With an expected inflation of 25% in the second semester, economists do not rule out that the blue will follow in its footsteps and accelerate its evolution. This foresee
On Tuesday, the price of blue calmed down a bit and fell $ 2, to $ 176, after a Monday in which it had reached its maximum price so far in 2021, when it touched $ 180, as a result of a rise of $ 5 in a single day. A) Yes, the gap between the illegal price and the wholesale price was close to 85%.
The jump, according to specialists, was as a consequence of the new measures for the operation of bonds for the purchase of the dollar Cash With Liqui (CCL), which anticipates a bullish outlook in the exchange market. So, beyond the eventual decline, it appears that the illegal dollar has not yet peaked.
This is what the economist of the Eco GO consultancy Sebastián Menescardi suggests to iProfesional, stating that “the price of blue is likely to trend upward, given the usual dollarization prior to electoral periods and the inflationary context, a situation that, in addition, is exacerbated these days by the greater retail demand that seeks to protect the Christmas bonus and higher disposable income “.
As the blue rises and its difference with the officer widens the gap
It is still missing for the expected maximum
With this price and with the proximity of the electoral process, which generates a tendency towards dollarization on the part of savers, more voices indicate that it is going to be worth $ 200 in the coming months.
“Towards the end of the year, the exchange rate gap will be expressed in a real dollar between $ 190 and $ 200Although the Government seeks to comply with the official budget exchange rate of $ 102, “the economist Carlos Melconian warned a few days ago. And he is not the only one who indicates it.
The economic, financial and business analyst, Salvador Di Stéfano, does not hesitate to affirm that eThe gap is likely to be 120%. “This means that we will see a blue priced between $ 200 and $ 240 because the dollar is going to be a refuge for many Argentines towards the end of the year, “he says.
In the same vein, Christian Buteler, an expert investment economist, assures that, although it is very difficult to put a price on the blue dollar, he does not doubt that it can reach $ 200 or $ 220 by the end of the year.
However, he points out that “we are talking about a 17% rise, while inflation is going to be around 25%, so it goes to higher than that percentage. “He warns that it is impossible to separate these two elements, especially when we talk about the blue, a dollar in which the Government cannot intervene, at least directly, as it does with the financial and official.
Towards the elections, a rise in the dollar is seen.
The reasons for the rise
When looking for an explanation for this rise, Di Stéfano begins by describing the sequence of the dollar this year. “It had an extraordinary effect, which was the payment of the wealth tax. When the payment of this extraordinary contribution was determined, the gap began to fall because those who had to pay it sold dollars to do so and the blue remained very stable,” he says. .
This happened in January 2021 and, in March of this year, the gap between blue and official reached 54%. The blue became the cheapest dollar on the market and it ranked below the solidarity, the MEP and the CCL.
But Di Stéfano points out that, once this tax was canceled, people began to buy back those dollars they had sold and a sequence began. “The gap went from 54% to 84% today and, today, the blue is at $ 176,” he describes.
This, according to their analysis, responds to the fact that There is a general feeling in society that spending is going to increase strongly in the face of the lectures since we have a drag on a rise in pandemic spending and a loss of income due to the closure of activities due to the pandemic.
“The effect of the pandemic generates less public income and this adds to the fact that pandemic and electoral spending will increase the deficit. As Argentina does not have international credit and has very little domestic credit,” he says. This means that the Government is having to resort to the monetary issue to finance the public budget and, faced with this situation, people try to cover themselves by buying dollars.
The BCRA has firepower, but the blue escapes its orbit of intervention.
What to do to control it?
The problem is that the government has little influence in the illegal dollar market. So how can you counteract this upward trend? Menescardi, points out that his best tool is to reduce the trajectory of the inflation and your expectations, to improve the real yields of the rates in pesos and to slightly calm the demand for blue.
Along the same lines, Buteler indicates that, “if you want to stop it, you must control the inflation first of all. “Note that another possibility is to continue intervening the other markets of the dollar to keep them quiet but that, to do so, the Government would have to eat part of the buffer of reserves that it made this year as a result of the liquidation of soybeans and the Extraordinary Contribution of the Great Fortunes.
He warns that this strategy will work or not depending on how many pesos he dumps into the market.
As iProfesional reported, from November of last year to June the monetary authority would have used about 1,100 million to contain the gap. In the last two weeks, due to the greater pressures -according to the market- he had to “spend” a total of US $ 200 million.. This led the BCRA and the CNV to impose new restrictions on the operation of the CCL and the MEP.
The truth is that, today, the Government has room to intervene and a drastic jump is not in sight for now, but it ensures that everything will depend on how many pesos there are in the market.
Thus, Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica says that “the high power of fire that the BCRA has today, with the direct intervention selling securities that it has in its portfolio and, in turn, operating on the expectations by means of the futures market, they allow us to infer that it can keep the gap between the CCL and the official dollar controlled for at least the next six months “.
If so, consider that, with a gap like the current one (at 74%), it is logical to expect a financial dollar about $ 190 by the end of the year and, although Caprarulo considers it unwise to make projections for the price of blue given the small size of that market and the high volatility it presents, taking into account that the CCL is usually a parameter for the price of illegal, there is consensus between several analysts in that we will have a blue of between $ 200 and $ 250 for December.
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