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“Save face”. Why did they change their tone in Kiev after talking with Moscow

After Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky discussed the conflict in Donbass, Kiev suddenly agreed to fulfill the Minsk agreements signed in 2015. Before RIA Novosti, 07/28/2020

2020-07-28T08:00

2020-07-28T08:00

Sergei Belashko

the situation in the DPR and LPR

situation in Ukraine

presidential elections in Ukraine

Donetsk People’s Republic

Petr Poroshenko

Federation Council of the Russian Federation

Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

germany

Minsk

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Igor Malolin

On a hike, one Vladimir deciphered the essence of the agreements to another Vladimir … unobtrusively … he explained in a fatherly way …

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Felixys s

In short, without Russian troops in Kiev, Donbass cannot be dealt with with Ukraine. As with small children, disputes, until adults intervene, will swear endlessly.

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Donetsk People’s Republic

germany

Minsk

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sergey belashko, the situation in the dpr and lnr, the situation in ukraine, presidential elections in ukraine, donetsk people’s republic, petr poroshenko, federation council of the russian federation, verkhovna rada of ukraine, germany, minsk, in the world

MOSCOW, July 28 – RIA Novosti. After Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky discussed the conflict in Donbass, Kiev suddenly agreed to fulfill the Minsk agreements signed in 2015. Prior to that, Ukrainian officials regularly stated that Minsk was no longer relevant and could be abandoned. A truce was announced in the conflict zone. Does Ukraine really intend to fulfill its obligations – RIA Novosti figured out.

Decoding agreements

The telephone conversation between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine took place on Sunday evening. Kiev was the initiator. Following the conversation, the president’s office issued a sensational message.

In Kiev, they noted that “the parties also discussed the law on a special procedure for local self-government in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. <...> and the law on decentralization, which provides for amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine. “All these are the requirements of the Minsk Agreements (Second Minsk Agreements, Minsk-2), signed by Kiev in February 2015 after the defeat in Donbass. The document was agreed by representatives of the Normandy Four – leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France.

The surprise is that since the beginning of the year, Ukrainian representatives have been actively disavowing Minsk-2. Back on July 23, after a joint visit to Donbass with the President of the Swiss Confederation Simonetta Sommaruga, Zelensky said that the agreements are not entirely clear to Kiev: “We want to decipher each item of Minsk. Then we will see if we are able to do it or not, how perform and who is in charge. “

The Kremlin’s reaction followed. Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stressed: the provisions of “Minsk” are exhaustive, they do not need to be deciphered.

A week earlier, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a resolution on local elections in Ukraine. According to the Minsk Agreements, the government gains control over the state border in Donbass after holding elections in the self-proclaimed republics under the supervision of the OSCE. However, the Rada has set the date for voting throughout the country – with the exception of “certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.”

On the eve, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksey Reznikov said that the Minsk agreements “do not correspond to reality.” And a little earlier, the representative of Russia in the Contact Group for the settlement of the situation in Donbass, Boris Gryzlov, shared the opinion of his counterpart, the deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation, Alexander Merezhko. He believes that Kiev does not have to fulfill the agreements at all. For the Ukrainian authorities, Gryzlov quoted Merezhko as saying, “Minsk” is of a recommendatory nature. ”“ Such a statement was made for the first time in the negotiation process, ”the Russian diplomat commented.

In May, a group of negotiators formed by Zelensky “once again ruled out the possibility of securing the special status of ORDLO (certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. – Ed.) In the Constitution of Ukraine.”

In March, Zelensky himself announced the revision of Minsk. He tied the deadlines for the implementation of the agreements to the meeting in the “Normandy format”, which took place in Paris in December 2019. According to the Ukrainian president, a year after the summit, something needs to be decided: “If this continues longer, we must change the format and choose a different strategy.”

Imitation of violent activity

Aleksey Kondratyev, a member of the international committee of the Federation Council, believes that the Ukrainian president, having changed his tone, is trying to “save his political face.” “Knowing that Russia is not a party to the conflict, Zelenskiy imitates violent peacekeeping activities,” the senator added, recalling that after the Normandy summit, Ukraine was disrupting the implementation of the Minsk agreements.

Kiev’s unusual statements coincided with the beginning of another ceasefire in Donbass. The Ukrainian side agreed to its terms after lengthy negotiations with the self-proclaimed republics.

In order for the fighting to really stop, a number of measures were envisaged – they banned reconnaissance and sniper attacks, raised drones into the air, and deployed heavy weapons in populated areas. The controllers went to the advanced units.

But on the very first day, the commander of the Joint Forces Operation (as Kiev calls the military operation in Donbass), Vladimir Kravchenko, spoke about the shelling of Ukrainian positions. Representatives of the Donetsk People’s Republic have denied these claims. “We regard this statement as another information provocation of the Ukrainian side,” the DPR delegates specified.

With whom Ukraine fought

Sergei Belashko, director of the Agency for Social Communications, does not believe that a sharp turn in the rhetoric of Ukrainian officials means a change in political course. “These are just words. Change is if people in Kiev begin to arrest people who incite the war, earn money and speculate on it,” he emphasizes.

Belashko is skeptical about the truce. “A third force will intervene, unknown patriots or well-known patriots will open the fire,” the expert sneers. truce. So this is far from the first ceasefire. “

If a solution that suits everyone is not found, hostilities will resume, Belashko said. It all depends on political will. Even the exchange of “detainees” heightens tensions. “The parties take hostages in order to change them. Someone is persuaded to refuse to exchange. A human trafficking market has developed, where everyone has their own price,” the expert describes the realities of the war in Donbass.

For Kiev, the Minsk agreements are dangerous because they will have to negotiate with representatives of the self-proclaimed republics. The Ukrainian authorities claim that they are allegedly at war with Russia. “If Moscow leaves the dialogue on Donbass and it turns into a Ukrainian-Donbass dialogue, the legitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities will be in question. Who did we fight with, why did we increase the military, police and other budgets several times?” – Belashko says.

Ultimately, it all comes down to the political weakness of the incumbent president, the director of the Agency for Social Communications concludes. “Poroshenko’s supporters are relatively few, but they are. Zelensky does not have them, and if there is, they are virtual, ready to vote on the principle of” spite of everyone, we want new faces. ” “politics – from Tymoshenko to Biletsky or Boyko. And politicians, like voters, can easily reorient themselves to a new favorite,” Belashko notes.

The world is based on a solid foundation, the expert concludes: “The head of state, who proves to some unknown person that he is not a sucker, will not create a reliable base.”

From smuggling to careers

Deputy Director General of the Institute for National Strategy Alexander Kostin admits that the change in the tone of Kiev is really surprising. “If you look at the situation as a whole, no one in Ukraine will benefit from the end of the conflict. The course of confrontation with Russia is the basic consensus that holds the motley forces together. Accordingly, the war party is the leading one. It unites and legitimizes a wide range of actors – from volunteers and the media to the political beau monde. Many of the third or fourth echelon have come out on top. It is the aggressive course that preserves their monopoly positions, “the expert explains.

The same consensus is maintained among the siloviki. Some of them also owe the rise of the Maidan and the conflicts that followed. “A striking example is Interior Minister Arsen Avakov: on this wave he rose to a leading position. Peace and armies are not needed – the military get a purely financial profit from protecting smuggling and career growth. As soon as they stop shooting, everything will return to a natural, disadvantageous state.” – adds Kostin.

And Zelensky is for peace only in words, believes the deputy director of the Institute for National Strategy. “It is clear from the statements of the Ukrainian president – his changing shoes in the air was swift, but unambiguous. We remember how Zelensky gave back in situations of lesser importance: he allowed to hunt down a person close to him – Sergei Sivokho, who oversaw the project of civil dialogue with Donbass. Sivokho surrendered the entire power vertical “, – emphasizes Kostin.

The essence of the problem, the expert believes, is that Ukraine is a country without subjectivity, where the security forces are autonomous. As soon as the head of state tries to take tough action, representatives of the third forces – inside and outside the country – will either sabotage the orders of the formal Supreme Commander, or will act in the interests of their patrons.

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