you only enter with more than $ 1 million

This wholesale market was in operation before the arrival of the new controls, but it took its own flight this week. It is “the freest legal dollar”

The new measures of the Central Bank and the National Securities Commission (CNV) on the operation for the acquisition of dollars in the Cash With Liquidation market (CCL) at the beginning of this week They revitalized other legal channels to buy dollars and turn them abroad and, thus, a new price of the dollar was added to the reference values ​​for the exchange market: the “SENEBI dollar” (Bilateral Negotiation Segment).

It should be remembered that, until last week, the maximum weekly bonds that clients of the Settlement and Clearing Agents (ALyCs), stock traders that are not their own portfolio, could sell to buy CCL was 100,000 per week. And now, they can only buy 50,000.

Also, until last week, you could trade around US $ 30,000 with the AL30 bond and without limit with the GD30. But now, the cap is around $ 30,000 a week for both. Thus, the BCRA and CNV regulations put a lock more to the transaction of CCL and there are cases of people who were left with their dollars “stranded” in limbo since they have not been able to make their sales because the new measure seized them in the middle of the operation.

“In fact, a client of mine who received a very large compensation, planned to buy MEP and CCL and kept the bonds locked. He will have to wait three weeks to be able to finalize his plans as a result of the reduction of the quota,” says Mauro Cognetta, financial advisor and director of Big River.

However, when the measure was known, some experts explained that this did not imply that the client who wanted could not sell bonds through the wholesale channel, through the SENEBI, which, in fact, was always the place where large volumes were operated. What does this imply? That not everyone can access it, due to the amounts required to enter.

A characteristic of SENEBI is that the price of the CCL that is negotiated there is agreed between two parties.

What is SENEBI and how does it work?

According to official sources to iProfesional, SENEBI is a round of Stock Exchanges and Markets of Argentina (ByMA) and, therefore, in general lines, operating there has the same conditions as in the open market. “This implies, for example, that If a subject is not authorized to operate CCL, he cannot do so in this segment, “they indicate.

Likewise, the operations carried out in that segment are recorded and must be reported to BYMA at the end of the round. It is very important to note that it does not work with a reference price (that is, it is not a question of supply and demand), but the price is agreed in a negotiation between the two parties involved, a bidder and a demander.

This means that it is a market whose prices do not appear on traders’ screens and are often above average. The parties agree on a figure and close the operation, without any limit or information to the market of what the exchange rate is. But, if there are substantial differences with the screen price (the retail CCL price), it is possible that a complaint will be initiated before the Financial Information Unit (FIU).

“To operate in this square, there is a minimum transaction amount of $ 1 million, which is equivalent to around US $ 6,000, the commission to be paid for the operations carried out in that market is not preset and they are not covered by BYMA’s mandatory guarantee fund, “says a market source.

As previously stated, this Cash With Settlement will continue to operate freely and the Stock Exchange companies will not have nominal limits to operate with their own portfolio.

The retail client does not have the possibility of entering SENEBI due to the values ​​it handles

New regulation, new role for this dollar

Although it worked before the new restrictions, this market was not diffused because the average prices registered in it were very similar to those of the CCL dollar. However, these days, the dollar SENEBI“is becoming a new reference price.

It is the price that best reflects the reference price of the North American currency because it arises from the free and private exchange between a foreign company and a local company“, points out Sergio Morales, CEO of Interfinance.com.ar.

The expert explains that “the search to externalize assets by Argentine companies does not generally compensate the interest in entering foreign currency into the country, so its price ends up being very similar to the informal dollar, although with the difference that we refer to an operation electronic and completely legal. ”

A) Yes, while yesterday the CCL was trading around $ 167, the SENEBI was around $ 170. However, Cognetta explains that it is a problem that the SENEBI begins to take off more than the CCL and becomes a reference price for the market because “its price is not transparent to the public and, although the amount that was operated at the end of the day, it is not so easy to know how its value is calculated “.

The truth is that operator volumes were also boosted by the arrival of the new measures, given that, up to that moment, 30% were operated in the PPT market (traditional by screen) and 70% in SENEBI (over the counter- OTC), but after the arrival of regulation, this relationship was altered.

“On the first day, the ratio became 85% SENEBI and 25% PPT, although in the following three days it fell almost to the usual average level (70/30)”, describes the specialist. He points out, however, that “we must give it more time to see how the market is accommodating because it is still a few days”, but does not rule out that it will settle around 15% / 85% in the coming months.

In this context, Morales anticipates that the dollar “SENEBI” will continue to exist as a reference, forever and when these measures are in force.

“It should be remembered that this strategy by the Government is aimed at having greater control over financial dollars, which are public and cause a greater impact on the population on the eve of an electoral process,” he says.

For this reason, it does not rule out that the new measures remain in force at least until the elections are held.

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more experts warn that it could cross this threshold

With an expected inflation of 25% in the second semester, economists do not rule out that the blue will follow in its footsteps and accelerate its evolution. This foresee

On Tuesday, the price of blue calmed down a bit and fell $ 2, to $ 176, after a Monday in which it had reached its maximum price so far in 2021, when it touched $ 180, as a result of a rise of $ 5 in a single day. A) Yes, the gap between the illegal price and the wholesale price was close to 85%.

The jump, according to specialists, was as a consequence of the new measures for the operation of bonds for the purchase of the dollar Cash With Liqui (CCL), which anticipates a bullish outlook in the exchange market. So, beyond the eventual decline, it appears that the illegal dollar has not yet peaked.

This is what the economist of the Eco GO consultancy Sebastián Menescardi suggests to iProfesional, stating that “the price of blue is likely to trend upward, given the usual dollarization prior to electoral periods and the inflationary context, a situation that, in addition, is exacerbated these days by the greater retail demand that seeks to protect the Christmas bonus and higher disposable income “.

As the blue rises and its difference with the officer widens the gap

It is still missing for the expected maximum

With this price and with the proximity of the electoral process, which generates a tendency towards dollarization on the part of savers, more voices indicate that it is going to be worth $ 200 in the coming months.

“Towards the end of the year, the exchange rate gap will be expressed in a real dollar between $ 190 and $ 200Although the Government seeks to comply with the official budget exchange rate of $ 102, “the economist Carlos Melconian warned a few days ago. And he is not the only one who indicates it.

The economic, financial and business analyst, Salvador Di Stéfano, does not hesitate to affirm that eThe gap is likely to be 120%. “This means that we will see a blue priced between $ 200 and $ 240 because the dollar is going to be a refuge for many Argentines towards the end of the year, “he says.

In the same vein, Christian Buteler, an expert investment economist, assures that, although it is very difficult to put a price on the blue dollar, he does not doubt that it can reach $ 200 or $ 220 by the end of the year.

However, he points out that “we are talking about a 17% rise, while inflation is going to be around 25%, so it goes to higher than that percentage. “He warns that it is impossible to separate these two elements, especially when we talk about the blue, a dollar in which the Government cannot intervene, at least directly, as it does with the financial and official.

Towards the elections, a rise in the dollar is seen.

Towards the elections, a rise in the dollar is seen.

The reasons for the rise

When looking for an explanation for this rise, Di Stéfano begins by describing the sequence of the dollar this year. “It had an extraordinary effect, which was the payment of the wealth tax. When the payment of this extraordinary contribution was determined, the gap began to fall because those who had to pay it sold dollars to do so and the blue remained very stable,” he says. .

This happened in January 2021 and, in March of this year, the gap between blue and official reached 54%. The blue became the cheapest dollar on the market and it ranked below the solidarity, the MEP and the CCL.

But Di Stéfano points out that, once this tax was canceled, people began to buy back those dollars they had sold and a sequence began. “The gap went from 54% to 84% today and, today, the blue is at $ 176,” he describes.

This, according to their analysis, responds to the fact that There is a general feeling in society that spending is going to increase strongly in the face of the lectures since we have a drag on a rise in pandemic spending and a loss of income due to the closure of activities due to the pandemic.

“The effect of the pandemic generates less public income and this adds to the fact that pandemic and electoral spending will increase the deficit. As Argentina does not have international credit and has very little domestic credit,” he says. This means that the Government is having to resort to the monetary issue to finance the public budget and, faced with this situation, people try to cover themselves by buying dollars.

The BCRA has firepower, but the blue escapes its orbit of intervention.

The BCRA has firepower, but the blue escapes its orbit of intervention.

What to do to control it?

The problem is that the government has little influence in the illegal dollar market. So how can you counteract this upward trend? Menescardi, points out that his best tool is to reduce the trajectory of the inflation and your expectations, to improve the real yields of the rates in pesos and to slightly calm the demand for blue.

Along the same lines, Buteler indicates that, “if you want to stop it, you must control the inflation first of all. “Note that another possibility is to continue intervening the other markets of the dollar to keep them quiet but that, to do so, the Government would have to eat part of the buffer of reserves that it made this year as a result of the liquidation of soybeans and the Extraordinary Contribution of the Great Fortunes.

He warns that this strategy will work or not depending on how many pesos he dumps into the market.

As iProfesional reported, from November of last year to June the monetary authority would have used about 1,100 million to contain the gap. In the last two weeks, due to the greater pressures -according to the market- he had to “spend” a total of US $ 200 million.. This led the BCRA and the CNV to impose new restrictions on the operation of the CCL and the MEP.

The truth is that, today, the Government has room to intervene and a drastic jump is not in sight for now, but it ensures that everything will depend on how many pesos there are in the market.

Thus, Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica says that “the high power of fire that the BCRA has today, with the direct intervention selling securities that it has in its portfolio and, in turn, operating on the expectations by means of the futures market, they allow us to infer that it can keep the gap between the CCL and the official dollar controlled for at least the next six months “.

If so, consider that, with a gap like the current one (at 74%), it is logical to expect a financial dollar about $ 190 by the end of the year and, although Caprarulo considers it unwise to make projections for the price of blue given the small size of that market and the high volatility it presents, taking into account that the CCL is usually a parameter for the price of illegal, there is consensus between several analysts in that we will have a blue of between $ 200 and $ 250 for December.

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Should you invest in dollars or a fixed term ?: experts’ verdict

With the beginning of the second semester, a period full of questions begins to pass, especially on the political and economic front.

“In a context in which the long term is the end of the month, the medium term next week and the short term tonight, planning what to do with money could be classified as toxic and full of risks,” says a seasoned traded in the financial market.

It is not necessary to do a very deep memory exercise to agree with him, especially if you take into account the shocks that the local financial market suffered from April 2018 onwards.

But while the past can no longer be modified, the future is particularly uncertain due to the sum of factors that are added daily to the decision board.

For example, there are several milestones that cannot stop appearing on any agenda from now until the end of the year, among which we can mention the progress of the Covid-19 vaccination program, the negotiations with the IMF, the pressures that may arise. in the foreign exchange market once the liquidation of agricultural exports (and now with falling prices) and, from a political point of view, everything concerning the results of the PASO in September and the mid-term elections in November.

It clearly appears that there are too many ingredients for a cocktail that can make more than one person dizzy. saver what should you decide what to do with your money in the next six months, even more so if you do not want to venture into more complex instruments than a fixed term or the purchase of dollars.

The elections add an extra factor of uncertainty to investors

What to invest in?

“In the world of finance we all make mistakes, but it is best to do it scientifically,” reasoned an experienced banker with extensive experience in both public and private sector entities. And surely one way to do it is by appealing to the information that the Central Bank usually publishes under the name of REM or “Market Expectations Survey, in which the results of the survey carried out among a large number of consultants, independent analysts, universities, etc. are presented.

According to the monetary authority, “the REM consists of a systematic monitoring of the main short- and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts that specialized local and foreign people usually make on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy.”

From the recently published survey, The monthly estimates referring to the evolution of consumer prices, interest rates and the wholesale exchange rate were taken and three assumptions were made about the way in which the gap between the blue and the official dollar will move.

From the table it appears that in the quarter from july to september the best investment would be dollar, in case the gap between official and blue climbs from the current 82% to 90% at the end of the quarter.

On the other hand, if the current level were maintained, there would be a virtual tie between the fixed term adjustable by UVA and the traditional one, since both would have a profitability of 8.7%. Thus, they would beat blue, which would offer a 6 percent.

Regarding the fourth quarter, which runs from October to December, always according to the REM, the best option would be the dollar in two of the three scenarios. That is: that the gap between the parallel and the official climbs to 90% or even, up to 100 percent.

In these two scenarios, the profitability would be 11.6% and 14.3%, respectively, compared to a gain of 8.7% and 8.8% that the traditional fixed term and the one adjustable by UVA would obtain.

The level of the gap between blue and officer will be key in the “war” with fixed terms

Regarding the result that could be obtained by maintaining the same option over time, there is a virtual tie between the two placements in pesos, since both would provide a yield just above 18%, and the dollar blue, as long as the gap remains at current levels of 82 percent.

However, these results could be different if the difference between the marginal dollar and the wholesale dollar shoots up above 90 percent.

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will change color in Windows 11

The “Blue screen of death” Windows is a historical Windows error that has no turning back: once it appears, there is no choice but to restart the computer. Apparently Microsoft would change a tradition that started 36 years ago: would become black.

According to screenshots of the feature in the Windows 11 beta seen by The Verge, although the content on the page remains the same as in Windows 10, the “Screen of death” it has a black background instead of blue.

The rest of the information remains unchanged, with a percentage showing the time remaining for Windows to collect information about the problem, the error code, and a link and a QR code to get additional support and information.

In reality, Microsoft did not change the design of the Windows error screen since 2016, when it introduced QR codes, while in 2012, still with Windows 8 added a sad face emoji.

The new error message.

Now, after the announcement at the end of June of the new system that will replace Windows 10, an important change in this element has been announced.

A mistake with a history

Blue screen: a historical Windows error.  Photo Microsoft

Blue screen: a historical Windows error. Photo Microsoft

The first blue screen of death appears in Windows version 1.0. If the operating system cannot boot properly, a blue screen will be displayed with letters, symbols, numbers, kanji and kana in Japanese systems and special characters (mojibake).

If there was an error loading MS-DOS or in the load of Windows, I was getting a black screen with a cursor, because there is a critical error, there is a possibility that it will boot after this error.

After this, enter Windows 95 and 7, remained similar.

The Windows Error Screen 1.0, released in 1985. Photo Microsoft

The Windows Error Screen 1.0, released in 1985. Photo Microsoft

From Windows 8 added an emoji and then a code QR to have information about the error on our cell phone.

Microsoft did not comment on future changes to its next operating system. In fact, it could be that it is part of these early versions of the operating system, even the leaked one.

There was also a black version in development versions of Windows 10, but it is certainly a significant change for one of those “unlivable but irreplaceable” elements of Windows.

Actually the black screen of death had already been part of other versions of Windows in the past and it used to show up when the system couldn’t boot.

The point is that this screenshot was not like the traditional BSOD, and it used to simply show a small message warning of that circumstance and that it had not been found some file necessary for the boot process.

Microsoft introduced on Thursday of last week Windows 11, the next generation of its operating system, which will begin to arrive for free on compatible Windows 10 computers at the end of 2021. It does not yet have a release date, but it is expected to arrive. for the end of the year.

The current version of the operating system, Windows 10, was released on July 29, 2015. It is estimated that more than 1.3 billion people around the world have it installed on their computer, according to data from the company itself.

By 2025, it will be out of support.

SL

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Can the blue dollar reach $ 200 ?: what experts project

The parallel greenback took a breather on Monday but the concern is installed in the Government and in the City. What they project from the market

In the past week, the blue awoke from its slumber. It was rising slowly, at $ 1 per day, and in two days it advanced $ 8. Jumping four at a time Friday it reached $ 174. Yesterday, it was down $ 1. But this does not reassure the market: until the start of Tuesday, it took $ 8 of advantage to the solidarity (official plus taxes) and almost $ 8 to the dollar counted with settlement (CCL), while the difference with the MEP is $ 9.

From the City they warn that this bullish behavior, with some peaks, may persist from now until the end of the year.

The raise has several reasons. One of them is an update, since analysts assure that the price of the illegal was out of date with the financial prices. On this point, the economist and director of the Analytica consultancy, Ricardo Delgado, affirms that “the price of blue It is a price that, in some way, measures expectations and was ironed for a while, but in the meantime we had 25% inflation“.

While the blue was pressed, inflation hovered around 25% in the first five months of 2021.

A new economic nominality

Delgado considers that part of the readjustment observed these days is related to an update in line with the inflationary rhythm. He points out that there is a realignment of the nominality of the economy, since in recent times parities were enabled for 10% / 15% more than what had been seen, which were around 30%.

“That puts a new nominality on the economy and can influence a greater coverage of some informal sectors, which have more pesos in hand, and can go to put pressure on that market,” says Delgado.

In a similar vein, Juan Pablo Albornoz, economic analyst at Ecolatina, explains that, “although the parallel sometimes behaves like a good – as the price rises, demand increases, for fear that it will continue to rise – and then correct, part of the current rise is a readjustment “.

Another reason for the rise, as described by Sebastián Maril, from Research For Traders, is that “Today, there are many pesos in the street looking for dollars and the blue market is very limited, so it tends to go up easily“, especially in a context in which there is a lot of uncertainty, like the current one.

In the same sense, Camilo Tiscornia, director of CyT Asesores Econónicos, points out that “with the great liquidity that exists in the economy, before any change or movement, the blue can jump.” He points out that the issue in the case of blue is that the BCRA cannot intervene and, furthermore, even if it wanted to, as it still has low reserves, it does not have as much firepower to do so.

Albornoz says in this regard that the official exchange rate is running well behind inflation and that, together with rates, it seems to be the only element that could lower the price thermometer a bit. Consequently, he anticipates that this trend will surely continue at least until the elections.

“To this is added the electoral uncertainty that, regardless of the color of the party, causes people to switch to the dollar, “says the economist. In addition, he indicates that lhe deposit interest rates in pesos are strongly negative and, except for UVA fixed terms and subsidized loans, there are no signs of attractiveness for instruments in conventional pesos, and that is another element that drives dollarization.

There is a lot of demand and little supply in the blue market these days and, being limited, it reacts.

There is a lot of demand and little supply in the blue market these days and, being limited, it reacts strongly.

Are there reasons for it to keep climbing?

In this context, the question is, how far will blue go? Delgado explains that the price of the blue dollar is a bet and is very difficult to forecast because it has low volume and forms prices with some retraction of supply and a rise in demand, as we are seeing in recent days.

“Financiers can be controlled by the BCRA and that makes them rise without so much volatility,” says a market source in the same sense. However, consider that all the accumulated tensions can give the blue a boost to the $200, even at some point in the previous election.

He acknowledges that, “psychologically, he is strong, but considers that, in terms of the exchange gap it will be much less than 150% we had in October 2020 due to inflationLikewise, he assures that it is a harmful fact, but more on the psychological side and expectations than for the exchange market.

He comments that financiers can be kept more in line because the BCRA intervenes in the market, but that “many conditions are in place for us to see a bigger gap in the coming months“, although the Central Bank made it clear that it can contain financial dollars and prevent them from having sudden movements.

In this sense, another source from the City considers that the regulator is going to try to maintain a financial gap of around 90/100% and calculates that, if the BCRA maintains the rate of appreciation at a monthly average of 1.3%, to October, the price of blue would then reach the $190.

Thus, he considers that many consulting firms will have to review your forecasts for the dollar towards the end of the year because the dropper devaluation that we are seeing these days is occurring at a lower rate than expected. So wait un official price below $ 112 for December and foresees a value for the blue that is around $190.

In coincidence with this diagnosis, Albornoz, from Ecolatina, anticipates that, surely, overheat the gap, but he assures that the Central Bank has the tools to avoid a run as big as last year and hopes that they will keep financial dollars at bay at least until the elections.

“The excellent liquidation of agriculture, which allowed doubling the net reserves it had at the end of the year, although they remain at low levels, the bridge for the payment to the Paris Club and the possibility of reaching a similar agreement with the IMF are elements that allow to foresee this scenario “, he describes.

The liquidation of soybeans favored the accumulation of reserves by the BCRA.

The liquidation of soybeans favored the accumulation of reserves by the BCRA.

Thus, although it is on the rise, Ezequiel Estrada, director of Ficonomics, comments that “blue is a marginal market that is correlated with the CCL and MEP dollar.”

After the recategorization of Argentina as a standalone, he considers that a higher than expected discouragement can be expected, since many estimated that the rating would be on the frontier, but he rules out that there will be a strong jump in the official dollar, since the BCRA has the power of fire to contain this.

“The government cannot allow exchange rates to escape this year, so one suspects that there will be helping hands assisting in the control of blue if it doesn’t calm down, “anticipates Tiscornia.

The clear thing is that the blue woke up from the lethargy in which it was. The “prince’s kiss” may have been the beginning of the Christmas bonus payment and modifications in Profits that they put more liquidity in the market; also, the postponement of the payment to the Paris Club, which generates uncertainty, and, perhaps also, although it is still early for that, the uncertainty in the face of the elections.

Nothing guarantees that the blue will remain at current levels, since it is a price that tends to rise and fall sharply at times due to the smallness of the market and its susceptibility to any movement. However, as Tiscornia points out, “the value it has now is much more sensible than when it was at $ 140.”

The economist warns that “the monetary issue is waking up and there will be more money in the street, so it is a risk that part of that liquidity will go towards the blue dollar”, so it will most likely not be the cheapest dollar again, at least for a time.

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Buy soildario dollar and sell on the blue: how much can you earn

The result of buying dollars at a “solidarity” price and then selling them in a cave leaves a concrete profit. But is it worth it?

The blue dollar ended a week in pure fever: between Thursday and Friday the price shot up $ 8 to reach the $174. This is the highest value recorded so far this year, but what is causing alarm is that the gap with the “solidarity” dollar was suddenly widened.

The official retail dollar closed this Friday at $ 100.99, so the real dollar that savers can buy via home banking (to which the tax burden is added) was an average $166,63.

In this way, a difference of $7,37 between the two quotes and many Argentines begin to wonder if this can make a profit.

That’s where the so-called “dollar mash“In the jargon,” mash “is the transaction that results from buying the official dollars that allow the monthly quota in the formal market (in this case, US $ 200 per month and per person) and then selling them, at a price mayor (blue dollar), in the parallel or informal market (caves).

The origin of the term is not too clear, although it could be due to the mixture of different types of dollar -something common in the 2001 crisis-, as a “mash”.

Gap

With the prices of this Friday, June 25, the puree leaves a profit of just about $ 874, using the full quota of $ 200 per person.

To obtain this income, you need about $ 33,326, which is the equivalent of $ 200 to the price of the “solidarity” on this day ($ 166.63).

The 26% gap between the official dollar and the blue one makes many people turn to “mash” to earn a little money

Then, the saver who ventures to a place where blue is exchanged will not receive $ 174 for each ticket, because that is the price at which the cavemen sell. In the caves you pay on average for each of the tickets about $ 171 (Purchase price this Friday, but it may be less, since it is an informal market), which results in $ 34,200 cash. Consequently, a utility of $874, or 2.62%.

The income obtained is not great today and is very far from the furor of mashed potatoes in the second half of 2020, when returns of more than 30% were obtained.

Due to the exchange gap, more and more people resort to this maneuver

Due to the exchange gap, more and more people resort to this maneuver

How does it work

The maneuver persists even if there are not too many people on the street due to the total quarantine: the “little trees” continue to act via delivery with a taxi or a motorcycle.

At this time, the difference in prices makes it attractive despite the difficulties of isolation. While the official rises by “trickle”, of a few cents a day in the wholesale market, the blue dollar reached $ 174, due to the greater restrictions in other markets -the official and the stock market, more surrounded by the stocks- and the economic uncertainty due to debt that triggers a desire to dollarize.

The “mash” persists, but other maneuvers to profit from the difference in exchange rates have already been regulated. The “roller” – a legal maneuver – consisted of buying bonds in dollars at the official price and selling them on the MEP or dollar “stock market”, which has a higher price.

The obligation to comply with a “parking lot”, leave the securities “parked” before being able to sell them, a requirement that made it less attractive due to the price volatility that may exist in that period, limited operations.

The blue, again the most expensive dollar

Until two weeks ago, the blue market ticket was the cheapest of all the multiple dollars that operate in Argentina.

Forex traders considered that it was an expected rise, taking into account that the price of the blue closed in 2020 at $ 166, and remained quiet until the second week of June, while the financial dollars registered rises of up to 18% so far in 2021.

Meanwhile, the inflation it is close to 24% (21.5% until May) in the first semester, another of the variables observed by investors and savers who seek to protect their funds against inflation.

Analysts indicated that other factors that may influence this resurgence in the price of blue are the imminent reimbursement of the Income Tax (workers will begin to collect it in July on a monthly basis until November), and the entry into force or readjustments of some agreements peers.

But what worries the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank the most is the tendency to dollarize savings in times close to the elections, which in Argentina usually generate turmoil in equity and currency markets.

On September 12, the primaries will be held, and in November the general legislative ones, where the government will try to consolidate its majority in Congress.

The expected higher monetary issue by the Central Bank could also play a role, to assist the Treasury in the midst of the electoral dispute, analysts said.

The blue comes from registering two consecutive monthly increases: it increased by $ 9 in April and by $ 7 in May, while it recorded monthly decreases in January, February and March, reaching a low of $ 139 in early April.

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Will the Government be able to contain the DOLLAR?

Expectations of economic recovery are underpinned by exchange rate peace. Why the soy crash could be a severe blow

The enthusiasm of soybeans above the u $ s600 it was intense but did not last long. The ton of the oilseed surpassed that mark a month ago, but then began to gradually decline until yesterday, Thursday, it blew several fuses: it suddenly plunged to $ 488.

This Friday, the soybean rebounds and remains in u $ s513 per ton. It is still a good price for the country, but the latest movements have exposed the volatility of the market. For analysts, the problem is that if the fall of soybeans continues, the Argentine economy will be punished and the price of the dollar may suffer the shock. In fact, this week blue jumped $ 6 to $ 164, just shy of this year’s peak ($ ​​165 in January).

The Economist Salvador Di Stefano accounts for the magnitude of the problem, by ensuring that Argentina could lose about $ 6.8 billion to thicken their Bookings and $ 172,000 million in tax revenue, given the sharp drop in soybeans and corn in recent weeks.

“Those who prayed to the holy soy will have to change their saint, or have more fiscal austerity, otherwise lthe gap between the wholesale dollar and the alternative dollars will return to above 100%“, advise.

Di Stefano argues that the fiscal income that does not arrive will be replaced by issuance of the Central Bank and thus there will be more abundance of pesos. “The dollars that do not arrive we are going to miss, therefore, there will be a shortage of dollars. In this scenario, the alternative dollars will be on the rise,” he says.

Is it time to buy dollars?

Di Stefano anticipates an imminent “abundance of pesos” in circulation, making buying dollars appear as “a good business“.

In July there will be an abundance of pesos in the market because the Government gives generalized increases to those who receive social benefits, retirees and pensioners. The workers collect the half bonus and will not pay profits, the return of the amount paid in concept of income taxes will begin for the fourth category that charges less than $ 150,000, and the salary with the lowest tax burden. The parity companies mostly arrive with increases of over 40% per year, “he explains.

And he adds: “To this should be added the process of portfolio dollarization that is carried out by savers before each choice, and there are less than 90 days left for the PASO, and less than 150 days for the legislative ones. ”

For the economist and consultant, “as long as the dollar has a gap of less than 80%, it seems reasonable to buy. Therefore, if it is less than $ 180 it could be a good business thinking in the medium term. If the government fails to regain confidence, the gap could once again exceed 100%“.

The economist Salvador Di Stéfano.

Without “super soy”, the Central Bank loses firepower

In parallel with the bad news coming from the commodity market, the purchases of dollars made by the Central Bank have been slowing down. While in the first 17 days of May, the BCRA’s money desk was able to acquire US $ 1,557 million in the exchange market, in the same period but this month, the purchases cost US $ 540 million. Ergo, the Central buys a third of what it had been adding a month ago.

Of course, May was very “exceptional.” There was a record sale of the last 18 years thanks to the soybean boom: the sector sold around US $ 3.5 billion. The BCRA acquired US $ 2,089 million last month, the maximum amount since it arrived Miguel Angel Pesce a Reconquista 266. Now the liquidation of commercial dollars began to be less.

Miguel Pesce will face a complex second semester with fewer dollars and more pressure for the elections

Miguel Pesce will face a complex second semester with fewer dollars and more pressure for the elections

The end of abundance

But already entered the “dreaded” second semester, when the amount of foreign exchange liquidation by the countryside naturally falls, the challenge for the BCRA – even more so in the face of an electoral year – is greater. To this, The sudden drop in the price of soybeans in Chicago – which suffered 8% this Thursday and fell below US $ 500 per ton – sets off another unexpected alarm for the Government.

Not only is there less income of dollars through the commercial channel (the only one that the country has since the financial one is virtually nil), but there are debt maturities in dollars that will demand foreign currency, scarce in the context of the “fire power” that the BCRA has to ensure an orderly transition in electoral times.

Quantum Finanzas, Daniel Marx’s consulting firm, affirms that going forward, net payments to international organizations may affect the accumulation of reserves. And he puts numbers on it: there are capital maturities with the IMF for the equivalent of US $ 3,800 million – plus interest payments of US $ 600 million-. Although it is estimated that it is very likely that the allocation of SDRs – which would only be in August or September – for the equivalent of US $ 4,400 million will be used to meet these maturities, there are doubts because a part of the ruling party wants them to increase public spending.

The difficulties in generating a net supply of foreign exchange -particularly through financing-, at a time when the seasonality of foreign trade will not play in favor, the possibility that the fiscal deficit is greater than expected, with its correlation in the monetary issue, and its effects on expectations and decisions of economic agents represent the main challenges facing the Government to continue accumulating reserves “, recalls Quantum.

The rise in the gap will depend on how much the BCRA spends

The increase in the gap will depend on how much the BCRA spends selling bonds and repurchasing it against dollars

Is there room to contain the gap?

Adding to the biggest problems in accumulating dollars going forward is the fact that the BCRA will have to use its firepower to control financial dollars when the legislative elections approach. Although the Central improved its net reserve position, which would currently be around US $ 6 billion, it must intervene in the cash market with liquidation to control the gap.

The BCRA used US $ 1.2 billion since November last year to lower pressure on the CCL. On the one hand, it sells bonds that it has in its portfolio (those arising from the local law exchange but in dollars) against pesos, in order to remove pressure from the implicit exchange rate that arises from operating public securities, but then it uses constant and sound dollars to buy back part of those bonds that he sold. So from what it adds in the exchange market, what operates in the MAE is finally subtracted from it.

The CCL at $ 165 and the MEP or Stock Exchange dollar at $ 160, marking a gap against the official of 75% and 68% respectively, they turn on the alarms. They are already at levels that complicate the functioning of the economy and, if they continue to increase due to the typical electoral dollarization, it will consume more reserves to the BCRA. The blue, which the Central cannot control, began to wake up and is arbitrating with the rest of the quotes.

Although there is a consensus in the market that the Central has room for action to cushion the shocks that may occur in the financial prices of the dollar, the truth is that it has a cost. That cost translates into fewer dollars for reserves, while the country seeks an agreement with the IMF and the Paris Club that allows it not to have to disburse greenbacks in the coming years.

Know the value of the dollar in Dollar Today and followed the price and behavior minute by minute. CLICK HERE

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New fuel shakes the throne of gasoline.. its market will reach 11 trillion dollars

Bank of America reports that hydrogen technology in all its colors has reached a tipping point, and could explode with a total market potential of $11 trillion by 2050.

This comes as the European Union put in place its new hydrogen strategy last year.

Some of the world’s green hydrogen leaders have begun collaborating with the ambitious goal of increasing its production volume to 50 times current production within the next six years.

This new fuel, which is environmentally friendly, and may be more sustainable, will shake the throne of gasoline if it becomes easier to produce, more widely distributed and safer for public use.

Although this renewable energy is not shed extensively, the acceleration of investments in this sector reveals further development.

Among the efforts are the Green Hydrogen Catapult initiative, founded by Saudi clean energy group ACWA Power, Australian project developer CWP Renewables, European energy giants Iberdrola and Ørsted, as well as Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Envision, Italian gas group Snam, and Yara, a Norwegian fertilizer producer.

The initiative aims to produce 25 gigawatts of green hydrogen – easily transportable – by 2026.

This transportation breakthrough could drive hydrogen costs below $2/kg, making it competitive with fossil fuels.

Water is known to be the only by-product of hydrogen combustion, which is why hydrogen has, for decades, been a lure to scientists as a carbon-free energy source. However, the traditional hydrogen production process, which involves exposing fossil fuels to steam, is far from carbon-free. The hydrogen produced in this way is called gray hydrogen, and if carbon dioxide is isolated from it, it is known as blue hydrogen, according to the American Journal of Science.

Hydrogen is distributed at car fueling stations

green hydrogen

Green hydrogen is different. It is produced by electrolysis using machines that break down water into hydrogen and oxygen, without any byproducts. Electrolysis usually required so much electrical energy that it was unreasonable to produce hydrogen in this way. Today, the situation has changed due to two reasons: the first is the availability of a large surplus of renewable electricity in the electricity distribution networks; Instead of storing excess electricity in large batches of batteries, it can be used in the electrolysis process of water, thus “storing” the electricity as hydrogen. The second reason is due to the increase in the efficiency of the electrolysis machines.

The companies are actively seeking to develop electrolysis machines that can produce green hydrogen at the same cost as gray and blue hydrogen, a goal analysts expect the companies will be able to achieve within the next 10 years. At the same time, energy companies began using electrolyzers directly to renewable energy projects. For example, a consortium of companies sponsoring a project called Gigastack plans to equip Ørsted’s Hornsea Two offshore wind farm with 100 megawatts of electrolysis equipment to generate green hydrogen on an industrial scale.

Wind Energy

Current technologies, such as those used in solar and wind energy production, can reduce carbon dependence in the energy sector by up to 85% by replacing both gas and coal with clean electricity. Some other economic sectors, such as the shipping and manufacturing sectors, face more difficulty in switching to electricity. They usually require a fuel that has a higher energy density or heat at higher temperatures. However, there is still a green hydrogen future in these sectors; The Energy Transitions Commission, a coalition of energy companies, notes that green hydrogen is one of four technologies necessary to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of reducing more than 10 billion tons of CO2 emissions. carbon dioxide annually in the industrial sectors that constitute the greatest challenge in this field, such as the mining, construction and building sectors, and the chemical industries.

hydrogen turbines

hydrogen turbines

Although the production of green hydrogen is still taking its first steps, many countries are investing in this technology, especially those countries that have low-cost renewable energy. Among these countries is Australia, which seeks to export the hydrogen to be produced by exploiting its available solar and wind energy, while Chile plans to produce hydrogen in the arid regions in the north of the country, which is rich in electricity generated using solar energy. As for China, it plans to launch one million hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2030, according to the magazine.

Similar projects are under way in South Korea, Norway and the United States, where efforts are being made in California to eliminate fossil-fueled buses by 2040. The European Commission recently published the 2030 Hydrogen Production Plan, which It calls for increasing hydrogen production capacity to 500 gigawatts by 2050 (current capacities are only 0.1 gigawatts). This prompted the global financial services firm Goldman Sachs, earlier this year, to predict that the value of market investments in green hydrogen production will reach $12 trillion by 2050.

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If you bet today on a FIXED TERM UVA: how much would you earn in 90 days? – iProfesional.com

  1. If you bet today on a FIXED TERM UVA: how much would you earn in 90 days?iProfesional.com
  2. The traditional fixed term loses strength compared to other optionsPerfil.com
  3. The boom in UVA fixed terms continues, which almost tripled in volume since the beginning of 2021The Capital of Mar del Plata
  4. Strenna 2021: Fixed term UVA or traditional? the best option to saveBae Business
  5. Common fixed term vs fixed term UVA: pros and cons of eachiProfesional.com
  6. See full coverage on Google News

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End of series but I have a surprising video for you…

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