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Cars overtook the devaluation – Newspaper Kommersant No. 98 (7060) dated 09.06.2021

The export of cars from the Russian Federation is growing compared to last year, when production and sales were affected by restrictions due to the coronavirus. However, relative to the indicators of the pre-crisis 2019, shipments abroad are falling for both passenger cars and trucks. Experts believe that the rise in the cost of cars in ruble terms against the background of devaluation had a negative effect – this affected the availability of Russian cars in the main markets of the CIS countries.

In January-April, the export of passenger cars from Russia increased by 29.2% to 28.3 thousand units, the Federal Customs Service calculated. In money terms, exports increased by 47.4%, to $ 452.7 million. In April, 9.6 thousand cars went abroad for $ 152.2 million, which is 31.1% and 28.6% higher than a year earlier. in pieces and money, respectively.

Over the four months, deliveries of trucks abroad increased by 29.2% in units (3.6 thousand units) and by 9% in monetary terms ($ 102.4 million). Of these, 1,300 trucks were shipped in April, which is 25% more than a year earlier. In money terms, this is an increase of 41.8% to $ 34.1 million.

AvtoVAZ does not provide specific data on exports, but speaks of the fulfillment of the plan, explaining the increase in supplies by a revival in local markets. Basically, Lada cars are supplied to the CIS countries, but the concern also ships cars to “some states in the Middle East, North Africa and Latin America” ​​- about 20 countries in total. The main exporter in the cargo segment, KamAZ, speaks of a 40% increase in shipments in four months, without naming absolute figures. The main factor influencing the dynamics of exports is also called the recovery in demand.

The GAZ group says they operate in more than 40 countries, including Germany, Vietnam, the Philippines, Egypt, and Latin America. But the obstacle to the development of GAZ exports is the sanctions, “which, despite the valid licenses, make it impossible to implement many projects.” “Without sanctions, our export volumes would have been at least twice as large,” the company says, without specifying the current export volumes.

However, compared to the pre-crisis 2019, the situation with the export of cars is not so rosy. So, for four months of 2021, the export of passenger cars in quantitative terms was 15% lower than two years earlier, in money terms – 0.4% lower. For trucks, the situation is similar: a decline of 12.2% in units and 0.4% in monetary terms.

Dmitry Babansky from SBS Consulting notes that the rise in the cost of cars in ruble terms had a negative impact on the availability of Russian cars in the main markets – Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belarus.

The rise in prices for cars in the Russian Federation continues: carmakers are winning back growing costs, including due to the rise in prices for components, as well as the devaluation of the ruble amid strong domestic demand.

In Belarus, the market situation is different: according to the Belarusian Automobile Association, sales of new cars in the country in January-April fell by 38% compared to 2020. Mr. Babansky notes that the Belarusian market is not recovering as dynamically as in neighboring countries, which affects the export sales of Russian automakers.

In addition, the sales of the largest Russian player Lada dropped significantly in Kazakhstan (by 43% in four months), concludes Mr. Babansky. The assembly of Lada in Kazakhstan at the Asia Auto site was interrupted due to disagreements with the country’s authorities on the terms of localization (see Kommersant on February 25). It was only resumed at the end of March, at another plant. After the stop of “Asia Auto” in the Union of enterprises of the automotive industry of Kazakhstan “KazAvtoProm” said that because of this, consumers faced a shortage of the most popular cars and a rise in prices.

Olga Nikitina