New lockdown-themed DPCM: that’s when it could arrive

A new DPCM that announce a second lockdown in Italy it could be inevitable.

The wait for the decrees of the President of the Council of Ministers now has a taste of habit. Legislative instrument immediately used to implement restrictive measures to combat the effects of the coronavirus pandemic in Italy avoiding parliamentary delays, the next DPCM with further limitations it may be necessary in a few days, as the premier himself covertly confirms Giuseppe Conte.

Remain to carefully monitor the number of daily infections (the critical threshold has been set at 35,000 / 40,000 infections per day) and the effects of the recently introduced measures.

New DPCM on lockdown, that’s when it could arrive

It is no longer possible to pretend nothing has happened: we have reached a new record of infections according to the data contained in the bulletin of October 28 (24,991 in a single day).

On the occasion of Conte’s speech in the Chamber of Deputies on Wednesday, the possible implementation of new restrictions on production, commercial and movement of people will be considered by the Council of Ministers only “after evaluating the effects»Of the measures contained in the latest Prime Ministerial Decree dated 25 October, which above all ordered the total closure of gyms and swimming pools and the stop of the activities of bars, restaurants and clubs from 6 pm, making it necessary for the newborn Refreshments decree.

The assessment by the Government will be carried out “over at least two weeks“. It is therefore useless, according to the premier’s words, to hypothesize phantom lockdowns and new stops before 14 days from the date of validity of the last measures, which would lead to aiming as the next date nail Monday 9 November. In full government style, should the situation deteriorate in the next few days, a new Prime Ministerial Decree would be developed in the days immediately preceding it, supposedly between Saturday 7 and Sunday 8 November.

Looking at the Christmas period, the situation becomes even more uncertain. The hypothetical measures included in the next DPCM could be valid for about a month, until mid-December, so as to hope to have contributed to lowering the growth rate of the epidemiological curve, saving Christmas and the consumption boom that traditionally brings with it. self.

How could the second lockdown in Italy be

An intervention by the Conte government with a lockdown theme is not certain but it is becoming increasingly probable. Its urgency becomes stronger with every daily bulletin published by the Civil Protection. However, the executive knows full well that returning to a block-style lockdown inaugurated last March would mean give the coup de grace to the Italian economy.

For this reason the Council of Ministers, with the next DPCM, could rather opt for a lockdown «soft», following the recent decision of France announced on Wednesday evening by Macron.

Inspired by this provision, any new Italian lockdown would include:

  • open companies, offices and factories;
  • closed shops with the exception of food products;
  • schools and open public services;
  • travel limitation, only the home-work, home-school journeys are permitted to accompany younger children, to go to the supermarket or for health reasons;
  • stop moving outside your own Municipality or Region of residence;
  • possible localized lockdowns in the most critical areas.

However, for days the premier has not missed an opportunity to underline how much his intentions all point to avoid another lockdown: the restrictions contained in the latest DPCM “they serve to manage the pandemic without being overwhelmed and to avoid a new lockdown, which would damage the economy even moreConte specified Wednesday in front of the Chamber.

Italy is in scenario 3, in scenario 4 it will be lockdown

On 12 October the Ministry of Health, in concert with the National Institute of Health (ISS) and the Scientific Technical Committee, published a document entitled “Prevention and response to COVID-19”, Within which the scenarios in which Italy could be a protagonist in the near future are defined.

As confirmed on Wednesday by Conte, today Italy is in full swing 3: «the epidemic is rapidly worsening and is compatible, at national level, with the type 3 scenario“- explained the premier, who specifies how this context makes it necessary”the interruption of some social-cultural activities which are more at risk».

Scenario 4, on the other hand, would be triggered in the event that the daily infections were to exceed 35,000 / 40,000 units, as defined at the last majority meeting.

This situation would therefore require a new lockdown (and a related Prime Ministerial Decree to announce it), but in a softer version to have the least possible impact on the health of the Italian economy, which would have the above characteristics.