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A little over two weeks before the PSD’s live, there was a real rush to the ATM. In the last week it was possible — between the 4th and 10th of May — 8,669 militants Social Democrats paid their dues in the party, which represents one-fifth of the electoral universe in the direct elections of May 28.
Most of the movements took place in the G4 districts (Porto, Braga, Lisbon and Aveiro), where, in the same seven days, membership fees were paid to 5,308 militants (73% of total last-minute payments). It is in these places that the largest municipalities are located, where everything is decided. The growth of voters shows the commitment in municipalities related to both candidates, but the favoritism does not change: Luís Montenegro leads the way. And it’s not just a little.
The surprise that gave the victory to Rui Rio against the favoritism of Paulo Rangel in the last straights continues to feed the hope of Jorge Moreira da Silva. But Luís Montenegro did not only has more support in the structures than the MEP had, as Moreira da Silva has much less support (even in the structures) than those who collected the leader in office — who in his favor still had the idea that he could overthrow António Costa in the legislative elections that were then approaching.
The district that grew the most was Braga, where Moreira da Silva believes he can make a surprise, playing with the home factor: he is from Famalicão and from the district of Braga. But if it was in that district that there were more last-minute fees paid in recent weeks, it was also there that the trend, which two weeks ago could be said to be indefinite, is falling for Luís Montenegro. This despite the fact that Moreira da Silva’s supporters have shown signs of mobilization.
Shotgun count. Montenegro’s favorite, Moreira da Silva with faith in Rio’s heritage
The three largest municipalities in the district (Barcelos, Famalicão and Vila Verde) grew by around 500 militants each in the last week of regularization of quotas. This shows that the correct answers did not change the correlation of forces. It is important, even in terms of the general percentage, that Carlos Eduardo Reis, the campaign director of Moreira da Silva, is able to affirm the municipality of Barcelos as the largest in the district in terms of voters, but that is not enough.
Barcelona will have 1810 militants able to vote (461 more than on the 4th of May) and the council should be easily won by Jorge Moreira da Silva. Carlos Eduardo Reis should not give a chance, in what will be an important victory to boost the vote of the former leader of the JSD.
On the other hand, Vila Nova de Famalicão, which fell naturally to Luís Montenegro — despite Moreira da Silva being a native of the city — grew by 480 militants (to 1410). It is impossible to ignore that Montenegro has by its side Paulo Cunhathe former mayor and district leader, who whenever he got involved in an election, managed to get his candidate to win the council.
Montenegro comes out even stronger of these hits of the last few weeks from the moment when Vila Verde has the largest payment of last-minute quotas in the country: there are 583 more militants, in a total of 1015. José Manuel Fernandeshead of the delegation of PSD MEPs and strong man from Vila Verde (where he was mayor for many years and where his wife is mayor), declared its support unequivocally to Esphense on the 10th of May. It’s a show of strength. From José Manuel Fernandes and, by extension, from Montenegro.
Braga (141 more voters) and Guimarães (127 more voters) also grew, but they do not have as much impact on the district’s final accounts. The former parliamentary leader Hugo Soares will help Montenegro in Braga (Rui Morais is with Moreira da Silva, but it should not be enough to win the council) and the vice president of the PSD, André Coelho Lima, should be on the side of Moreira da Silva, which should be enough to beat Guimarães (despite Emídio Guerreiro being with Montenegro).
Fact: with the new payment of quotas, in seven days Braga once again surpassed Lisbon as the second largest district. Trend: Montenegro is now clearly the favourite.
Porto grows less than Braga with last minute payments, but remains the largest district with 7650 voters able to vote. The 23% growth at the outset favors who is best in the district: Luís Montenegro, who manages to gather supporters who were with Rio and Rangel in the last live matches.
Luís Montenegro has the district leader, Alberto Machado, who supported Rangel, but also has Paulo Rios Oliveira, the district representative of Rio. It’s the best of both worlds. This is replicated for Gaia, which re-enters the list of six municipalities with over 1,000 militants (1097 including last-minute payments), where Luís Montenegro has on his side leaders of two important local factions: António Cancela Moura, who had supported Rangel, and Firmino Pereira, who supported Rio in November.
Montenegro is still ahead in Gondomar, Trofa, Lousada, Penafiel and Valongo. In Maia, the trend is now also favorable to Luís Montenegro. The confidence is such that, as the Observer wrote in early May, the candidacy counts on having about 80% of the votes in this district.
Jorge Moreira da Silva will not have facilities in any district, but he continues to compete for Aveiro. The largest municipality continues to be Santa Maria da Feira, which still increases by 184 voters (to a total of 914). If it is true that the district leader and local mayor, Emídio Sousasupports Montenegro without hesitation, it is also confirmed that Jorge Moreira da Silva will have Antonio Topa Gomes as district attorney. The weight of the Topa family made Rangel lose out in the municipality, despite the fact that he also had, at the time, the support of the mayor of Santa Maria da Feira.
The municipality of Aveiro, which is also growing — although less — is equally important for the district’s accounts. On the other hand, the tradition is for the municipality to split in half. On the one hand, the troops of Victor Martins, the former president of the municipality (who was with Rangel and won the Rio tangent in the municipality); on the other, the mayor, Ribau Esteves. If everything follows the natural way of things, the first faction will be with Montenegro and the second with Moreira da Silva, expecting a division of votes in the municipality.
And if Montenegro should easily win in its land, Espinho — where it does not lack some antibodies — the municipality of Ovar is currently much more relevant for the district’s accounts. Salvador Malheiro, who is in the shadows helping his friend Jorge Moreira da Silva, has 523 people able to vote in the municipality it controls.
Salvador Malheiro is Moreira da Silva’s greatest asset in the district and only he can prevent Luís Montenegro from winning Aveiro. It’s an open district.
Lisbon remains an important district, but the last-minute payment pushed it to third place, staying behind Porto and being overtaken by Braga. In the last seven days of payment of quotas, the number of militants able to vote increased by more than 1,000, a growth of 22%.
Within the district, the municipality of Lisbon remained the largest in the country (with 2167) and still has 336 more voters. If in the last live shows in which he participated, the Espinho native neglected Lisbon, now Luís Montenegro has the support of the most influential trends, having by his side several factions and local chiefs. With the former parliamentary leader are figures such as the leader of the PSD/Lisbon and president of the parish council of Estrela, Luís Newton, or the Gonçalves family.
Moreira da Silva does not have great weapons to counter Montenegro’s force in the capital, nor in other municipalities in the district. Cascais remains the second largest municipality in the district and adds another 193 voters, out of a total of 878 able to vote. even if the duo Careers – Pinto Luzthe most influential in the county and in the county, don’t fall in love with Luís Montenegro, your troops are working for the candidate who breaks with Rui Rio the most.
In Sintra, the third largest municipality, as the Observer had already advanced, Luís Montenegro has the president of the PSD/Sintra, Ana Sofia Bettencourtleaving Moreira da Silva to the other wing — closer to the former candidate for autarchy Marco Almeida.
The representative chosen by Jorge Moreira da Silva in Lisbon, the chairman of the Portuguese Bar Association, Ana Rita Cavacoshows how the former leader of JSD chooses more media figures and with less weight on the device.
These are figures who, like those of the Francisco Pinto Balsemão party or Manuela Ferreira Leite, are worth, in practical terms, their own vote. And, of course, the media weight they have — although this is usually worth little in direct elections. The device is usually stronger than the marked barons.
Madeira continues to be the district (in this case, the region) that counts the most outside the big four. There are 2266 militants, who should fall overwhelmingly for Luís Montenegro. The Esphense has not only the president of the PSD/Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque, as its representative, but also has the historic Alberto João Jardim. With this combination of factions, it is very difficult for Moreira da Silva to succeed in Madeira.
In the Azores, which have less electoral weight than some municipalities on the mainland, Montenegro also managed to have the support of the president of the regional government, Jose Manuel Boleiro. The fact that Moreira da Silva said that he would not have accepted the agreement with Chega nos Açores, made him lose any chance of having the support of the PSD / A structure.
In Viseu, Leiria, Santarém, Coimbra, Guarda, Viana do Castelo and Setúbal Luís Montenegro remains the favorite and the fluctuations in the number of voters are not as significant as in the largest districts.
Twelve days away from the live, Luís Montenegro is even more favorite. Moreira da Silva’s supporters are even “working” well (they have not failed to mobilize structures in the municipalities in which he is a favorite), but that will not be enough to cancel out the multiple support that the Espinho native continues to accumulate.
The former leader of JSD, however, continues to believe that the structures will not have as much influence on the final accounts. In the recent interview he gave Observer, he even spoke with some contempt for the shotgun count and accounts that are done to support:
“If people continue to calculate, as I have seen, assuming that there are vote holders, they will be wrong. They can continue to make the analysis they want, based on the assumption that, in the PSD, the circumstance of a leader supporting takes away I don’t know how many people just because they live in the same district or in the same municipality”. Will you be right?