Morena has an advantage in 4 of 6 states – El Financiero

Morena’s candidates for governor lead the preferences in four of the six states that will renew the state government next Sunday, June 5, according to the most recent polls by EL FINANCIERO.

Las broader advantages of Morena are observed in Oaxaca and Quintana Roowith 17 and 15 points difference with respect to second place.

In Oaxaca, Salomón Jara (Morena-PT-PVEM-PUP) obtains 47 percent of the effective intention to vote, while Alejandro Avilés, standard bearer of the PRI and PRD, captures 30 percent, and Natividad Díaz, of the PAN, 10 percent. hundred.

In Quintana Roo, Mara Lezama (Morena-PT-PVEM-FXM) has 45 percent of the preferences, surpassing Laura Fernández (PAN-PRD-Confidence for Quintana Roo), who has 30 percent.

In Hidalgo and Tamaulipas, the alliance led by Morena is also going ahead, but with the advantage in those states of nine points. In Hidalgo, Julio Menchaca (Morena-PT-Panal) obtains 45 percent support, while Carolina Viggiano (PAN-PRI-PRD) has 36 percent. Last month the difference between them was just four points.

In Tamaulipas, Américo Villarreal (Morena-PT-PVEM) obtains 49 percent of the preferences, nine points above César Verástegui (PAN-PRI-PRD), who is favored with 40 percent support.

In the two remaining entities, Morena’s candidates are in second place. In Aguascalientes, the PAN-PRI-PRD candidate, Teresa Jiménez, has a nine-point lead, obtaining 46 percent of the preferences, while the brunette Nora Ruvalcaba has 37 percent. Last month the difference between them was six points.

In Durango, Esteban Villegas (PAN-PRI-PRD) has, according to the poll, 46 percent of the intention to vote, just four points above Marina Vitela (Morena-PT-PVEM-RSP), who has 42 percent. hundred. The Durango electorate maintains a statistical tie between the two leading candidates.

The surveys reveal that the candidates of Movimiento Ciudadano are far from competing for the first place in the six entities, obtaining their best performance, until now, in Hidalgo, where Francisco Xavier Berganza captures 13 percent of the preferences, and the support lowest in Oaxaca, where Alejandra Morlan has 7 percent. In the other four entities, EMC support varies between 10 and 12 percent.

Methodology: State-level surveys conducted by telephone to 3,500 Mexicans with valid voting credentials from April 20 to 30, 2022. A probabilistic sampling of residential and cell phones was carried out in each of the states. The number of interviews per state is 600 for Aguascalientes, Durango, Hidalgo, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas, and 500 for the state of Oaxaca.

With a confidence level of 95%, the estimated margin of error for the states with 600 interviews is +/- 4.0% and +/-4.4% for Oaxaca. The rejection rate for interviews was 66%, on average, with a minimum of 61% in Tamaulipas and a maximum of 70% in Hidalgo.

“The results reflect the electoral preferences and opinions of the respondents at the time of the study and are valid for that specific population and dates.” A copy of the study and its methodological characteristics are delivered to each of the corresponding state electoral institutes.

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