astronomy Archives

Coronavirus, what you need to know this week: the threat of variants

January 22, 2021 by drbyos

Vaccination against Covid-19 broadens its audience but the progression of variants prevents any relaxation.

Hello,

Vaccination does not mean the end of restrictions. While the government currently favors the the state, the progression of English variant raises the threat of re-containment. But the Brazilian variant he too is wreaking havoc, especially in Manaus in the Amazon where he sows doubt on collective immunity. A certainty in France, the excess mortality in 2020 is “beyond measure” and thelife expectancy had not recorded such a decline since 1945. Enough to increase the impatience of the French to get vaccinated. The vaccine doses still need to be available. In short, we will still have to keep our masks for many months, but not just any. The craft masks are in the crosshairs. And again, even with the masks students are deprived of amphis. Result, they are in the street.

Good reading,

Camille Lestienne, journalist at Figaro

1. The coronavirus variants worry the world

Residents of Manaus in Brazil mourn their dead after a surge in Covid-19 cases. BRUNO KELLY / REUTERS

Faced with variants, reconfinement. With 26,784 new Covid-19 contaminations detected in 24 hours, a record since November, and 2,839 people hospitalized in intensive care, the epidemic situation remains very fragile. It could have stabilized if the English variant, which progresses at an exponential dynamic, had not destroyed this optimistic scenario. According to models, the number of hospitalizations will exceed the peak of the second wave in March if no additional measures are taken. Containment in the UK and Ireland has managed to reverse the incidence curve. After a defense council yesterday, the executive maintains the the state on restrictive measures but the French are ready. Three quarters of them are already resigned to be re-defined according to a survey. In reality, three variants frighten the world. They come to us from England, South Africa and Brazil. If it seems certain that the English variant is more contagious, the evolutions of the South African and Brazilian variants are more uncertain. The latter is suspected in the new disaster that hits the city of Manaus. Its greater contagiousness would be the only explanation for the surge in cases and deaths that is wreaking havoc in this city located in the heart of the Amazon rainforest. Manaus has already been badly affected in the spring with perhaps 76% of the population infected. What to call into question the strategy of collective immunity.

Read also :Los Angeles overwhelmed by the Covid-19 epidemic

Mortality on the rise, marriages on the decline: the Covid harvest in 2020. During this year marked by the Covid 19 epidemic, the increase in deaths is “Beyond measure”, notes INSEE in its annual demographic report. 667,400 deaths from all causes were recorded in 2020 in France, or 9% more than in 2018 or 2019, notes the publication of the statistical institute, even if we do not know the exact proportion of deaths linked to Covid. One thing is certain: 93% of Covid victims are over 65, according to Public Health France (SpF), while the average age of Covid victims is 82 and half of the dead are over 85. Another bad news is that life expectancy has dropped slightly, by 0.4 years for women and 0.5 years for men. It could even, for the latter, be 0.6 years taking into account the latest death figures. This is the biggest loss of life expectancy since 1945 for men. “You have to go back to World War II to record such a decline, underlines Michel Guillot, researcher at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED). And the pandemic is also taking its part in marriages which show a historic decline of -34.1% compared to 2019.

Read also :Covid-19: the virus is able to enter the brain and infect neurons there

2. Vaccination and masks under debate

Category 2 fabric masks and homemade masks are not recommended by the High Council of Public Health. FABRIZIO BENSCH / REUTERS

A vaccine, and fast! «With the acceleration of the vaccination campaign in nursing homes. We will have largely reached the million French people vaccinated by the end of the month», Declared Olivier Véran the Minister of Health whereas yesterday there were 692,777 French people vaccinated with a first dose. On Monday, the vaccination campaign was extended to people over 75 years old and to those with pathologies likely to cause serious forms of Covid-19. According to the ministry, nearly 500,000 vaccinations are scheduled this week. Quirks and controversies accompanied this new phase: difficulty in making an appointment, delay in delivery of doses, logistical failures denounced by mayors. The problem according to a general practitioner interviewed by Le Figaro is that “the authorities have made eligible population segments larger than the first orders“. However, the French are now mostly in favor of the vaccine, which was not the case before the holidays. Faced with the impatience of populations to be vaccinated, the delay in production announced by Pfizer is therefore putting European governments under pressure. Italy intends to take legal action against the American laboratory.

Read also :Covid-19: are we lacking doses to vaccinate the 6.4 million priority people?

Read also :Covid vaccine: are we protected after the first injection?

New debate on masks. Entangled in the controversy over vaccines, we would have forgotten our masks. They remind us of this week with the latest advice from the High Council of Public Health (HSCP) which recommends avoiding category 2 fabric masks just like homemade ones. Not sufficiently filtering, they would not be effective against the new variants of the more contagious coronavirus. The Ministry of Health has not yet decided. In fabric, surgical, FFP2, which masks to trust, one wonders? Le Figaro make the point. Wearing the FFP2 mask, the most filtering, is not however recommended for everyday life. A downside, judge journalist Anne-Laure Frémont, who recalls the month of March 2020 when the mask was not considered useful in order to preserve stocks for caregivers.

Read also :Wearing a “double mask” like Joe Biden is it useful against the Covid?

3. University in peril, winter sports too

For lack of amphis, the youth are in the streets. ALAIN JOCARD / AFP

The students crack. They were a few hundred, surrounded by many journalists. The students demonstrated yesterday afternoon in the Latin Quarter, in Paris, to proclaim their despair at the closed universities. For young people, it is the great depression. The announcement of a resumption of tutorials and half-group from January 25 for first year students only had the effect of a Scottish shower. “I am disappointed, but not surprised. Schoolchildren, college students, high school students, preparatory and BTS students can go to class, but students do not have access to lecture halls, where they are nevertheless seated all day at two meters distance ”, comments a student. The president’s response will not reassure them: “I’m telling you frankly: we’ll have to hold on“, He wrote to a young student who had challenged him on social networks. Those who regretted that we talk more about ski resorts than students can be reassured. They did not succeed. The ski lifts will remain closed on February 1 and most likely throughout the season. The announcement was made yesterday by the Secretary of State for Tourism.

Read also :Covid-19: should students and workers be vaccinated as a priority?

4. Curfew, instructions for use

Partly deconfined, France is under curfew since December 15. It is possible to move around freely during the day but leaving your home is prohibited between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m., under penalty of a fine of 135 euros. A schedule imposed on the entire metropolitan area since January 16.

There are exceptional reasons for which a certificate must be presented.

Business trips.
Consultations and care
Travel for compelling family reasons.
Travel for people with disabilities and their companions.
Judicial or administrative summons.
Participation in missions of general interest
Travel related to transit
Short trips for the needs of pets.

Read also :6:00 p.m. curfew certificate: download the paper or smartphone form

5. Reflexes to keep

A few simple actions can limit the spread of the virus. Here they are :

Wash your hands every hour or use hydroalcoholic gel
Cough or sneeze into the crease of your elbow
Use disposable tissues
Avoid kissing or shaking hands
Wear a mask in public spaces when respect for physical distances is not guaranteed.

Covid-19 is transmitted through droplets (respiratory secretions), by close contact with an infected person, especially when the latter coughs or sneezes. But it can also be transmitted through the air. The virus also remains viable for a few hours on different surfaces.

The disease manifests itself in several symptoms. In 9 out of 10 cases, this results in a fever below 39 ° C. According to the World Health Organization, this fever is most often accompanied by fatigue, signs of shortness of breath and a dry cough. Often a loss of smell and taste.

6. What to do in case of symptoms?

The most important thing is to get tested. According to the recommendations of the Ministry of Health, you should, in case of symptoms, stay at home and contact your doctor who will order a test. While waiting for the result, you must isolate yourself, wear a mask and prepare a list of people you could have infected.

If the test is positive, the Primary Health Insurance Fund will contact people likely to be infected. You must then remain isolated for at least 8 days, taking care not to infect your loved ones. Watch your health. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If necessary, schedule a follow-up remote consultation with your doctor. If you feel that you are having difficulty breathing, call 15.

If the test is negative, contact your doctor and follow his instructions.

See you next week.

the United States is stepping up its fight against the pandemic, Beijing is partly reconfiguring itself

January 22, 2021 by drbyos

UPDATE ON THE SITUATION – New reports, new measures, highlights: Le Figaro takes stock of the latest developments in the Covid-19 pandemic around the world.

As Joe Biden’s arrival at the White House signals the return of the United States to the World Health Organization (WHO), the world is taking new steps to try to stem the spread of the coronavirus and of its new variants: confinements in China, curfew in the Netherlands … In Europe, new border controls are being discussed. To not miss any of the latest highlights related to Covid-19, Le Figaro takes stock of the latest news from this Thursday, January 21.

The United States steps up the fight against the pandemic

Invested in Washington on Wednesday, Joe Biden reaffirmed that the fight against the coronavirus was among the country’s priorities. Among the first measures, he ordered the return of the United States to the World Health Organization (WHO), after the withdrawal decided by his predecessor Donald Trump in 2020, and signed a decree making the wearing of the mask and mandatory physical distancing for US officials working in federal buildings.

The coronavirus toll in the United States exceeds that of American soldiers killed in World War II. There have been 405,400 deaths since the start of the pandemic. The most bereaved country in absolute terms, the United States is also the most affected country in terms of the number of cases (more than 24.4 million).

Beijing is partly reconfiguring itself

Chinese authorities on Wednesday reported the first cases in Beijing linked to the British variant. Beijing announced the strict containment of five residences in Daxing, a suburb in the south of the capital, after the discovery of new cases. This confinement concerns a few tens of thousands of people, a small fraction of the 21 million inhabitants of the city. Several hundred patients have been identified in recent weeks in the north and northeast of the country, where millions of people have been confined or must restrict their movements.

Read also :Caught up by the Covid-19, China responds quickly and strongly

In France, ski resorts remain closed

In France, it will still not be possible to go downhill skiing in the country. The authorities decided on Wednesday not to reopen the ski lifts on February 1. During a press conference organized by telephone this Wednesday, January 20, the Secretary of State for Tourism extinguished the meager hope of winter sport professionals. “There will be no reopening of ski resorts on February 1, and the prospect of reopening in mid or late February seems highly unlikely.», He affirmed.

European summit, border controls under discussion

In Europe, the Twenty-Seven meet Thursday evening for a new summit by videoconference devoted to the fight against the pandemic, at a time when several countries, like Germany, toughen their measures to try to counter the spread of the new strains. Response to variants, acceleration of vaccination and establishment of a common certificate are on the agenda. The French government also said on Wednesday it was in favor of health controls at intra-European borders, an option that German Chancellor Angela Merkel did not rule out on Tuesday.

The variants continue their routes

Coronavirus mutations continue to spread around the world. The British variant, much more contagious than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, is now identified in 60 countries and territories, according to the WHO. The South African variant spreads more slowly and is present in 23 countries and territories, 3 more than on 12 January. But it risks posing another problem: several new studies seem to confirm that, unlike the English variant, it risks at least partially escaping the expected protection of vaccines against Covid-19. WHO has also indicated that it is monitoring the dissemination of two other variants that have appeared in Brazil, P1, reported in the state of Amazonas and also detected in Japan in four people from Brazil, and another variant.

Read also :Covid-19: these three variants that frighten the world

A curfew in the Netherlands

The Netherlands have announced a curfew from Friday until February 10, which will run from 8:30 p.m. to 4:30 a.m. The measure should make it possible to reduce home contact and combat the phenomenon of clandestine parties, according to the Minister of Health, Hugo de Jonge. Until now, the Dutch could accommodate two people over the age of 13 in their homes. This number is reduced to a single contact person.

Acceleration of vaccinations around the world

To date, according to an AFP count, at least 60 countries or territories, comprising 61% of the world’s population, have launched their vaccination campaign. But 11 countries concentrate 90% of the injected doses. The Russian authorities have filed an application for registration in the European Union of the Sputnik V vaccine and are awaiting a “first examination (of the documents sent, note) in February”. In Turkey, the authorities announced that they had vaccinated more than a million people in less than a week.

SEE ALSO – Covid-19: in Reims, vaccination is moving thanks to the “Vacci’bus”

Record of deaths in UK

The UK hit a new daily death record from Covid-19, with 1,820 dead on Wednesday. The United Kingdom announced that it will close its borders to arrivals from all countries in South America and Portugal as of Wednesday due to the new Brazilian variant. In Ireland, the famous St. Patrick’s Day Parade scheduled for March 17 in Dublin has been canceled for the second year in a row.

Maintenance of the Tokyo Olympics

Despite the global health situation, officials for the Tokyo Olympics, scheduled for this summer after being postponed last year, said they were “inflexible” on this new calendar, not excluding, however, that the competitions are held without spectators.

Emergency situation in Brazil

In Manaus, Amazonas state, doctors are struck by the virulence of the second wave, which has overwhelmed hospitals, facing a dramatic shortage of oxygen, and question the link with the Brazilian variants . The rapidity of the deterioration of the state of health of the patients is surprising.

Read also :Covid-19: the Brazilian variant suspected in the new disaster that hits the city of Manaus

The pandemic has killed a total of at least 2,058,226 people around the world, according to an AFP report on Wednesday.

these three variants that scare the world

January 21, 2021 by drbyos

DECRYPTION – After the discovery of a strain carrying many mutations in England, made responsible for the explosion of the epidemic, scientists are worried about the emergence of South African and Brazilian lines.

Since the start of the epidemic, the Covid-19 virus has continued to accumulate mutations giving rise to a very large number of different variants. Since most had more or less the same characteristics, the general public was not too familiar with these subtleties. But that changed with the discovery in England in mid-December of a much more contagious variant. The researchers then suspect a particular mutation among the twenty that distinguishes him, N501Y, to be at the origin of this increased contagiousness.

Read also :English variant of Covid-19: the threat becomes clearer

Four days later, another suspect variant is discovered in South Africa: if it does not have the same combination of mutations at all, it also carries this N501Y mutation. Shortly afterwards, he was discovered to be carrying a second E484K, which was also worrying because it seemed to allow him to escape, at least in part, the most effective antibodies produced by the recovered patients.

Last week, it was a third variant, detected in Brazil this time, which made

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THE CHEKING PROCESS – It had been one of the government’s main fears for several months. Thursday evening, Jean Castex finally expressed his relief. Is right ?

THE QUESTION. «Factory at Covid.It is with this colorful expression that Prime Minister Jean Castex had expressed his fear of an explosion in the number of contaminations with the end of year celebrations, Christmas and New Year.

Read also :Covid-19: is France in a “more than honorable situation” in Europe?

Finally, this Thursday evening, the head of government expressed his relief on this front: “We were able to spend the end of the year celebrations without an outbreak“. There has certainly not been an outbreak, but, for several days, have we not been witnessing an upsurge, for the moment certainly still contained? Could this be related?

CHECKS. Establishing such a causal link is not an easy exercise because of the various biases which make it difficult to assess the real number of cases. Since the start of the epidemic, we know that the available epidemiological data depend on the screening policy itself. If we screen a lot, we automatically obtain more positive tests, especially since the Covid is characterized by the contamination of many people who remain asymptomatic. Without an all-out screening policy, the latter would not necessarily think of being vaccinated. It is this halo of asymptomatic cases that we detect more or less depending on the size of the screening campaign. However, precisely, especially in France where tests are free, the French, anticipating a risk of contamination during family reunions, have decided to be tested before or during the holidays, for no particular reason other than a principle of prevention, which was also encouraged by part of the medical profession.

Daily number of tests carried out per 1000 inhabitants in different European countries. Our World in Data

We thus observe a very clear peak in the daily number of tests on December 24 at 7.87 tests per 1000 inhabitants. Just on Christmas Eve, nearly 1% of French people went to be tested! This peak is very much above that of November 3 (4.78 tests per 1000 inhabitants) which corresponded to the peak of the second wave. The French Christmas peak was only exceeded by the United Kingdom which, on January 11, carried out 8.41 tests per 1,000 inhabitants (and the bullish movement seems to be continuing). But the British case is special because the country is hit by a very strong epidemic recovery due to the “mutant” born in the south-east of England. In France, on the other hand, the daily number of tests has since fallen but it remains higher (around 4 or even 4.5 per 1,000 inhabitants) than between mid-November and mid-December (3 to 3.5).

Positivity rate for screening tests in France. Our World in Data

Given this change in the daily number of tests, we can study another variable, the positivity rate, which corresponds to the positive portion of tests. It had reached a peak on October 29 at 15.9% corresponding, again at the peak of the second wave. It then gradually descended due to the curfew and then the second confinement to reach a plateau between 6% and 6.5% from November 28 to December 15 (date of the end of confinement and the return of the curfew), then a sharp drop until Christmas. If we now observe this positivity rate from December 24 to today, we note a sharp increase in it from 2.9% to 6.5%.

Temperature and thermometer

Did the health measures allow a decrease until the holidays and did they then encourage a return of the epidemic? This hypothesis suffers from a bias: the massive increase in the number of tests carried out in anticipation and during the holidays has inevitably reduced the positivity rate artificially since many people have been tested as a precaution. We must therefore not confuse the temperature and the thermometer … In reality, the positivity rate (which is today around 6% or 6.5% since it stopped decreasing) seems to be returning to its level. end of November / beginning of December. With one difference, it is that in the meantime, and beyond the Christmas peak, the number of tests carried out has increased, which makes it possible to conclude that the number of cases of contamination has increased compared to this period.

Daily number of positive cases detected in France per million inhabitants. Our World in Data

This hypothesis is corroborated by the graph of the daily number of contaminations which shows a slight upward trend since the end of November, but which has accelerated markedly in recent days. Thus, on November 27, the daily number of contaminations for one million inhabitants was 193. This same value was 233 on January 5, that is to say a contained increase. On the other hand, from January 5 to 11, i.e. in just one week, the daily number of contaminations per million inhabitants rose from 233 to 320, which represents a much sharper increase (nearly + 50%). ). This epidemic recovery, although less strong than in other European countries (Spain, United Kingdom, Portugal in particular) is confirmed by a leading indicator and much more objective (because not dependent on the screening policy): the quantity of virus found. in wastewater. However, for more than a week, the government has been worried about such an increase in this indicator.

Read also :Covid-19: will we be able to choose our vaccine?

Beyond the biases inherent in the screening policy, there is therefore an epidemic resumption that has been observed since January 5. However, between the incubation time of the virus and the time to get tested and obtain the result, we can assume that the real start of this increase is around the 1^is January, which could therefore correspond to the New Year (but not so much for Christmas). In any case, there is a correlation between these two phenomena. But the causal link, if it exists, is much less obvious than it appears. Besides, if there was such a link, how to explain that Christmas did not have an observable effect (while the curfew was exceptionally lifted) but that the New Year did?

Asked about this, Doctor Martin Blachier does not favor the holiday hypothesis. “If the holidays had played a role in the epidemic recovery, we would not see a long rise like today, but a very clear daily peak», Explains the doctor, partner of the company Public Health Expertise. “In this case, I think that this recovery is mainly explained by the return to work, with the end of the holidays, but also the weariness with regard to teleworking. If we look at the data from Google Mobility, we can clearly see that work trips have increased again», Argues Dr Blachier.

Evolution of work shifts in relation to the reference. Google Mobility

«Many French people can no longer stay at home and some companies are wary of this device. Many people therefore return to the office a few days a week, which in fact represents a relaxation of barrier gestures.He continues. What is at stake is not only the hours spent at the office, during which the wearing of a mask is compulsory, but also the return of lunches between colleagues which are done within the companies themselves with dishes “to take away».

And the mutant?

Could the weather also play a role? “The effects of weather on the epidemic do exist, but the links between the two are very complex to identify. It’s not that simple: the colder it is, the more the virus thrives. As studies from Météo France have shown, there are very specific windows in terms of temperature and humidity in which the Covid tends to progress», Answers, skeptical, Martin Blachier.

Quid, finally, variants of the Covid, which are already circulating in the territory? If we are based on government estimates, this epidemic resumption can not already be explained by the British mutant insofar as it represents today only 1% of contaminations. Even if this figure is underestimated (which is possible because of the difficulties in terms of monitoring), it is difficult to imagine that it is to the point of being able to explain a 50% increase in the number of contaminations since January 1.

In the coming days, we will have to carefully observe the number of new hospitalizations and the number of deaths, two indicators which have the merit of being more objective than the number of contaminations, but the lack of being delayed in time because we do not he is not hospitalized and we do not die the day we are infected.

Number of new Covid hospitalizations in France. Public Health France

For now, the number of new hospitalizations has been relatively stable since the decline of the second wave, which seems to indicate that the epidemic has indeed reached a plateau from mid-November to the end of December. But the situation could mechanically evolve upwards in a few days if the increase in the number of cases of contamination is confirmed.

Daily number of deaths due to Covid per million people in France Our World in Data

Regarding the daily number of deaths, we find a notable increase since January 8 (latest value: 6.02 deaths per million inhabitants) after a significant decrease from December 25 to January 7 (between 4.2 and 4.8). The situation is again more or less the same as in the first half of December. Here again, we will have to observe the curves in the coming days.

In summary, there has been a slow epidemic recovery since the 1^isJanuary, which nevertheless seems to be accelerating in recent days. But there is nothing to indicate that this upsurge could be

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