lot of criticism for a birthday dinner that she hosted in 2008 for the then CEO Josef Ackermann. This was followed by the years in which the bank had hardly any friends in Berlin politics because of its many scandals.

Those days are over. The Chancellor gave the welcoming speech at the bank’s virtual New Year’s reception – an important reputational success for Deutsche Bank boss Christian Sewing.

In its 151-year history, the largest domestic financial institution has “seen and survived” all the upheavals in German history, said the Chancellor. “That is a reason to congratulate.” In the fight against the economic consequences of the corona crisis, the support from the banks is essential, stressed Merkel. That is why a crisis-proof and competitive financial sector is essential for the German economy.

CEO Sewing thanked the Chancellor for pointing out the importance of the financial industry. “Personally, I am particularly pleased because we see ourselves as an important part of our country and want to be at the center of our society,” he said in his speech.

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With Federal Economics Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU), Sewing was able to welcome a second prominent political guest. Altmaier thanked Sewing for the far-reaching restructuring program that the CEO has initiated and which is expected to cost 16,000 jobs. The minister emphasized that the restructuring had strengthened confidence in Deutsche Bank.

Sewing was surprisingly optimistic about the economic situation. In his opinion, many prerequisites have been met for the global economy to pick up noticeably this year – provided that the fight against the coronavirus is successful. China has already reached pre-crisis economic levels. In the USA it should be ready in the first quarter. “For Germany and other countries in the euro zone, we expect the economy to recover strongly from the spring,” said Sewing.

In view of the high numbers of infections and the threat of corona mutations, the pandemic is not over yet, and the vaccinations also took longer than hoped. “But that’s no reason to be pessimistic. On the contrary: we still believe that 2021 can be a far better year than the last, ”emphasized Sewing in his New Year’s address.

No more new billions in aid

Sewing therefore believes that new government aid programs worth billions are unnecessary and even harmful. “If we now give full throttle to get going again, it will not be easy to keep the economy on track.” Europe has launched good economic stimulus programs. “That’s why we shouldn’t saddle up again now, that is, we shouldn’t get another huge spending package off the ground like in the US.” When the crisis is over, the debt should fall and interest rates rise again as quickly as possible.

Some prominent economists disagree with Sewing. The President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Marcel Fratzscher, called for further help in an interview with ZDF: The money that the state is now spending is well invested. He must not let himself be deterred by a “nonsensical debt brake”.

Sewing justifies his economic optimism with five arguments: On the one hand, the advances in vaccines – “not even a year after the start of the pandemic” – are a “scientific breakthrough”.

At the same time, there is a “considerable pent-up demand” among consumers and companies that have so far held back with capital investments because of the crisis. “A lot of people are just waiting to travel, eat out, go to a concert again,” said Sewing. “After the end of the Spanish flu in 1919, there was a similar explosion in consumption and investment that culminated in the ‘golden twenties’.”

In addition, from the point of view of the Deutsche Bank boss, the third and fourth points are the previous “government economic stimulus programs as the world has never seen them” and the support from the central banks.

The manager recognized the shift in US foreign policy as a fifth argument. “As the American President put it so aptly: ‘America is back.’ From our point of view, this is a major stabilizing factor that had failed for years, ”emphasized Sewing.

Fear of inflation and rising interest rates

However, Sewing also warns of the risks of the measures to contain the economic corona aid. The extremely loose monetary policy leads in the medium term to the risk of monetary devaluation. “For decades, inflation seemed like a phenomenon from a long time ago – now it could return,” says Sewing.

In sub-segments such as the real estate market and luxury goods, it is already in full swing. “It would be foolish to assume that historically low interest rates and historically large economic stimulus programs will not lead to significantly rising consumer prices as soon as the economy picks up again.”

The price for the “hopefully quick economic recovery” is high. “We are experiencing tectonic changes in national debt.” The debt ratio in all major industrialized countries except Germany is now more than 100 percent of economic output, and in the USA it is even over 120 percent.

For many countries, this level will only be sustainable if interest rates remain at the current, historically low level. “But that also means: Any sustained rise in interest rates could lead to considerable turbulence – in the financial markets and in the economy as a whole,” warned Sewing.

More: Deutsche Bank played many roles in the cum-ex scandal – and benefited significantly

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Curfew in Bavaria no longer applies if the incidence is below 100 – Altmaier invites you to the economic summit next week

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The nationwide seven-dayAccording to model calculations from Berlin, an incidence of 35 can be achieved by around the beginning of March. “The prerequisite is that people maintain their current behavior,” said the head of the Department of Traffic System Planning and Traffic Telematics at the TU Berlin, Kai Nagel, of the German Press Agency on Thursday.

His group models the infection process in Berlin, among other things anonymized cellular data. In their most recent report, the researchers wrote that people are currently observing the contact restrictions in a disciplined manner. According to Nagel, the results can be transferred to the situation nationwide.

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