If the legislative elections were held today, António Costa would qualify to win the second absolute majority for the PS_in the history of Portuguese democracy, according to the barometer of the Eurosondagem / Libertas Group for the Sunrise.
In fact, in this study on the intention to vote of the Portuguese, PS_gains this month the trust of over 0.8% of the electorate, adding up to 40.8%, which, with PSD_a not exceeding 27.3%, would correspond to a parliamentary bench certainly with more than 115 deputies – it should be noted that, in relation to the 2019 legislatives, the party in government adds 4.4% more, while the largest opposition party remains at 27%.
The most significant difference in relation to the last elections for the Assembly of the Republic comes, however, from Chega: André Ventura’s party more than triples the percentage of voters, now reaching 9 percentage points (plus 7.7% of the than in October 2019). And Ventura surpasses Jerónimo de Sousa in the popularity ranking of party leaders.
Catarina Martins’ BE, which once again lost points, is reached by the Jerónimo PCP (with 5.2%).
Among the smaller parties, the departure of André Silva and the entry of Inês de Sousa Real do not seem to have given new impetus to the PAN (2.1%), which continues to trail the CDS of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (2.2%) and the IL by João Cotrim Figueiredo (2.5%).
Who do you think will win the next municipal elections?
Other party: 43.1%
Doesn’t Know/Doesn’t Answer: 14.8%
Who do you think will win the Lisbon Chamber?
Other party: 45.5%
Doesn’t know/Doesn’t answer: 12.5%
Who do you think will win the Porto Chamber?
Rui Moreira: 42.4%
Other Candidate: 44%
Doesn’t know/Doesn’t answer: 13.6%
How do you see the role of the President of the Republic?
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: +71.1%
How would you vote if the legislative elections were held today?
PS: 40,8% (+0,8%)
PSD: 27,3% (-0,1%)
Enough: 9.0% (+0.6%)
Left Block: 5.2% (-0.3%)
CDU: 5.2% (+ 0.2%)
Liberal Initiative: 2.5% (-0.2%)
CDS: 2,2% (-0,3%)
PAN: 2,1% (-0,1%)
Other Parties/White and Nulls: 5.7% (-0.8%
How do you see the role of political leaders?
António Costa: +45.8%
Rui Rio: +22.5%
André Ventura: + 4.8%
Jerónimo de Sousa: + 4.4%
Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos: +1.3%
Catarina Martins: -3.6%
Cotrim Figueiredo: -7.7%
Inês Sousa Real: -10.1%
TECHNICAL DATA: Opinion Study carried out by Eurosondagem for the newspaper Nascer do SOL, Porto Canal, Açoreano Oriental, Diário de Aveiro, Diário Insular dos Açores, Diário de Coimbra, Diário de Leiria, DN Madeira, Diário de Viseu, Oeiras Actual ( CM Oeiras) and Setubalense with the sponsorship of Grupo Libertas from 5th to 8th July 2021. Telephone interviews, carried out by selected and supervised interviewers, for mobile phones and landline telephones. The Universe is the population aged 18 or over, residing in Mainland Portugal and the Autonomous Regions. Sample stratified by Region, and random with regard to Gender and Age. A total of 1295 interview attempts were made and, of these, 273 (21.1%) did not agree to collaborate in the Opinion Study. 1022 interviews were validated. The maximum error of the Sample is 3.07%, for a probability degree of 95.0%. A copy of this Opinion Study is deposited with the Regulatory Authority for
the Social Communication. Lisbon, 9th July 2021. The Technical Manager of Eurosondagem Rui Oliveira Costa