How much will the dollar and inflation reach at the end of the year, according to private banks

In its Survey of Market Expectations (REM)the Banco Central revealed the current photo that shows the market analyzes regarding the main indices of the economy and, particularly, what are your projections to December 2022. In the case of the dollar, they calculate that it will be above $150, while prices will have an accumulated variation greater than 60%.

These short- and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts are made by local and foreign experts on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy, including 28 consulting firms and local and international research centers and 14 financial entities in Argentina. In this case, they are the results of the survey carried out between April 27 and 29, 2022.

According to analyst estimates, “at the end of April 2022, market analysts projected that retail inflation for the current year will be 65.1% ia (5.9 pp higher than the previous survey)”.

Similarly, the REM participants revised the inflation forecasts for 2023, placing it at 50.5% yoy (3.1 pp more than the REM for March) and for 2024 at 43.7% yoy (2.8 pp higher than the previous survey).

Regarding core inflation, those who participated in the REM forecast that it would reach 64.2% yoy at the end of 2022 (4.2 pp higher than the March survey).

In turn, in the short term, for April 2022, the median of the estimates of the current survey was 5.6% per month. For March 2022, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested an inflation of 5.5% per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 6.7%.

Regarding the value of dollarREM analysts slightly corrected their monthly projections of the nominal exchange rate.

They expect the exchange rate to reach $155 per dollar in December 2022and that it is located at $226 per dollar at the end of 2023.

Those who more accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons project that the average nominal exchange rate by the end of December 2022 will reach $152.57/US$.

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