The first round of the 2022 legislative elections demonstrated that the ballot for this Sunday, June 19 was going to be played in a pocket handkerchief. A winner with 25.8% of the votes, the presidential coalition (Together!) is closely followed by Nupes (25.7%) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. In third position, the National Rally totaled 18.7% of the votes cast. Abstention reached a record level, reaching 52.49%. What about this Sunday? Will the French confirm these trends in the second round? Here’s what the latest polls say.
No “absolute majority” for Macron, according to the Elabe poll for BFMTV, the Express with SFR
Together ! (Renaissance, the MoDem, Horizons and Agir) is at the top of the results of the Elabe poll for BFMTV, the Express with SFR. The presidential coalition would however lose feathers compared to 2017, according to this survey, since it would collect between 255 and 295 seats. This is between 55 and 95 seats less than in 2017. Coming in second position, Nupes (France Insoumise, Europe Ecologie Les Verts, Socialist Party and Communist Party) would total between 150 and 200 seats (between 77 and 127 more than in 2017). We would then find the LR / UDI / DVD candidates (between 55 and 75 seats) and the National Rally (between 30 and 50 seats). Still according to this survey published on June 17, the participation rate would be between 44 and 47% for this second round. We could therefore once again see a strong abstention during this election.
Victory for Macron but uncertainty remains, according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for Radio France and France Télévisions
As in the previous survey, the presidential coalition Together! wins the largest number of seats (between 265 and 305 seats), according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for Radio France and France Télévisions. This would therefore not guarantee President Emmanuel Macron to win an absolute majority (set at 289 seats). The Nupes de Mélenchon could hope for between 140 and 180 seats. The LR / UDI / DVD candidates should have between 60 and 80 seats, according to this same poll. The National Rally would get 20 to 50 deputies. The participation rate would amount to 47%, according to the survey published this Friday, June 18.
Together!, Nupes, LR and RN: here is what the Ifop-Fiducial survey says for LCI and Sud Radio
The presidential coalition would obtain between 265 and 300 seats in the second round of the legislative elections, according to the Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI and Sud Radio. Emmanuel Macron therefore has no certainty of obtaining the absolute majority, which he covets. The survey published on June 16 places Nupes in second position, with 180 to 210 seats. The Republicans and UDI would then have 40 to 65 seats and the RN 20 to 40 seats. If these latest figures are confirmed for the RN, it would be a great victory for Marine Le Pen. Indeed, by exceeding the bar of 15 elected members and therefore 15 seats (which seems to be a good start), the far-right party could form a group in the National Assembly.
Follow live the announcement of the results first this Sunday on LaLibre.be
As during the presidential election, the French media are prohibited from broadcasting any information relating to the results of these legislative elections before 8 p.m. This is not the case in Belgium, where LaLibre.be will deliver the estimates and the first results to you, in the afternoon.