As explained by the Department of Economic Studies of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange, given andhe high pace recorded throughout the year, the accumulated settlement reaches US $ 25,670 million, also a record that exceeds by 70% the record of 2020 and by 27% the second historical maximum of 2011. In this context, to continue With these prices and sales rhythm, the foreign exchange settlement would be around US $ 32,000 million this year.
Consequently, the field would contribute around US $ 6.3 billion during the last quarter of the year, a figure that is also an absolute record for this period and that marks an increase of 23.5% compared to October-November-December of the year. last year.
Regarding the commercial scenario, as explained by the Cereal Exchange: “the maintenance of the scenario of high prices encourages the sales of the producers. But the increase in the exchange rate gap plays in the opposite direction, discouraging sales, especially in the new campaign. Sales for the 2020/21 campaign continue their dynamism. While the sales of the 2021/22 campaign register a reduction in the growth rate. In the accumulated to date, the 2021/22 sales of corn are 26% below those of the previous season and those of soybean -9% ”.
For its part, the Agroindustrial monitor prepared by CIARA-CEC warns that with regard to soybeans, in January and September of this year the producer sold a total of 25.2 million tons. In the first quarter, sales reached 7.9 million tons (31% of the total). In the second quarter, April-June, sales reached 10.53 million tons (41% of the total), and in the third quarter, July-September. the volume sold reached 7.065 million tons (28% of the total). In this framework, taking into account the lower sales volumes registered in recent days, it is very possible that during Oct.-Nov. the volume of supply of soybeans by producers is decreasing, leaving physical soybeans in the hands of producers with greater financial capacity and the possibility of retaining it.
Regarding corn, from the beginning of the year to the end of September, producers sold a total of 26.730 million tons, against 16.497 million tons that were sold in the same period of 2020. “The high volume of sales is unprecedented. which occurred in the first two months, modifying the historical commercialization pattern. Towards the end of September the trend indicates a drop in the volume of sales by producers. From now on it is expected that the supply will be less and less, consolidating the lower volume of supply of corn available from the producers ”, as indicated by CIARA-CEC.
In short, the local economy will have fewer dollars between October and November compared to the high volumes that the field contributed until last September, but the truth is that the scenario would not be so alarming, as long as the Government knows how to properly manage the bridge towards December, which is when a higher liquidation of agro-dollars would be restarted.