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Is Covid more dangerous than driving? How scientists analyze the risks of Covid.

Dr Byerly suggested that she imagine her mother-in-law if she died 1 in 10 times she used the toilet on any given day. “Oh, 10% is terrible,” recalls her mother-in-law.

Dr Byerley’s estimates, for example, showed that an average 40-year-old vaccinated more than six months ago had the same risk of hospitalization after injury as a person who died in a car crash for 170 crosses. -country. road trips. (Modern vaccinia vaccines provide better protection than older vaccines, complicating these predictions.)

For immunocompromised people, the risks are higher. Dr. Byerly estimates that a 61-year-old woman who is not immune to infection is three times more likely to die within five years of being diagnosed with stage 1 breast cancer. transplant recipients are twice as likely to die from Covid as someone who died climbing Mount Everest.

With the most vulnerable in mind, Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, took off last month. Figure out how low cases should fall To get people to stop masking indoors without endangering people with severely weakened immune systems.

Imagine a hypothetical person who didn’t get vaccinations, wore a good mask, took hard-to-get preventative medications, attended gatherings and occasional shopping, but didn’t work in person. It aims to keep people’s chances of getting an infection below 1% over a four-month period.

To meet that threshold, he found, the state would have to keep the mask indoors until transmission drops below 50 weekly cases per 100,000 people — a much tighter limit than what the CDC currently uses, but it nevertheless stated that it offers a standard for targeting . .

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“If you just said, ‘We’ll take the masks off when things get better,'” Dr Faust said – that’s true, I hope – but that’s not really helpful because people don’t know what what “better” means.

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