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Oil continues to rise amid fears of a “historic jump”

Brent crude futures rose 1.4 dollars, or 1.3 percent, to 108.7 dollars a barrel, after the opening of European markets, while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude in the nearest maturity contracts, which expires today (Wednesday), rose 1.5 dollars, or 1.5 percent, to 104 dollars a barrel.

Abu Bakr al-Deeb, advisor to the Arab Center for Studies, head of the Forum for the Development of Arab Thought and researcher in international relations and political economy, said in a statement to “Sky News Arabia” that there are 5 reasons behind the rise in oil prices. Including fears of reduced supplies due to the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the escalation of the possibility of imposing harsher sanctions from America, Europe and their allies on Russia and its energy sector.

Al-Deeb said that among the factors are the closure of major fields and ports for export in Libya, as well as the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the world and the increasing possibilities of a trade war between Washington and China, the delay in the completion of the Iranian nuclear file as well as Houthi terrorism, one of the arms of the Iranian regime in the region, in addition to the increase in demand during the months coming.

Al-Deeb expected that oil and gas prices would soar to fantastic levels and might reach the limits of $150 per barrel, in the event that these conflicts escalated further and the wise did not intervene to stop them.

The advisor of the Arab Center for Studies explained that there is a great state of political uncertainty in the world, and the possibilities of wars are more than before, which undermines the situation in global markets, or imposes sanctions on Russia that could cause the suspension of oil exports from it, which will raise prices sharply as Russia is one of the world’s leading oil producers.

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Not optimistic forecast
Al-Deeb indicated that the demand for oil during the current year, especially in the OECD region, will increase by 1.8 million barrels to 46.4 million barrels on average daily, while demand in non-OECD countries will increase by 2.3 million barrels to 54.4 million barrels. barrels per day, as the OECD countries are witnessing increasing optimism as a result of economic growth, because the tax and monetary policy helps offset the effects of the “Omicron” boom on oil demand, and industrial activity will increase and boost the demand for diesel after transportation has recovered significantly.

Al-Deeb continues: “Air traffic is already showing signs of recovery,” noting that in the non-OECD region, China, India and the rest of Asia are the main drivers, accounting for more than two-thirds of the growth in demand, and the average production of crude oil has reached The global market last January reached 98.69 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.71 million barrels per day from last December.

El-Deeb added that oil prices continued to rise after a sudden decrease in US crude oil stocks, while investors are awaiting the outcome of US-Iranian nuclear talks that may lead to a rapid increase in crude supplies in global markets.

He explained that during 2022, oil demand is expected to grow at a rate of 4.2 million barrels per day thanks to the expected growth of most major economies, and the supportive fiscal and monetary policies to compensate for the negative effects of the “Omicron” virus on demand, and in conjunction with the growth of global demand for oil to record levels in 2022 and 2023, That could push the price of oil to astronomical levels by 2023.

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El-Deeb indicated that Brent crude futures rose $1.50, or 1.3 percent, to $113.20 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased 98 cents, or 0.9%, to $107.93 a barrel, and both crudes rose before the Easter holiday by more than 2.50% a day. Last Thursday, due to news that the European Union may impose a ban on Russian oil imports.

Libya’s production falls to less than half

He stressed the possibility of a decrease in Libyan oil production by more than half, as it produces about 1.2 million barrels per day.

Al-Deeb explained that the plans to withdraw from the strategic stockpile of America and thirty other countries did not and will not succeed in curbing oil prices in the medium and long term, as oil prices today recorded 112.03 dollars per barrel for futures contracts for the global standard, and futures contracts for US West Texas Intermediate crude recorded 107.18 dollars per barrel. Its highest level in three weeks.

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