La BCE a jou la prudence, selon Columbia Threadneedle Investments

No big surprises at today’s meeting, since the market did not really expect a reduction in Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) purchases like a few weeks ago “, comments Adrian Hilton, Head of Fixed Income. and global currencies and emerging debt at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

“But Ms. Lagarde seemed to describe a Board of Governors which only very cautiously increases its optimism on European economic prospects,” continues the professional.

According to him, by modifying the GDP growth and inflation projections slightly upwards for 2021 and 2022, but leaving the outlook for 2023 unchanged, the ECB has indicated that it does not yet see the foundations for a sustained recovery. long-term growth, in particular if the labor market remains very sluggish.

“We know that the central bank is sensitive to a potential tightening of funding conditions through higher market rates. It is possible that the rise in yields on bunds last month, when 10-year bonds sharply threatened to collapse. ‘change with a positive return, has put the nerves of the ECB in me and made it cautious about a premature withdrawal of political support, “concludes Adrian Hilton.

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