“Lost in Diversity”: Everyday television around the year 2030

Netflix, Amazon and Apple produce their own films and series, SRF or the CH media broadcasters stream, youtube and tiktoken go wild: The TV market is currently being shaken up. And everyone rows and works and wants to be at the forefront.

But where is the journey actually going? What will soon fizzle out again? And what will prevail?

With so much momentum that has come into the moving image business in the last ten years, it’s hard to see what the market might look like in just another ten years.

In a new study, Deloitte Germany tries to give a few points of reference with four general scenarios of what TV world we could live in around the year 2030.

In the “Universal Supermarket” scenario, a few global players have taken the lead. They control the TV and video market and all steps along the value chain, including production, content collection and delivery and even the direct customer relationship.

Like big supermarkets, each of the digital platform companies offers an extensive range of global and national content, differing only in a few exclusive productions and sports rights.

Scenario two was dubbed “Content Endgame” by the consulting firm’s study makers. Here, big content owners are the winners of market change. They have grown vertically along the entire value chain, keeping their content off the digital platforms to distribute it through their own channels and build direct customer relationships.

In the “Broadcasters’ Revenge” scenario, the BBC, ARD and SRG have secured a strong position in the TV and video cosmos. They now function as digital platforms themselves and provide on-demand content.

«During the transformation process, broadcasters have developed excellent digital capabilities. They have opened up new services such as targeted advertising and recommendation functions that were previously dominated by the digital platform companies.

And if none of this is actually true, and nothing is entirely wrong either – which is what forecasts tend to be – then it probably boils down to scenario four: “Lost in Diversity”.

By 2030 nobody will really have the upper hand in the television and video market. Everyone joins in as best they can. Production and distribution are more or less separate. The global players have tied up with the local broadcasters. And the audience can lose themselves in a limitless variety of channels, content and clicks.

Even in 2022, the Klein Report does not seem entirely unfamiliar with this.

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